12/29/2016 Live Update

[fehro]

SPX fills gap.. and slips under 20d SMA mind the possible green bull flag 60m bottom left.. for the bullish view… if 20d SMA holds and we bounce.

[Trades with cats]

The late Louis Rukeyser (I am so old I remember him saying it on TV) said those who predict the markets develop a taste for ground glass. I think the lunch special at RBC today is crystal ball on a bun!

So no massive selling waves so far, instead like a slow leak in a balloon. I imagine tomorrow will be even deader.

[daytradingES]

thanks for the RBC /ZH post TWC!
------------from it -----
" Lower US rates (= stronger USTs) boosted by the mechanical pension asset-rebalancing into bonds from stocks (on acct of massive relative performance gap MTD / QTD), most-clearly evidenced by the programmatic ~ half-hour long selling-waves seen in SPX at 9:35am, 11:55am and 3:35pm. Expect this flow to continue through the new year, as market liquidity simply is not deep enough to ‘take it.’
source:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-2 ... ell-orders

------my questions / thoughts ----
If asset class funds are re-balancing (sell equities and buying bonds) what impact does this have on the risk parity funds? Will they now increase the % of bonds and off-set or partially offset any % decrease of bonds they may have done in the recent bond decline?

[DellGriffith]

I feel like someone is watching this forum and trading against me lol. I went away for weeks and traded successfully. As soon as I start posting my trades here they all lose!

[fehro]

SPX500 CFD = /ES in shape.... bulls see a possible green bull flag.. 60m right chart.. bears watching the 20d SMA want a close below.. then maybe 50d SMA, multi year break out restest.. fwiw

[Trades with cats]

I feel like someone is watching this forum and trading against me lol. I went away for weeks and traded successfully. As soon as I start posting my trades here they all lose!

After a day like yesterday wouldn't any Bollinger Band system be in a world of hurt?

[ALdaytrade]

Top of Bollinger Band for $VIX is 14.07

100 sma for $VIX is 13.84

[Trades with cats]

If asset class funds are re-balancing (sell equities and buying bonds) what impact does this have on the risk parity funds? Will they now increase the % of bonds and off-set or partially offset any % decrease of bonds they may have done in the recent bond decline?

They are paid hundreds of millions a year to figure things out in advance so they have info we don't. We are reading that there is a record short position in bonds, could it be insurance? Also we had the Fed change rates but really that was just news. Rates were all ready being moved by the massive dumping by China and others dealing with capital flows and the sovereign wealth funds raising cash. Significant bond buying in January would stabilize things but they have to raise the cash and yesterday didn't feel like 35 billion in selling, . So if we get several days of wave after wave of selling then I guess the tell would be the bonds going the other way or the same way. edit: Thank-you Captain Obvious!

Also the Fed has panicked and stopped the market at 10% sell-off several times. Interesting to see if they do that again if given the chance.

[Trades with cats]

7 year auction great success. Zerohedge "And now that we have both the blockbuster 5Y auction in hand, and the similarly as impressive 7Y in the rear view mirror, all those who have warned that buyers are abandoning the Treasury asset class in their great rotation toward equities, make want to re-evealute their thesis: if anything, coupled with the Fed's custody data, the recent auctions confirm that heading into 2017, the one "Great Rotation" to focus on is the inverse one."

[QED]

I went away for weeks and traded successfully.

I thought you were on vacation with Neal Page.

[Cobra]

possible higher low or double bottom, the low might be in.

[fehro]

AMZN Daily H&S triangle bearish rising wedge of sorts at RS fwiw

[Trades with cats]

Looks a lot like last Friday, can't wait for tomorrow NOT!

[fehro]

sloppy invs H&S SPX 5m.. 2251 neckline goes late.. target 2258 tiny on the 5m.. not on this chart..

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:53 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/12 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. Friday tomorrow has been bear friendly but up 4 of the last 5 recently. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp