02/11/2017 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Smart money covered a little bit this week. The short is not extreme yet so should still be some up rooms.


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[Cobra]

don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here:
viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2357

[Cobra]

No stock picks this week. One thing is strange:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2359

[Al_Dente]

WARNING: politics, but no trash talk
This guy identified the (pretty-much consensus) “Trump trades”: long equities, long yield, short bonds, long USD, short gold.
Then he put them all in a “volatility weighted basket” and came up with a single “basket” chart, and then he breaks it all down.
Kind of interesting, but the charts are from Feb 8, and the article is dated Feb 9, so adjust accordingly
http://themacrotourist.com/macro/has-fa ... rade-ended

[uempel]

Al, a close look at UST might help explain:

WARNING: politics, but no trash talk
This guy identified the (pretty-much consensus) “Trump trades”: long equities, long yield, short bonds, long USD, short gold.
Then he put them all in a “volatility weighted basket” and came up with a single “basket” chart, and then he breaks it all down.
Kind of interesting, but the charts are from Feb 8, and the article is dated Feb 9, so adjust accordingly
http://themacrotourist.com/macro/has-fa ... rade-ended

[BullBear52x]

It is what it is department:

Bears are so weak will the extreme low on $VIX gives another hope of Major TOP? short term Green shoot (MACD)

[Al_Dente]

Al, a close look at UST might help explain:

thanks boss

[Al_Dente]

GET OVER IT
SPX new individual highs (second panel)
It’s obvious that it now takes fewer individual stocks making new highs [see pink boxes] to push the SPX to new highs,
compared to previous years [see green boxes]
Conclusion: I have to GET OVER IT, and quit expecting SPX new highs to be better, as the past numbers tell a different story
This is WEEKLY

[Al_Dente]

Through last Wednesday, 63% of the S&P 500 have reported earnings results for the fourth quarter.
How many cited the new administratin policies in their conference calls? What new policies did they cite the most?
http://insight.factset.com/earningsinsi ... i=42436799

[BullBear52x]

Will you short the SPX if it's guaranteed that you will not lose money?

Look at RSI(5) >90 since the run up from 2009.
the following week you will be in the money most of the time, if not, just hold on the shorts position the market will come back and retest that level so you can get out un-harm. Risk is low shorting market at this level me thinks. or buy put at end of week every week from now until you make money and cash out. so simple don't you think?