12/14/2016 Live Update

[daytradingES]

Inventory report and industrial production were not good Atlanta Fed GDP now dropped .2 to 2.4 for 4th qtr. More ugly in my opinion was DOE saying gas and distillate usage down 2.5% from the year ago period. We are the biggest market. India, a growing market is in total turmoil because of political leadership. Between the two countries looking like world demand for gas is going to be soft, not what OPEC wants to see.

Thanks TWC

It doesn't seem that the inventory numbers ever pull the price down, but a drawdown is highlighted by MSM and used to help the Saudi rumor mill.

With two years of build of 1.5m BBD there is a lot of inventory to work through.

With the USD very high (and perhaps to go higher with a rate increase?) the price of oil in other currencies is quite high and
with:
domestic economies limping along and
savings rates so very low and
cash under threat
electricity, rent, food, public transit costs, postal rates, taxes etc keep going up at 10% or so
people aren't spending beyond necessities.

Gasoline prices at the pump (in Canada) are still very high $1.15 litre for premium about $5.40 per gallon
$1.15/.76*3.7854 =$5.73. So who is going to do extra driving?

Everyone is looking to save money where ever they can.

notes--------
1 Canadian Dollar equals
0.76 US Dollar
-----
1 Gallons (US) into Liters:
3.785411784
conversion rate 1 : 3.785411784

Prices:
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableau ... 2g-eng.htm

[fehro]

while we wait . for FOMC, which possibly maybe a non-event…

Started a Topic for .. Acronyms.. viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2292
posted the pic below + an excel file .. of ones I tend to use… feel free to add more.

[BullBear52x]

update from my corner.

[fehro]

Bios look sick (pun intended) IBB weekly/Daily.. last few days.. a collection of inv hammers/gravestones all under 20d/50d/200d/20w/50w/200w SMA's .. crazy.

[BullBear52x]

support.

[BullBear52x]

/CL = Buy above 52, (bail under it)

[BullBear52x]

This is why I like his junction to trade. USO pivot.

[Trades with cats]

Saudi & OPEC say 55 to 60 is what they want. OPEC now saying at their demand projections surplus inventory won't clear until end of 2017. No one seems to ever have decent long term projections. API DOE inventory kerfuffle caused sell off after hours then a recovery today. Expect more of the same. Those tankers hold one to 2 million barrels so a day or two on the unloading schedule could easily send inventories way off. A bad winter could cause frequent closing of the Houston ship canal and there you go. Last summer they ran out of gas storage in New York and started diverting ships out of Rotterdam to the caribbean mid-atlantic. Would expect more screwball stuff as storage gets close to capacity.

Bottom line is there is too much oil and the combination of depletion with lower capital budgets hasn't had enough time to cure it. All eyes will be on inventories from January on. We saw Glencore manipulate the Brent market last spring. There is no way these big traders that can control several tanker loads at a time will not take advantage of this. Layer in geopolitical risk like what if Venezuela collapses like libya did or if the deal falls and the Avengers shut down Nigeria again. Nothing but clouds in the crystal balls looking at this market .

[Cobra]

rebound may have legs. if not because of FOMC then the low was in for today.

[Al_Dente]

new ATH yesterday on HYG junk bonds, also JNK.
another “risk on” confirmation

[fehro]

VIX moving up strongly with SPX both nHOD

[Trades with cats]

From Matt Smith's blog at Clipperdata.com Highlights why big cuts to production in January are critical to OPEC NOPEC success.

[BullBear52x]

HS formation.

[Al_Dente]

Since it’s in the bag 100% for a rate hike today, the major houses have to obsess on the language/tone and forcasts and the press conference and “dots”
[But Art Cashin thinks that a single trump tweet will weigh more than all of the notes below]

BNP: Fed to hike fed funds rate by 25bps; expect little guidance beyond what’s already in Fed’s projections. Statement could include upgraded assessments in first paragraph, description of risks as appearing “balanced.” No changes seen to Fed’s median dots; too early for big changes to summary of economic projections; most on FOMC will probably wait for more clarity
“Elephant” at Yellen’s press conference is question of how Fed will respond to changes in fiscal outlook; impact remains “highly uncertain”

BofAML: Market’s expectation for Fed hikes in coming years has room to rise
Inflation “party” has started, with core PCE expected to rise to 1.9% by end of 2017, “approaching if not overshooting the Fed’s 2% inflation target”
… expects Fed to hike once in 2017, three times in 2018; any signs of concern from Fed regarding USD strength would limit short-term USD gains

Citi : Fed may make few, if any, adjustments to its growth and inflation forecasts.
Renewed USD strength and back-up in yields may ultimately exert drag on U.S. growth and inflation

Credit Suisse: Market isn’t pricing in enough risk of Fed hikes in 2017-2018; Trump administration is likely to have passed some fiscal initiatives by 2H 2017-1H 2018.… “we will probably get a small move up in dots;” Fed’s meeting could be a “catalyst” for markets to start repricing number of hikes expected in 2017-2018, if statement or Yellen’s press conference is more hawkish than expected

Deutsche: Policy makers will have little reason to lower their long-run rate forecasts further, especially since upside risks to growth have increased considerably; they will likely view their longer-run fed funds projections as “just right”
Fed will likely be “encouraged” by convergence of markets’ outlook toward its forecasts

Goldman: Fed is likely to break trend of downward revision to policy rate path, marking “a turning point for the dollar.” USD may rise after FOMC meeting

JPM: Statement will take no view on prospects for fiscal policy; Yellen to stress that it’s premature to change economic or Fed policy outlook
Median dot for 2017 will continue to suggest two hikes; JPM sees no compelling reason for major changes to 2018 or 2019 dots; FOMC may take “breather” on adjusting long-term dot

Morgan Stanley: Trump’s economic agenda suggests Fed’s forecasts for growth and policy “look achievable,” which should lead to hikes next year in September and December; three more seen in 2018
Market possibly pricing in a “decent probability” that median dots shift higher at FOMC meeting, though current market expectations are along FOMC’s projections

UBS: Current distribution of dots is at risk of faster pace of tightening “across the entire forecasting horizon”
Only two policy makers would need to move their 2017-2019 outlooks higher to produce a higher median
Long-run forecast could move if just one forecast shifts between a 2.75%-3% rate

[TraderJoe]

The VIX is ready to rock

[Trades with cats]

Time for the pre-flight check.

[johnnywa]

Have parachute

[Al_Dente]

rare bear, Rob Hanna, posted today

[brokebybernacke2]

pure boredom speculation....

today/tomorrow:

sp rise above the daily bolly (2275) with a vix slam to lower bolly (11.5) for a new high first, then pull back into opex/early next week , target 2235 13ma , b4 eoy santa aka Trump big rally...

[Cobra]

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