Cobra's Market View

Second Negative D., I am selling again here. tight stop though.

With you on this one - wrong above 2277

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fehro wrote:17 points.. got your hat ready?

INDU HOD 19999.63

Mr. BachNut wrote: In one of my posts last year, I noted that busting above the upper keltner band was normally followed by a series of price higher highs higher lows that kept the band rising.
We have not seen that, and in fact the 12/13 ATH still stands.
A review of prior such occurrences suggests that price should promptly recapture the upper keltner to keep the momentum ball rolling or else a deeper correction could ensue.
We shall see.
In any case, I am placing great importance on my single up target at the upper keltner band. I want to see it tagged soon... in a matter of days... and not with some bearish candle stick sort of thing.

Mission accomplished. New ATH and upper keltner reclaimed.
Bulls want a good close and to keep marching next week.
Looking to scale out a unit and go risk free stop on runner.

I would like to see ES obey this well defined channel.
If we get a pullback, I would like to see yesterday's highs provide support.
Mr. Market will do whatever he wants, and I have no idea what will happen.

A hair away from a new dow high, and:
NY advancing stocks = 1.20 x declining stocks
NY advancing volume = 0.96 x declining volume
aka: 1-to-1

NYAD: 338 NET stocks are up on the NYSE
That is pizz poor considering that NYAD needs net +750 minimum to be called a strong bull day

Bulls need to work harder

One little issue for me... my intra-day NYMO appears to be down today.
Not exactly validating the price high. Let's see what happens.

1. Slammed VIX into total submission (setting up for a decline in stocks according to Urban Camel's multi year chart)
2. Goosed dollar yen about as far as they dare. Last time they pushed all the way to 120 and it blew up in their faces.
3. Pushed oil to ridiculous high all based on 'faith' in OPEC's word.
What is left to keep this going as we enter pre-earnings lock up for Tim Cook buyback fund?

I think we will see all the charts from 2007 2008 in the weekend reading (once again). Sorry I just don't see the point in buying all time high as consumer driven economy once again teetering on the knife edge of debt apocalipse. Maybe I will feel better after I see bank earnings in a week.

SPX backing off.. VIX never did under cut the Dec 21 lows of 10.93.. possible double bottom VIX daily .. fwiw

T1 and T2 target. buyers should come in here, first dip buying intraday but since I am counter trend already I will sit and see how bad the bulls want it.

Smalls triple top (on my tick chart) getting close to yesterday's close.

Top (weighted) dow stocks
(recall that the dow is price-weighted)
% performance since election
Goldman Sachs in gold

BullBear52x wrote:T1 and T2 target. buyers should come in here, first dip buying intraday but since I am counter trend already I will sit and see how bad the bulls want it.

I am out, I see pushing towards 2278 and somehow "they" want that stupid 20K DOW for the weekend news.

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New ATH on GS today

Shaishen wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:T1 and T2 target. buyers should come in here, first dip buying intraday but since I am counter trend already I will sit and see how bad the bulls want it.

I am out, I see pushing towards 2278 and somehow "they" want that stupid 20K DOW for the weekend news.

`

No new HH means bulls are out of juice intraday.

[add on]
link to the dow weighting info
FYI
http://www.indexarb.com/indexComponentWtsDJ.html

BullBear52x wrote:

Shaishen wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:T1 and T2 target. buyers should come in here, first dip buying intraday but since I am counter trend already I will sit and see how bad the bulls want it.

I am out, I see pushing towards 2278 and somehow "they" want that stupid 20K DOW for the weekend news.

`

No new HH means bulls are out of juice intraday.

you are probably right. Fwiw, based on my theory 2275 is new balance intraday and I see a move out of this area more likely to be to the upside

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bias still is up.

Bears are out!

Bears counter trend failed 2 times, I am not chasing up from here and will not sell unless a trade lower than 2279 SPX ( /es 2274)