06/30/2011 Intraday Watering

[rhight]

Rhight: good point! Doing the same.
Also...nice analytical charts, in general!
R U a professional?

Retired electrical engineer.

[dr659]

if you guys still remember muddy waters aka the chinese fraud hunter, here is an interview with carson block

http://youtu.be/sZLlRmY0vY4

Saw Muddy Waters, Toledo Sports Arena about 1978ish he opened up for Clapton

[davros]

feels like it will breakdown from here.

you said bull flag before, should have stuck with the first feeling!

[rhight]

i trade mostly 2 to 3 contracts, sometimes i'll trade up to 5 but no more than 5 at a time.
this shows how not to trade, notice i've added to a losing position 2 times.
what i'm not showing are all the other indicators that give me confindence to break the rules by adding to a losing position.

What do others think of adding to losing positions?

Do you do it?

Do you believe you should never do it?

Most pro's advice not to do it. It has never worked for me, and I've learned the hard way. One old saying goes something like, "the first loss is always the smallest." That's true. Learn trade management and don't get caught with your pants down.

[Mr. T]

DOW just hit a new high.......

People trying to front-run the open?

[endangered510]

SPY's reaction to this last push is strange. It was following the EUR/USD tick by tick all day and suddenly rocked upwards. Window dressing?

[Nomorework]

SPY's reaction to this last push is strange. It was following the EUR/USD tick by tick all day and suddenly rocked upwards. Window dressing?

This is ridiculous... Have to have some profit taking tomorrow.

[Mr. T]

TNA/TZA not following this at all...... and RUT leads.

[soku]

apol to report ah. i bot my lotto ticket

[endangered510]

If you follow cash flow on wsj.com, the last two intraday pushes at the close is where the majority of block selling takes place.

[Cobra]

feels like it will breakdown from here.

you said bull flag before, should have stuck with the first feeling!

doesn't matter, no breakdown, so no trading signal, i simply move my trailing stop loss.

[Cobra]

Hi Cobra,

You mentioned today will be down day. Instead its a strong up day.
I think too many became too bearish.

well, there's always some exceptions. I cannot do anything about it.

[cougar]

Rhight: good point! Doing the same.
Also...nice analytical charts, in general!
R U a professional?

Retired electrical engineer. Signal analysis, amplifiers, noise filters, phase locked loops, oscillators. Lots of computer simulation and spreadsheet development. Trying to apply my skill set to this trade. I've developed what I consider to be a good system for position trades, using uncorrelated data (price, volume, sentiment, strength). My weakness has been in trade management, and so I've been working hard to improve in that area. Have developed several spreadsheets that guide me. Been at it for two years now, and some day I'm going to make a profit! At least I've still got a sense of humor. Really, if I only traded my system I'd be way ahead, but sometimes you have to be beat on the head to take your lessons to heart and learn some discipline. No more impulsive moves or neglecting to put in stops. Only by the book now. Have benefited by studying Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist, Robert C. Miner, Connie Brown, Carolyn Boroden. Don't watch CNBC, and have to filter out all the cynicism over at Zero Hedge, but they publish some great reports (that should cost $$, shhh...) I like Reggie Middleton, and some other contributors that know what their talking about. I don't trade angry, or disparage the "manipulators", just look for their footprints and follow along. We are competing against expert systems developed by PhD's and Masters degree computer programmers at GS, etc., which is why the market trades so technically. Their job is to take my money, can't blame them for that, but no more Mr. Nice Guy. Cobra (Peter) does some very good and interesting statistical analysis, but I've never based a trade on it, nor would I recommend that anyone try to ride someones coattails. Rather, dig in and do the analysis and understand the reasons for taking a position. OK, no more preaching, I hope you didn't fall asleep. How about yourself?

Thank you Rhight! Many great market analysts had an engineering background.
I read your posts with interests!
I also agree with your words about trading “in the company” of the GS armies.
My background is theoretical molecular genetics…pretty far away from my present attempts..

[99er]

SPX
I guess The Hamptons beckon...
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/06/spx_9570.html

[soku]

My background is theoretical molecular genetics…pretty far away from my present attempts..

what a surprise
from yr chart i thot u r financial engineer. i still remember the old days, we inv fisher everything

[Cobra]

well, guess, that's it for today. not much to say today. a little bigger picture, the very first visible pullback on the SPY 60 min or daily chart is buy, very rare this kind of push up fails right away.

[zebra]

SPY's reaction to this last push is strange. It was following the EUR/USD tick by tick all day and suddenly rocked upwards. Window dressing?

This is ridiculous... Have to have some profit taking tomorrow.

From Bloomberg:

Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner has signaled to White House officials that he’s considering leaving the administration after President Barack Obama reaches an agreement with Congress to raise the national debt limit, according to three people familiar with the matter.

Geithner hasn’t made a final decision and won’t do so until the debt ceiling issue has been resolved, according to one of the people. All spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private discussions.

The Treasury secretary has said the U.S. risks defaulting on its obligations if Congress doesn’t raise the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling by Aug. 2. The administration and congressional Republicans are at an impasse in negotiations to raise the limit, which also is tied to efforts to cut the nation’s long- term deficit.

An exit by Geithner would complete the turnover in Obama’s original economic team, with Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Austan Goolsbee scheduled to leave in early August to return to the University of Chicago.

That would leave Obama with two key posts to fill as Republicans are seeking to turn the 2012 election into a referendum on Obama’s handling of the economy and the recovery is slowing. The unemployment rate rose to 9.1 percent in May, according to the Labor Department, and the U.S. economy grew at a 1.9 percent pace in the first quarter, according to Commerce Department figures released June 24.

Geithner, 49, has told associates that he needs a break from government service after dealing with the turmoil that followed the collapse of Wall Street firms including Bear Stearns Cos. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., first as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and then as Obama’s treasury secretary.

Family considerations also are playing a role in Geithner’s deliberations, according to the people. His son has decided to finish his final year of high school in New York.

If Geithner does leave the administration, Obama would be losing a member of his economic team who understands Washington institutions and the New York banking world as well the intricacies of the Chinese economy. Geithner has pressed the Chinese to let their currency appreciate faster to reduce the global imbalances that both he and Obama have blamed for financial uncertainty.

In addition to Goolsbee, who announced his decision to return to the University of Chicago earlier this month, three other top Obama economic advisers already have departed. At the CEA, Goolsbee replaced Romer, who returned to teaching at the University of California at Berkeley last September. National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers and Office of Management and Budget Director Peter Orszag left the administration last year. Summers returned to Harvard University, and Orszag is now vice chairman of global banking at Citigroup Inc

[silicon_beaver]

Last day of the month, last day of QE2.
closed my positions of gpl, avl, ldk, exk at gain. some banking stocks at loss. still hold home-building, oil stocks. they all under water.

[99er]

ES
Watch these guys bail.
[Deleted by accident, sorry.]

Update: http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/06/es_198.html

Update: http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/06/es_4285.html

Have a good one.

Friday Morning Update: http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/07/es.html

Double Top? Any #@**ing Top?

[tegra]

Rhight: good point! Doing the same.
Also...nice analytical charts, in general!
R U a professional?

Retired electrical engineer. Signal analysis, amplifiers, noise filters, phase locked loops, oscillators. Lots of computer simulation and spreadsheet development. Trying to apply my skill set to this trade. I've developed what I consider to be a good system for position trades, using uncorrelated data (price, volume, sentiment, strength). My weakness has been in trade management, and so I've been working hard to improve in that area. Have developed several spreadsheets that guide me. Been at it for two years now, and some day I'm going to make a profit! At least I've still got a sense of humor. Really, if I only traded my system I'd be way ahead, but sometimes you have to be beat on the head to take your lessons to heart and learn some discipline. No more impulsive moves or neglecting to put in stops. Only by the book now. Have benefited by studying Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist, Robert C. Miner, Connie Brown, Carolyn Boroden. Don't watch CNBC, and have to filter out all the cynicism over at Zero Hedge, but they publish some great reports (that should cost $$, shhh...) I like Reggie Middleton, and some other contributors that know what their talking about. I don't trade angry, or disparage the "manipulators", just look for their footprints and follow along. We are competing against expert systems developed by PhD's and Masters degree computer programmers at GS, etc., which is why the market trades so technically. Their job is to take my money, can't blame them for that, but no more Mr. Nice Guy. Cobra (Peter) does some very good and interesting statistical analysis, but I've never based a trade on it, nor would I recommend that anyone try to ride someones coattails. Rather, dig in and do the analysis and understand the reasons for taking a position. OK, no more preaching, I hope you didn't fall asleep. How about yourself?

gosh, u guys got wonderful background.