Cobra's Market View

I have ES VWAP at 2260 and falling. Don't know if we will get there in a straight line (doubt that) but the odds favor getting there.

SPX trying to hold it.. VIX 15m .. possible invs H&S

The good and the bad. At the top. At resistance.

Trades with cats wrote:I have ES VWAP at 2260 and falling. Don't know if we will get there in a straight line (doubt that) but the odds favor getting there.

We are here, what do we do now? I am hesitant to place short ..

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Now the market will tell us what the big boys are up to. Must wait to see if this is resistance or support. On paper institutions are offered VWAP as their average buy or sell on their broken up large blocks. Looks like it will take some time to find a direction.

Time wise we sold off from London close to noon. Often lunch hour is a positive move. Some say to get lunch hour traders to buy. But I have not seen statistics on that.

Trades with cats wrote:Now the market will tell us what the big boys are up to. Must wait to see if this is resistance or support. On paper institutions are offered VWAP as their average buy or sell on their broken up large blocks. Looks like it will take some time to find a direction.

Time wise we sold off from London close to noon. Often lunch hour is a positive move. Some say to get lunch hour traders to buy. But I have not seen statistics on that.

Well, my impatient mind took over and my short is a bit under water.

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VWAP with standard deviation bands on 3 minute ES Chart. Fat Tails (Henry) at Lizard Trading says that his VWAP is not as accurate for the the first hour or two of trading. He also suggests using it in extended hours for things that have high volume all the time like currency, but on local market hours for things that have high volume from a specif exchange, like DAX or S&P.

Shaishen wrote:
Well, my impatient mind took over and my short is a bit under water.

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No confidence in the short game, bailed for plus 3 ticks

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VWAP and Cobra's 20 period EMA are frequently very close together in price. The thing about Volume Weighted Moving Average is that the large brokerages all have trading algos programmed to get their big customer s VWAP by breaking up their large block orders and selling or buying during the day in small chunks. So it, along with daily pivots, support resistance levels, tick, VIX and volume footprints seem to be the tools of the price action crowd.

Clear we have stalled at VWAP so must be a chunck of transactions to get through before market gets unbalanced and starts moving.

maybe another push up, then pullback? if push up strong then another push up possible.

SPX choppy..

From my corner. intraday last buy is still good. new mid term sell signal triggered.

DX flat seems to have found support. Goldman (repeated by Zerohedge) says Mexican central bank has no choice but to intervene. Others saying PBoC may have caused the shorts to be carried out feet first last night but that was just a battle and the war is going badly (Yuan still going down against dollar longer term). Haven't seen any opinion on what Kuroda San is up to. Clear Super Mario has his hands full. Glad I don't trade currency as all the central bank interventions must make it difficult.

rebound still strong, guess bears are over for today.

SPX resistance near here

ES VWAP still at 2260, or about 2265 on the index. Hour and a half since we got here, not exactly a high speed market.

Buy stop level.

bears behave better than I thought but another push up maybe possible.

Smalls, the TF got to within a point of calculated VWAP 45 minutes ago and have been slowly dropping since.