Back to www.cobrasmarketview.com

02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58344
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by Cobra »

QQQQ is strong. So I'm still not willing to bet my life on bear side...

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
vsedge
Posts: 9
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 11:29 am

Re: 02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by vsedge »

This is because of AAPL? And AAPL is very unlikely to drop this week, because its VIX (^VXAPL by yahoo.com) was positive last week. I did some some analysis based on the available AAPL volatility data (^VXAPL), AAPL would usually be positive if it had a positive ^VXAPL in the previous week, when the market in the up trend.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58344
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by Cobra »

so far the rebound is ok, now a little headwind. Today's a typical range day, if you realized this earlier, then your DT would benefit a lot from it.
Attachments
SPY5min.png

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58344
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by Cobra »

vsedge wrote:This is because of AAPL? And AAPL is very unlikely to drop this week, because its VIX (^VXAPL by yahoo.com) was positive last week. I did some some analysis based on the available AAPL volatility data (^VXAPL), AAPL would usually be positive if it had a positive ^VXAPL in the previous week, when the market in the up trend.
Hmm, interesting. thanks.

I finally see some discussion here. Come on guys, you're too shy. :lol:

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
EvilTrader
Posts: 675
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 2:40 pm

Re: 02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by EvilTrader »

we have SPY macd divergence on hourly, and a finally a SELL signal.

im playing it out.
vsedge
Posts: 9
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 11:29 am

Re: 02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by vsedge »

Thanks a lot, Cobra.

GS is trong this week, and its vlolatility data (^VXGS) was positive in the last week too.

But GS is clearly in a bearish rising wedge on a daily chart. So I am confused.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58344
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by Cobra »

vsedge wrote:Thanks a lot, Cobra.

GS is trong this week, and its vlolatility data (^VXGS) was positive in the last week too.

But GS is clearly in a bearish rising wedge on a daily chart. So I am confused.
As far as I know, the hedge fund is buying and at the same time well hedged, so it's very unlikely to sell off hard now although the week could close in red as statistics strongly suggested.

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
vsedge
Posts: 9
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 11:29 am

Re: 02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by vsedge »

Cobra wrote:
vsedge wrote:Thanks a lot, Cobra.

GS is trong this week, and its vlolatility data (^VXGS) was positive in the last week too.

But GS is clearly in a bearish rising wedge on a daily chart. So I am confused.
As far as I know, the hedge fund is buying and at the same time well hedged, so it's very unlikely to sell off hard now although the week could close in red as statistics strongly suggested.
I am trying to develop a strategy to buy or sell weekly options, based on the volalility index of individual stock (like AAPL and GS) and index (like SPY). I noticed that there are very good correlation between the weekly movement of the volitivity in the previous week and the weekly price movement of stock or index.

For instances, both AAPL and GS's volativity indexes were positive last week, assuming we are instill in the up trend, then their price would be closing in green this week. This would give us an edge to play vertical spread option strategy on a weekly basis.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58344
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by Cobra »

If my logic about no buyers today at the last hour holds true, then just don't expect this to rebound. But overall, a little bit bigger picture, I see price overlap today, so unlikely today's the real bear attack, and I still think chances are good we'll see a gap up tomorrow.
Attachments
SPY5min.png

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58344
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by Cobra »

vsedge wrote:
Cobra wrote:
vsedge wrote:Thanks a lot, Cobra.

GS is trong this week, and its vlolatility data (^VXGS) was positive in the last week too.

But GS is clearly in a bearish rising wedge on a daily chart. So I am confused.
As far as I know, the hedge fund is buying and at the same time well hedged, so it's very unlikely to sell off hard now although the week could close in red as statistics strongly suggested.
I am trying to develop a strategy to buy or sell weekly options, based on the volalility index of individual stock (like AAPL and GS) and index (like SPY). I noticed that there are very good correlation between the weekly movement of the volitivity in the previous week and the weekly price movement of stock or index.

For instances, both AAPL and GS's volativity indexes were positive last week, assuming we are instill in the up trend, then their price would be closing in green this week. This would give us an edge to play vertical spread option strategy on a weekly basis.
Wow, thanks for the tip!

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
q2model
Posts: 336
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 10:54 am

Re: 02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by q2model »

vsedge wrote:
Cobra wrote:
vsedge wrote:Thanks a lot, Cobra.

GS is trong this week, and its vlolatility data (^VXGS) was positive in the last week too.

But GS is clearly in a bearish rising wedge on a daily chart. So I am confused.
As far as I know, the hedge fund is buying and at the same time well hedged, so it's very unlikely to sell off hard now although the week could close in red as statistics strongly suggested.
I am trying to develop a strategy to buy or sell weekly options, based on the volalility index of individual stock (like AAPL and GS) and index (like SPY). I noticed that there are very good correlation between the weekly movement of the volitivity in the previous week and the weekly price movement of stock or index.

For instances, both AAPL and GS's volativity indexes were positive last week, assuming we are instill in the up trend, then their price would be closing in green this week. This would give us an edge to play vertical spread option strategy on a weekly basis.
Have you tested for index ETFs?
vsedge
Posts: 9
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 11:29 am

Re: 02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by vsedge »

I tested on SPY and VIX. I just noticed this a couple of weeks ago.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58344
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by Cobra »

Volume surge, so could see pullback here. Anyway, that should concludes the day. Thank you guys, see you tomorrow! Feel free to post new thread on this board. And as for this watering thread, I think it's a good start, and we'll get better as we get to know each other day by day. Thanks again!
Attachments
SPY5min.png

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
PLMT
Posts: 14
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 11:38 am

Re: 02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by PLMT »

see you !
User avatar
pezhead9000
Posts: 380
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 9:34 am
Contact:

Re: 02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by pezhead9000 »

awesome - very helpful - thanks
q2model
Posts: 336
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 10:54 am

Re: 02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by q2model »

vsedge wrote:I tested on SPY and VIX. I just noticed this a couple of weeks ago.
Thank you for your information
ahdou
Posts: 6
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 2:11 pm

Re: 02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by ahdou »

great analysis! Cobra, thank you so much for your info! I will review your public charts in detail tonite. See you tomorrow. have a great day!
User avatar
foxytrader
Posts: 18
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 2:23 pm

Re: 02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by foxytrader »

thanks,see ya.
zebra
Posts: 38
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 5:17 pm

Re: 02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by zebra »

nice place. thanks Cobra.
User avatar
EvilTrader
Posts: 675
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 2:40 pm

Re: 02/15/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by EvilTrader »

THANKS COBRA!
Post Reply