05/20/2016 Live Update

[Al_Dente]

Feels like they are counting rigs and inventory every 5 minutes lately….
XLE (pink) is still only 7% of SPY… nonetheless, it is still the one to watch.
10 days % performance

[Cobra]

rebounding from 15 min EMA20, bulls not over yet. wait.

[fehro]

SPX … VIX still weak.. VXX new LOD

[Cobra]

good, i think bulls are back. let's see.

[fehro]

SPX .. VIX cracks.. or headfake.. just like the neckline break yesterday.. VXX new LOD again.. need VIX to drop for SPX pop
VIX no new LOD yet

[fehro]

TLT green, trying to take 20d/50d.. a little suspicious…

[Trades with cats]

K447 If you can figure out oil could we please be invited to a party on your yacht?
Seriously this is the seasonal high almost every year so it is fundamentals versus trader games. More intense this year because the Federal Reserve has gotten involved in order to protect the banking industry and the junk bond market from massive losses. 10 million barrels of middle eastern crude unloaded this week at US ports, the most in months and months so carefully show colorful supply disruptions (fires and gunmen) didn't really slow things down and now the disruptions are going away while the Saudis and Iraqis keep on pumping. Add in all those parked tankers and the longs better hope India and the US continue to use record amounts of gas. I still haven't seen anyone reconciling record gas usage in USA to employment and retail sales, either something has changed or it's propaganda.

Goldman says the 40s is no mans land on price. Above 50 will trigger more supply (today's rig count supports that) below 30 and some can't pay to pump it out of the ground. The biggest potential fast threat is simply running out of world storage for either refined product or crude, that will be the spike down to 20 or so.

You can't just turn off wells like you can syncrude in Canada (cause they mine it). US shale doesn't have an off switch but they get so much the first year that it is an on switch. So the Saudis are correct the only long term cure for lower prices is to run all the higher cost people beyond bankruptcy to the point where they literally abandon the producing wells. The shale companies are the dying patient and Wall Street Banks are the medical doctors that are making a lot of fee income by prolonging the inevitable. You noted that Linn Energy (Goldmanite) went pre-packed screwing all the retiree (dividend greed) share holders while the banks became the new owners.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... o.headline But noware is anything said about cutting production.

[Al_Dente]

5min SPY
Lower high, lower high, lower high

[MrMiyagi]

!!! POWER HOUR !!!

[Out of Bounds]

edited

[Out of Bounds]

Snog again

[Al_Dente]

!!! POWER HOUR !!!

I AM SOOOO GLAD U R BACK

[Out of Bounds]

You have the code, chickencoop.

[fehro]

SPX slipping.. last candle 60m not pretty

[sleeman]

like last friday ?

close at our favourite # 2046spy ?

Thinking we are going down to 2042 then there will be an I H & S for Monday to complete at 2072 - 2080.

spx, i mean, this number is a magnet, ,,,$ wants to be short on weekends...lots could happen

[Trades with cats]

ES just about to support at 2044.50 while the small caps have tested the double top and it has held for now.

[Trades with cats]

Sleeman, you really think the Fed is going to incite a currency war in Beijing at 5:30 AM eastern time Monday (Bullard Speech on Fed policy) ?

[fehro]

SPX slips.. but doesn't dump… VIX still weak..

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:12 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/05 ... ay-update/

[sleeman]

Sleeman, you really think the Fed is going to incite a currency war in Beijing at 5:30 AM eastern time Monday (Bullard Speech on Fed policy) ?

bull: central bank speak
bear: lots bad vibes in world right now... debt, oil, even natural disasters, or even just markets coming to theirs senses on valuation

odds on bear