Cobra's Market View

First of all, today's last day for those who registered but haven't posted anything to reply here viewtopic.php?f=2&t=195. I've turned off the registration temporarily. Will reopen the registration again this Saturday after I eliminated all the spammers. Thanks.

Huge gap down open, below yesterday's low, now it's critical, if the usual NFP pattern goes on, the market should reverse almost immediately upon the open and continue up the whole day, if today eventually closes in green or very close to green, then chances are very high that Cobra Impulse System would ask you to cover your short. Just a reminder, not saying it'll happen, my first priority for today of course will be trading on the downside unless that NFP usual pattern does happen.
Liq chart from stocktiming.

Cougar asked me to evaluate PALL (palladium). A couple observations:

1. This is a very cyclical stock with predictable highs and lows based on cycles. The next cycle is on June 15th, so expect a turn there.
2. It is showing clear RSI support and resistance levels -- 50 was support in a bull trend and 60 has been resistance in this bear trend (the bear trend seems in tact)
3. The stock itself is in consolidation mode, sideways trading, after a big trend move. As long as 68 isn't taken out, I'd be bullish biased for the longer-run.
4. Could be a kind of inverted head & shoulders working. If so, expect a bounce at 72.50 to 73

cobra, in your view, are the chances higher that we reverse to the upside? I know in last night report you mentioned 82% prob to go long last night, still thinking we can go higher today? thank you

Good Morning.
TGIF.
Expecting a break of the red channel instead of a bounce.
ES: http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/06/es_03.html

first shown on another website many weeks ago , and most recently on 5/27 .....

Thanx Cobra! I'll try to follow your Impulse System today. But all my shorts are actually indices puts and VIX calls. Thus, the unloading will be dependent on the early moves of the VIX. Being fast and cool will be very important, to get the best deal.
The sold to open AAPL 350 weekly calls will close wothless...No worry there....LOL!

I will be going long SPY and USO via calls at the open. For oil, the stop is obvious at the pink line - prices should not breach the pink line or the previous low or else oil is in big trouble, but risk/reward seems decent here. As for S&P, big cluster at 1295, so buy a little here, if selling continues, next stop is a cluster at 1288

**Anyone who followed the short silver trade should think about taking some profits here as silver is at a volatility spike and has likely put in a bottom for the short-term. At least use stops to protect.

I am betting on a further drop of SLV, with a target at 32.

Same chart magnified:
http://images.investorshub.advfn.com/im ... SLVgif.GIF

Looking like SPX will hit 1230 next week.

alvian33 wrote:cobra, in your view, are the chances higher that we reverse to the upside? I know in last night report you mentioned 82% prob to go long last night, still thinking we can go higher today? thank you

no idea. now if everyone thinks that QE3 is sure thing, then it'll reverse up. I see EURUSD sharply up now.

Cobra: Thank you for all the hard work. The 10:00 AM Eastern Time ISM report should be important for the markets.

Johnboy717

SPY overshot my target from yesterday at 130.75. I covered my futures position. Really itching to initiate a long position, but I should sit on my hand.

Expecting a bounce or a grind against lower trend lines now.

EURUSD sharply up, this could mean QE3 is in the card? The question is how the market reacts to QE3? 100% positive? I have my doubt.

If it does not reverse from right where it is now (looking at futures) and continues down, it would mean that April lows will be taken and that would officially indicate an intermediate term downtrend.

Hi Cletus! Thanks for sharing your views!
In contrast to SLV, in my opinion, PALL is in a” limbo level“, resulting in a possible UP correction, if the Fan support holds.

Same chart magnified:
http://images.investorshub.advfn.com/im ... ALLgif.GIF

the open. should see some rebound first.

Cobra wrote:EURUSD sharply up, this could mean QE3 is in the card? The question is how the market reacts to QE3? 100% positive? I have my doubt.

It could be a just a reaction of relative strength of the US economy, weak economy=weak currency

After witnessing the market open, I sometimes think cobra is a snake god at predicting intra-day market movements.

Cobra wrote:

alvian33 wrote:cobra, in your view, are the chances higher that we reverse to the upside? I know in last night report you mentioned 82% prob to go long last night, still thinking we can go higher today? thank you

no idea. now if everyone thinks that QE3 is sure thing, then it'll reverse up. I see EURUSD sharply up now.

I read many times in news in few sentences, there will QE3 but not visible as QE1 or QE2 with scheduled date. From now to Sept is more like testing the market and questionable when to interevine.

Cobra wrote:EURUSD sharply up, this could mean QE3 is in the card? The question is how the market reacts to QE3? 100% positive? I have my doubt.

Big drop in AUDJPY