11/07/2016 Live Update

[BullBear52x]

brexit $VIX similarity. Fearful market price divergence.

[KENA]

Spy PB dn 208.53. Bears may not be done yet.

[brokebybernacke2]

roulette market in process of scouring bears and bulls....really hope its not a vix bull flag...

[Mr. BachNut]

Is a Monday morning BachNut like a Monday morning quarterback? Hope not...

The low of the recent NYMO down cycle is probably in, and an up cycle is probably starting.
The chart below is as of the Friday close, and I have marked 11/02 as a tentative NYMO low with a benchmark price of SPX 2094.
It will take more price action and waiting for post election trade to confirm.
However, we had a positive divergence on Friday coming out of and after two days in the turn zone.
Also, we have had two longish down cycles in a row that have taken price to the technically important 200 day MA.
This is a good place (necessary place) for the bulls to take the ball and run NYMO in positive territory for awhile.
While the election could throw cold water on this mornings ebullience, I am inclined to anticipate that any retest or break of Friday's low would come with a positive NYMO divergence and be a buy.
A retest low though probably needs to be event driven, and as usual, I have no idea what will happen. Seems unlikely but who knows.

Last week, two targets were hit, the July 7th gap and the 200 day MA.
The 200 day MA was not quite tagged on the SPX index, but I think it did on the SPY, which I will consider sufficient.
I have left one downside target at the June 28 gap in case of something extraordinary happening.
It is a little odd for price to get as weak as it did and not visit the lower keltner band.
We also never got a good capitulation flush. So, I'll keep an open mind.
However, I am inclined to focus on the blue up targets in the days ahead.

I am flat.
I went net long last Wednesday adding YM (the Dow contract) against the ES (SPX) short I have been running.
I closed the short Friday (it was a good price after many down days and with positive NYMO divergence) to be long for a bounce into the election.
Friday's close was really weak. I was traveling and away from the screen. So, I exited the long at the close for a loss to be cautious and with a view toward re-entry this week.
Mr. Market generally doesn't like to make a low on a Friday, and crashy things can happen out of oversold conditions.
Alas, the FBI skunked me. So, the campaign turned a profit, but some good money got left on the table.
Under the same circumstances again, I would have made the same decision. Welcome to the trading life.
I think I need to wait for things to unfold a bit before setting a new trade.

[fehro]

SPX mind the huge gap.. and curiously now on VIX too.. daily candle.. tight.. on both.

seems we have some data issues deciding where the open was.. gap is now smaller SPX 20d coming into range.. 2127.81

*Daily candle huge change in it's shape

[KENA]

On Fri the liquidity took another drop below the thick red line.May come up today but I think there is more dn to come.

chart by stocktiming

[fehro]

SPX mind the huge gap.. and curiously now on VIX too.. daily candle.. tight.. on both.

seems we have some data issues deciding where the open was.. gap is now smaller SPX 20d coming into range.. 2127.81

*Daily candle huge change in it's shape

INDEXes.. with new daily candles..

[KENA]

The narrow red and blue lines indicate more dn. the thick red indicates a small up which could be a bottom forming. But lets see.

chart by stocktiming

--%20opt.png (15.64 KiB) Viewed 4783 times

[uempel]

Most Bullish Percentages are up:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candl ... ,$BPENER|B|

[fehro]

DXY nHOD..

[Cobra]

looks like a strong uptrend day, bears be careful.

[fehro]

SPX almost at 20d SMA 2128.07.. 3 points. SPY 20d SMA 212.65

[Mr. BachNut]

One thing that looks cautionary here is volume.

SPY volume looks OK, but ES futures looks light given the magnitude of the move.
This looks more like a squeeze than an event driven rush to buy.

The real event lies in front. Best to keep an open mind.

[fehro]

SPX next resistance zone… pennies short of 20d.. going to tease us like the 200d SMA

[Al_Dente]

[BullBear52x]

GLD, SLV, and TLT are only thing that gone red today

[fehro]

Well we did have 9 down days… in a row.. that had not happened for 36 years. .. so maybe, just maybe... a little too many people on the bear side..

[BullBear52x]

Mid term right back to sell the rip today, anyhow, if this next sell fails, the long term buy which will trigger this week will have a good start. again my take for now is first thing first.

[fehro]

Get ready for some volatility.

With polls opening nationwide in less than 24 hours, Wall Street is trying to grapple with what different election outcomes would mean for markets across the globe. If options markets are correct, the S&P 500 could move 3.7 percent, or roughly 80 points, the day after the election.

http://www.bloomberg.com//news/articles ... e-election

[Eddie]

I gotta think, with the election tomorrow, this rally will fade to some degree at some point today.