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12/31/2016 Holiday Update

PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2016 5:56 pm
by Cobra
Happy new year everyone!

Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:00 pm
by Cobra
Smart money shorted a little but the short is not extreme yet therefore should still be some up rooms.


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:11 pm
by Cobra
summary of the week's stock picks:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2306&p=235014#p235014
The next week can use almost the same list...

Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:12 pm
by Cobra
don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2312

Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2016 7:43 pm
by Al_Dente
For the first time this year, technology companies at times held each of the top five spots of the world's most valuable public companies. The combined market value of Tech's Fab Five (in order of market cap): AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, FB, was $2.4 trillion as of Dec. 27, or more than 11 percent of the S&P 500's value. That means tech superpowers are inching toward the 16 percent share of the S&P 500 they held at the peak of the tech bubble in March 2000.
[source: top chart is mine, everything else is from Bloomberg]
1230agmaf.png.png

1230aapl rev.png.png

Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 12:00 am
by Al_Dente
For almost two years, the market has ignored the classic fundamentals (GAAP EPS), and levitated higher on QE and FED fumes.
Now it looks like we are starting an “organic” earnings increase, which encouraged the FED to raise rates.
I suppose the idea is that earnings should continue their increase, allowing the market to rely once again on fundamentals, as the FED ends their dominance of monetary policy, and allows fiscal policy to carry the burden for a change.
We’ll see how that works out, oy.
This Rosenberg article is two weeks old but should be read in that context.
"If we get an earnings profile more befitting of a late-cycle backdrop, it is tough to get an estimate for the S&P above 1,950."
“Fade the rally”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-1 ... -deflation

12_30eps.png.png

Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 4:40 pm
by fehro
A cornucopia of candles for the year end. :roll: :lol: Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly and daily.
Dailies, Weeklies Indexes look weak, with Monthly toppy. TLT & GLD Yearly / Quarterly looks ugly.

Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 4:41 pm
by fehro
Industry indexes % Weeklies

Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 4:42 pm
by fehro

Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 4:43 pm
by fehro
T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily

Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 4:44 pm
by fehro
Yields

Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 5:02 pm
by fehro
Yields v2.0

Top row Monthly,
Bottom row W/D mix.

Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 5:38 pm
by fehro
SPX long long term fwiw.

Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

PostPosted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 10:00 pm
by daytradingES
HI!

I'd like to poll all the bright lights out their (that is all of you since you visit Cobra's!) and get your
HELP
with something.

Background:
I collect data for each trading day including H/L/O/C
In one of my spreadsheets this data is summed for the week : so open for the week (Monday's open), the high of the week (HOW), the low of the week (LOW) and the close of the week (Friday's close).

Now it occurred to me that I could also compute the minimum high of five days (LHW), and the maximum low of the five days (HLW).

Now I think that the spread between the LHW and HLW compared to the the spread between the HOW and LOW, when taken in conjunction with the O to C will be predictive of next week.

But I'm not sure how
Any ideas?

Attached is a chart prior to last week
(the chart has o/n lines at the beginning of each day just ignore those orange boxed points Mon and Tues shown - ditto Wed. Thurs, Fri)

Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

PostPosted: Mon Jan 02, 2017 6:16 pm
by BullBear52x
daytradingES wrote:HI!

I'd like to poll all the bright lights out their (that is all of you since you visit Cobra's!) and get your
HELP
with something.

Background:
I collect data for each trading day including H/L/O/C
In one of my spreadsheets this data is summed for the week : so open for the week (Monday's open), the high of the week (HOW), the low of the week (LOW) and the close of the week (Friday's close).

Now it occurred to me that I could also compute the minimum high of five days (LHW), and the maximum low of the five days (HLW).

Now I think that the spread between the LHW and HLW compared to the the spread between the HOW and LOW, when taken in conjunction with the O to C will be predictive of next week.

But I'm not sure how
Any ideas?

Attached is a chart prior to last week
(the chart has o/n lines at the beginning of each day just ignore those orange boxed points Mon and Tues shown - ditto Wed. Thurs, Fri)

How do you use the average of numbers as a predictive? some sort of special derivative or standard? just curious.

Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

PostPosted: Mon Jan 02, 2017 6:32 pm
by BullBear52x
It is what it is department:
2240 is key pivot tomorrow.

Re: 12/31/2016 Holiday Update

PostPosted: Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:43 pm
by daytradingES
BullBear52x wrote:
daytradingES wrote:HI!

I'd like to poll all the bright lights out their (that is all of you since you visit Cobra's!) and get your
HELP
with something.

Background:
I collect data for each trading day including H/L/O/C
In one of my spreadsheets this data is summed for the week : so open for the week (Monday's open), the high of the week (HOW), the low of the week (LOW) and the close of the week (Friday's close).

Now it occurred to me that I could also compute the minimum high of five days (LHW), and the maximum low of the five days (HLW).

Now I think that the spread between the LHW and HLW compared to the the spread between the HOW and LOW, when taken in conjunction with the O to C will be predictive of next week.

But I'm not sure how
Any ideas?

Attached is a chart prior to last week
(the chart has o/n lines at the beginning of each day just ignore those orange boxed points Mon and Tues shown - ditto Wed. Thurs, Fri)

How do you use the average of numbers as a predictive? some sort of special derivative or standard? just curious.


I'm not sure on your question. I don't use average numbers as predictive .

The chart show for week 395 I have added two lines, the red is the highest of the 5 LODs of the week (which was Tuesday 2262.50 LOD), the green line is the lowest HOD of the week (which was Friday's HOD ).