11/04/2016 Live Update

[fehro]

DXY drifting lower.. near 97.00 50d 96.58.. mind a short covering rally for possible profit taking at any time…. otherwise 50d SMA

[QED]

@logic! - One more thought regarding trading /ES …

$12.50 per tick and 4 ticks per dollar = $50.00 per $1.00 move in /ES (up or down).

[fehro]

INDEX dailies.. VIX a little iffy candle.. but hours to go.. IWM on support TRANSports holds up again..

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:00 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/11 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

INDEX dailies.. VIX a little iffy candle.. but hours to go.. IWM on support TRANSports holds up again..

and why is stock charts so.. different?

[Al_Dente]

SPX, COMP, AND RUT yesterday were all 3 standard deviations below their 50MA
That’s extreme

Yes Al_Dente.
It's unlikely, but should the republican candidate win next Tuesday the market will go haywire. All known metrics will be broken. Candidate's chances to be elected are slim, but the risk to the trader/investor is very real. What we see as extreme today might be trivIal in comparison.
Seems to me it's a bit like playing Russian roulette. Chances that everything is fine are 3.5 to 1 or 6 to 1 - but the downside of a loss might be huge. ...

Thanks boss

ELSEWHERE:
The volume patterns on IWM and SPY shows three days (IWM 3 days; SPY 4 days) of reduced selling volume
That's usually a set-up for a bounce... dead cat for now...
IWM daily here:

[BullBear52x]

bulls must march on can not stop here.

[Trades with cats]

Could be true next week
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71n3PtdQWF4

[BullBear52x]

[Trades with cats]

ES at R1 pivot. If it doesn't stop here R2 and yesterday's high are a clear beacon at 2098 which would recapture 2100 for the S&P always a good way to end the week. Don't want those 401k weekend reviews to get nervous.

[Trades with cats]

2094 tougher than you would think.

[BullBear52x]

stops are in....emotions are out

I am done looking at chart today.

stop 91.75 let it be. Peace!

[fehro]

SPX next resistance.. still not quite an outside reversal

[Al_Dente]

Potential double bottom QQQ

[BullBear52x]

Chart for the road: Chart school, this is bear flag failure, very reliable short term reversal, Peace!

[fehro]

Potential double bottom QQQ

The attachment 114doub bot qqq.png.png is no longer available

and IWM channel holding it seems.. yet not quite a 200d tag..

[Trades with cats]

Fed's Lockhart says to some conference on Latin America that the fed has a high bar to NOT raise rates in December.
So odds were over 80% now the speech making is short of a disaster we will do it. Waiting to see if there is a pile on from Stan the Vice-Chair after the close. I have lost track if Lockhart is still a dove or not.

[Trades with cats]

Why do daily floor pivots still work on a regular basis? Best theory I have read is when the programmers came to the street they interviewed the floor traders. The traders all told them the first thing they do in the morning is calculate the pivots. So that is deep in the DNA of all the trading systems.

For now the ES is stuck between R1 (2094.5) and the CP (2088.75) CP is also today's vwap and the volume point of control. Hard to think there won't be an attempt to break above yesterday at 2098 before the close because I am guessing a green inside day is less than confidence inspiring that the selling is over. Long winded way of saying where is our V shaped bottom and rip your face off rally.

[Al_Dente]

1min IWM
AD is still making higher highs
NY advancing stocks = 2 x declining stocks
NY advancing volume = 2 x declining volume

Third+ push up is relaxing
Angle of ascent is a bit steep
Bull until it breaks down

Meanwhile they are trying to lure the bears in

[Al_Dente]

Why do daily floor pivots still work on a regular basis? Best theory I have read is when the programmers came to the street they interviewed the floor traders. The traders all told them the first thing they do in the morning is calculate the pivots. So that is deep in the DNA of all the trading systems.

Boss: what time-frame chart do u think they use when calculating the pivots?
5min, 15min, 60min, daily??