01/23/2017 Live Update

[Cobra]

maybe the pullback would be bought?

[Al_Dente]

WH spicer:
trump campaigned on corporate tax rate cut to 15%, now maybe 15-20%

[BullBear52x]

Clockworks.

[Al_Dente]

GOOG is testing resistance at potential double-top
What’s happened to GE? This will affect XLI which is big overweight GE

[BullBear52x]

bigger picture, bulls beware.

[Al_Dente]

zh addresses SKEW which we yakked about on the weekend board
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-2 ... sh-history

[Al_Dente]

What’s the difference between a synthetic bear (buying put protection, selling calls), and a “real” bear?
I’m thinking if folks would start selling more STOCKS instead of using synthetics, then we could see a real grizzly
Tell me where I’m wrong, in detail

[Trades with cats]

Pension fund managers are frequently forbidden to short the market, but they are allowed to buy insurance. I read Lance Roberts twice weekly column and he is always explaining why he is still long for career preservation as a money manager.

I can imagine at some point the insurance morphing into a bearish bet. Having never been in that world I have no idea how savvy the committees that represent the clients are. I would expect that many are outstanding people in their own field but absolutely clueless about derivatives

[Trades with cats]

I think Gandalf wrote a while ago that the huge level of synthetic positions was why the market has been acting like an Imperial Battle Cruiser has it locker in a tractor beam. That is to say unable to break out in either direction.

[BullBear52x]

What’s the difference between a synthetic bear (buying put protection, selling calls), and a “real” bear?
I’m thinking if folks would start selling more STOCKS instead of using synthetics, then we could see a real grizzly
Tell me where I’m wrong, in detail

Be real of anything is hard to survive in this market (Bull or Bear). be flexible, bend with the wind, be bull and bear

[Al_Dente]

thanks bb52x and cats

ELSEWHERE:
Despite the hype, the post-election rally pales (so far) in comparison to last year’s Feb to June ramp.
First leg: From the Feb 11,2016 low to the June 8 high, SPY was up roughly +15%
(If you count the first leg from Feb 11 to the April 20 high, SPY was up about +14% before it pulled back)

By comparison, in the post-election leg from Nov 9 to today, SPY is up about +6%
(If you count the ramp from Nov 9 to the SPY high Jan 6, 2017, SPY was up almost 7%)

Just saying, it’s not an extreme ramp yet, no matter how I measure it

[auger]

"Real " bears blow out their accounts thinking that a market shouldn't go any higher. You're probably right that the derivatives hedging fuel the fire.

[Junior Buffett]

thanks bb52x and cats

ELSEWHERE:
Despite the hype, the post-election rally pales (so far) in comparison to last year’s Feb to June ramp.
First leg: From the Feb 11,2016 low to the June 8 high, SPY was up roughly +15%
(If you count the first leg from Feb 11 to the April 20 high, SPY was up about +14% before it pulled back)

By comparison, in the post-election leg from Nov 9 to today, SPY is up about +6%
(If you count the ramp from Nov 9 to the SPY high Jan 6, 2017, SPY was up almost 7%)

Just saying, it’s not an extreme ramp yet, no matter how I measure it

How about Feb 2016 till today? Is it not far fetched? almost 30%??

[BullBear52x]

Chart for the road: Only Price Pays. sideways short term trading still trap us in range, going no way just yet. Peace!

[fehro]

SPX still struggles at 20d SMA 2265.13

[Al_Dente]

These dow companies report earnings tomorrow (Tuesday) before the open:
MMM, DD, JNJ, TRV, VZ
Wednesday before the open: BA

[Al_Dente]

ATH
GOOG

[auger]

5min SPX channel ruled the day.

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:50 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/01 ... ay-update/

[Trades with cats]

Not being rude, just asking the question, with all the Central Bank and now changing government policy as long as earnings aren't out of line is it going to make a significant difference this time?