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Al_Dente wrote:Early Warning signal?
Well, at the very least, this should be on WATCH
THIS IS A MONTHLY CHART
PRE CRASH: Recall that the market topped October 2007.
See in June/July of 2007, an ominous cross occurred when the unemployment rate moved above the 10/12 MONTHLY moving average (red circle), which in retrospect can be seen as a precursor signal to the crash, albeit a few months early.
This month is the first time since then that the same 10/12ma was breached on the MONTHLY.
(In fairness, it popped up there in 2010 – pink arrow – for a minute, and it could pop back down again this time).
What could be more important than (un)employment?
Note that the $$UNEMPRATE quote is dated as of Sept 1, the latest info we have here
What this means is that your STOPS on your medium and long term portfolios must be HONORED. Don’t dick around here.
[Post if you have better charts or better data]