Cobra's Market View

Surprising ES went right through VWAP and S1. Would've expected at least some hesitation.

SPX 60m.. holding green trend.. possible red channel.. 15m mind the H&S cyan… VIX triangle, ascending wedge. SPX 20d 2262 neckline 2267 key

My perception ( i.e. can't prove a *#!& thing) is that VWAP is meaningless during strong trends. When we are drifting it seems to be more of an achievable target.

I am way to ignorant to have a handle on why the market decided that today was a good day for a grave stone doji but if I have to guess I would think the calendar is the problem as tomorrow we get the Trump presser which has to be a big question mark, then Friday before the open the big banks report. Everybody knows JP Morgan has a big enough magic hat to meet, but I can't think of why anyone would have high confidence in Wells or B of A. If financials catch a cold as oil is sinking and Tim Cook and friends hit earnings lock up for buybacks then it could be over for now. I am assuming Goldman told the truth when they said rotation out of bonds and into stocks has turned out to be a myth.

back on southbound train.

ABC correction, common chart pattern if bears are serious.

fehro wrote:/CL 60m breaks neckline H&S .. 50d closing in at 49.31

Possible bounce zone for /CL 60m mind the 50d tho..

CL bounce catalyst- it is weekly inventory time but the after the close API number has been way off last couple of weeks so may have to wait for tomorrow's EIA report to generate a move.

ES keeps kissing the bottom of VWAP 2266.75, can't get above for last 15 minutes.

Trades with cats wrote:ES keeps kissing the bottom of VWAP 2266.75, can't get above for last 15 minutes.

Yeah I decided to bail at 66. I'm pretty new at trading ES and put in a bid at 67 expecting a bounce of some kind. Live and learn. Make sure it is going to bounce first. Otherwise, a decent day.

SPY trying to hold 5 DMA

Chart for the road: gap down setup? now that the 5 DMA support was fulfilled with no new high. Distribution is strong. Peace!

HAPPY HOUR

Small caps not giving up, 4 points from day's high but ES not following yet. But there is always the 3:30 ramp.

So much for the last hour lift-off, back to VWAP from above.

well, guess that's it for today. Wednesday tomorrow has been mixed. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

More than a grave stone, using RTH bearish engulfing.

Trades with cats wrote:CL bounce catalyst- it is weekly inventory time but the after the close API number has been way off last couple of weeks so may have to wait for tomorrow's EIA report to generate a move.

I don't know about a bounce.
We have a break of the rectangle to the downside and within the triangle a double top.

(Of course they manipulate it so usually with a high inventory number - which should be negative for prices they manipulate it up.)

Didn't you post something about good numbers at Cushing?
It doesn't seem to have supported prices and Libya said they are increasing (or trying to increase?) their production

"Libya has the 10th-largest proven oil reserves of any country in the world.[9]"

Genscape reported a draw at Cushing on Monday. But with over half coming from outside the country Cushing is just another data point.
Gasoline +1.687MM
Distillate +5.484MM
Cushing -187K
Crude +1.533MM

I don't see anything dramatic, but I do not have context for the distillate build. We will see if this is close to EIA report tomorrow.