From a trading view this election will be brutal for the 401k investors. You know both sides are going to claim the other one will nuke the economy.
New post from the game theory guy this week in total disagreement with my view. http://www.salientpartners.com/epsilon- ... -and-time/He says Larry Summers and the rest of the Keynesians are in the media (he lists the four sources of market media as Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, CNBC and another network I cant remember) saying that who ever wins we will have a "free" infrastructure boom rebuilding America. It's free because it is investment in the future which is different from "shovel ready" or "ghost cities". His point is that this is what everybody is thinking everybody is thinking so that is the new source of market optimism, that sometime soon fiscal policy will levitate the economy.
Trades with cats wrote:From a trading view this election will be brutal for the 401k investors. You know both sides are going to claim the other one will nuke the economy.
New post from the game theory guy this week in total disagreement with my view. http://www.salientpartners.com/epsilon- ... -and-time/He says Larry Summers and the rest of the Keynesians are in the media (he lists the four sources of market media as Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, CNBC and another network I cant remember) saying that who ever wins we will have a "free" infrastructure boom rebuilding America. It's free because it is investment in the future which is different from "shovel ready" or "ghost cities". His point is that this is what everybody is thinking everybody is thinking so that is the new source of market optimism, that sometime soon fiscal policy will levitate the economy.
I read this guy too. Been focusing on next week with game theory. Thus with TLT surpassing Feb highs (thanks Fehro), this gets me thinking, perhaps the FED will have no choice but to raise on the 15th to retain/regain whatever last remnants of credibility it may salvage from markets.
Epsilon: What you think about the market doesn’t matter. What everyone thinks about the market (the consensus) doesn’t matter. What matters is what everyone thinks that everyone thinks about the market,
Divergence has reached extremes (incl this board) and a direction will be taken. Next week shall decide that. Bulls believe in a continuation of Fed Credibility and have faith in this policy controlled market. Bears can't tear themselves away from fundamentals. The Fed itself has only its own credibility, and the credibility of Central bank cooperation, and they must do everything to maintain it. Exogenous factors will put pressure on that credibility however the single most important factor its is own survival. If this market can not take more upside, the Fed must still show a semblance of control on the downside. Fed is cornered and its all about what we think, that we all think , that the market thinks, of this unorthodox credit given to central bank policy if its in control or not in control.