Black Gold- Vienna non-opec member agreement as expected today. Clipper Data showed us these countries have declining production.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-1 ... ons-remain
The big issue is how this will go as we move into seasonal weakness. Clearly The media is setting up the longs to be slammed and with cuts not hitting until January we should have some epic inventory builds. Last year they squeezed the shorts mid winter when the Niger River Avengers took Nigeria off line and created a short term cut. Saudi and their partners could certainly set things up for a repeat this year. After all no one really knows how much they will cut so mid-winter production numbers will be watched very closely.
One part of the puzzle that will give everyone an idea of timing is when that IPO hits. I would guess in July as that is usually peak oil price for the year. When ever it happens I would expect they will want the shorts to pile in well in advance so they can sling shot off the squeeze into seasonal strength. After the IPO I would guess it all falls apart just like these OPEC deals have in the past.
Will the shale drillers use this opportunity to pump profits and pay down debt? I doubt it as their natural instinct is drill baby drill and they are. I do think this gives us yet another year or two of boom bust and delays the long term bottom, Once the bottom is in investing in relatively low debt unglamorous firms with long lived assets will help you sleep at night.