11/30/2016 Live Update

[fehro]

SPX weak, but VIX weak to.. 2205 goes .. looking for 2193 .. my repeated call.. again..

SPX key time VIX perking up .. green

[Trades with cats]

On a Globex (24 hour) ES 15 minute chart it looks like a set up for a drop to retest the overnight lows. I am thinking the fairy dust from the OPEC deal announcement was all used up by the open. The VIX has been stomped, the FX markets are a mess and we are staring at a rate hike just as the Fed models downgrade the economy hard (Atlanta Fed Now). Must mean we are going to bounce off support and fulfill the destiny of seasonal bullish tendency to make Goldman's Trump target of 2400 before the inauguration.

The volume bars on this chart should look odd because they are relative volume comparing current to the average for the last 8 Wednesdays.

[fehro]

IBB W/D mind your bios.. <20w/50w/20d/50d .. 200d 273.95 just 0.50 lower.. that goes.. look out … 248 next major key level.

[Trades with cats]

Can't think Elizabeth Holmes isn't hurting bio tech after Wall Street Journal partial list of who got taken. Yes, Theranos wasn't publicly traded but with such a huge scandal over what was the poster child for the Bio Tech promise that would be difficult for the brokerage guy at the annual meeting with the client. Also think she gets my nomination as scam artist of the decade for taking Rupert Murdoch for 100 million. Am positive that is where Willy Sutton would be operating today.

[fehro]

NDX testing 50d SMA !! first index to do so..4825.91

[brokebybernacke2]

best guess nervousness into , 2135 level seems to be calling for a visit b4 a big year end bounce on rates, secretary of state, reset (more bears) needed to propel this market higher......

[Al_Dente]

IWM broke 5dma
QQQ broke 5dma
SPY did not

[Trades with cats]

Just to point out that this is what the Fed is facing as they raise interest rates. Atlanta Fed GDP NOW was revised down today to 2.4% which is in-line with the other estimates, all of which show a downgrade to growth. I personally expect the downgrade to continue as the presidential election cycle shows us that the quarter before the election has lots of Federal spending to goose the economy and the Trump Tax Holiday for foreign profits I don't think will clear congress until the end of Q1 .

[Al_Dente]

Beige Book

[fehro]

SPX .. buckle up.. VIX spikes

[Denali92]

Just published the updated 10 minute Buy signal study as promised.

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/11 ... ay-update/

-D

[fehro]

COMPQ breaks horiz support previous ATH, NDX < 50d SMA

[Trades with cats]

ES bouncing a little after first contact with the overnight low at 2200.75. If this thing doesn't hold 2200 going into the close I am guessing it is going to look like a kiss good-by and the start of the traditional early December pull back as the funds pay out holiday and year end redemptions.

[Cobra]

key time here. don't know which one will win.

[Al_Dente]

This BEIGE BOOK information was collected up until Nov. 18, 10 days after the U.S. elections:
o Outlooks were generally positive, although the strong dollar continued to depress exports of manufactured goods in some Districts
o For steel, demand fell in the Cleveland District and production weakened in the San Francisco District, where contacts noted that the elevated dollar, strong global production, and weak economic growth held back exports.
o The strength of the dollar reduced spending by international customers in the Boston, Atlanta, and Dallas Districts. Reports on automobile sales were mixed.
o One contact had poor results in stores near the Canadian border because of the strong U.S. dollar but experienced mid-to-upper single digit sales increases in locations where the exchange rate was not a factor.
o Factors tempering output growth for other manufacturing industries include lower business fixed investment, the strong dollar, and weakness in the energy sector.
o A transportation source reported that truck and railroad services experienced sluggishness due to excess capacity and the strong dollar.
o District retailers reported relatively flat sales growth compared with the same time period last year. Some contacts noted that international customers were spending less due to the strength of the dollar.
o Contacts continued to point to lower exports as a headwind, citing challenges with international demand due to the strong dollar.
o Gulf Coast chemical producers saw mixed demand, in line with the headwinds of a strong dollar and moderating international demand.
o Contacts noted slowing sales growth in border cities due to the sustained impact from the strong value of the dollar, and one contact noted continued sales declines at stores in the oil patch.
o E-commerce sales continued to boost domestic shipping volumes, while demand from the export sector remained weak due to the elevated dollar.
o Steel production weakened over the reporting period as the elevated dollar, strong global production, and weak global economic growth held back exports

[Al_Dente]

IWM broke 5dma
QQQ broke 5dma
SPY did not

UPDATE
SPY is testing its 5dma

[fehro]

SPX weak, but VIX weak to.. 2205 goes .. looking for 2193 .. my repeated call.. again..

SPX key time VIX perking up .. green

come to papa.. red goes.. then 2193

[Cobra]

mini rebound target. exceeds it then the low was in for today.

[Al_Dente]

HAPPY HOUR

[fehro]

SPX nibbled short

SPX cover a little here .. still looking for 2193ish