08/11/2016 Live Update

[fehro]

IYR not very confident of no rate hikes.. D/60m

[BullBear52x]

Low interest rate low dollar high energy

see energy is regaining strength with support of positive histogram, everything else is still consolidate, Qs about to cross negative.

[fehro]

SPX/INDU/NDX new/near ATH.. yet VIX higher than last weeks lows.. and still higher than 2014 lows.. 10.28.. and 2007 lows.. 8.60

[Al_Dente]

SPY double top, ascending triangle
If she can hold this breakout I’ll have to draw a target way the hell up there

[hunterman]

Fehro they say commercial hedgers have all time high in vix as of start of this week, prob what's driving higher prices

[fehro]

SPX 0.40 short of ATH on Wed.. possible double top here.. not sure. nibble short again ..not ideal.. but VIX holding -ish

[Al_Dente]

[QED]

70.8% Chance of a Mid-August Rally

Courtesy of Stock Traders Almanac:

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:00 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/08 ... ay-update/

[Trades with cats]

from a follower of Ramp Capital on twitter

[BullBear52x]

most active ETFs and new 52wk high

[BullBear52x]

here's another one.

clockworks, New HOD is next, same old playbook.

[Trades with cats]

Oil- No Sarcasm intended, even though it calls for it. This is like watching Penn and Teller when they do the trick and then show you how they did it. Hedge funds and others are at record short oil just in time for the weakest part of the year. OPEC, like the crocodiles waiting for the herd to swim the river, does their seasonal short squeezing. Today it was EIA speculating on the future. Don't bother looking at their track record because it is terrible. Then the Saudis pile on with a half dozen press releases. Bingo fundamental inventory news (admittedly semi speculative weekly numbers) losses are instantly reversed because of pure lies. You really have to watch it if you are trading it. This is going to go on until at least they all meet at an energy conference in December.

This is pure game theory. At what point do the Saudis capitulate. I think they play their advantage as lowest cost producer and force some of the competition into bankruptcy. They saw what happened when Canada went off line, all the theory proved true. US shale producers immediately upped production at $50. Libya is trying to come back on line, Irac is signing new deals to up production, Chinese imports(2nd largest buyer in world) are falling. Why would the Saudis absorb all that with production cuts just to have US shale drillers and others ship oil to their customers? They have to force things down long enough that the credit pipelines go dry then they walk away as the last one standing during a period of long term declining production. They are the Amazon of the oil patch and they are playing the very same way. (insert Game of Thrones music clip)

[Al_Dente]

[BullBear52x]

This last buy looks like it will fail, if so we see HOD.

[Cobra]

1st test of ema20 in 3 hours, should be bought around here.

[BullBear52x]

The significant if last buy failed. so I don't think PPT will allow it.

[Trades with cats]

I would guess that the proceeds of B of E bond buying that are ending up in the US equity markets would slow or stop after London closes. We do seem to see sputtering after that close regularly. Direct central bank stock purchases are another matter. Last I saw the other source of fuel, corporate buy backs, were supposed to have peaked. But with such poor earnings results and now even lower interest rates maybe that will reverse.

[fehro]

SPX 60m - bearish Harami ? - nada.. more bull flag 5m ish

[BullBear52x]

Clockworks, last buy failed, sell next.