07/11/2011 Intraday Watering

[Sqwii]

There is simply no way they can bail out Italy and Spain.... not even one of them....

They better let the Greeks go bankrupt instead of pouring more money into a black hole and save the bankers and rob the people.....screwed world sometimes...

[KENA]

FYI..The NYSEBP turned to up trend last week.In the past it always took a few(several) weeks to make a reverse trend. If it changes to dn in the next couple days this would be the first time in many years.We will have to wait and see.

[99er]

Edit:

SPX
Revised neckline; target now 1276.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/07/spx_3743.html

"L'uomo propone ma Dio dispone."

http://italian.about.com/library/prover ... erbiol.htm

[Cobra]

critical point here. I'm partial out short again, leave the rest to the close or stop loss triggered, let's see.

Cobra, is your projection for the low of the day today also more likely be the low for this week and we'll see some move up in the next few days or do you think the market will go a bit lower before bouncing?

I don't know yet. Judging by what I see now, I'm afraid, today's low is not the low, but if we close low of the day, tomorrow might be green, almost 80% chances. So let's see how market closes today.

[jamesmith]

critical point here. I'm partial out short again, leave the rest to the close or stop loss triggered, let's see.

Cobra, is your projection for the low of the day today also more likely be the low for this week and we'll see some move up in the next few days or do you think the market will go a bit lower before bouncing?

I don't know yet. Judging by what I see now, I'm afraid, today's low is not the low, but if we close low of the day, tomorrow might be green, almost 80% chances. So let's see how market closes today.

laoda, how come if we close LOD, tomorrow has 80% chance green?

[rhight]

SPX sitting on 50 DMA now. TRIN is very bearish (97% down volume) and yet total volume is low (NYTV = 550 @ 3:30pm). So is the sell off not as bad as it seems?

[Cobra]

hmm, looks like I made the 4th call right, too bad I didn't insist. anyway, no idea how market closes today, the best case for bulls is ironically to close low of the day...

[Cobra]

critical point here. I'm partial out short again, leave the rest to the close or stop loss triggered, let's see.

Cobra, is your projection for the low of the day today also more likely be the low for this week and we'll see some move up in the next few days or do you think the market will go a bit lower before bouncing?

I don't know yet. Judging by what I see now, I'm afraid, today's low is not the low, but if we close low of the day, tomorrow might be green, almost 80% chances. So let's see how market closes today.

laoda, how come if we close LOD, tomorrow has 80% chance green?

will let you know why if indeed. otherwise, just forget about it.

[jamesmith]

hmm, looks like I made the 4th call right, too bad I didn't insist. :roll: anyway, no idea how market closes today, the best case for bulls is ironically to close low of the day...

Let me guess, if close LOD, today will be distribution day?

[jamesmith]

critical point here. I'm partial out short again, leave the rest to the close or stop loss triggered, let's see.

Cobra, is your projection for the low of the day today also more likely be the low for this week and we'll see some move up in the next few days or do you think the market will go a bit lower before bouncing?

I don't know yet. Judging by what I see now, I'm afraid, today's low is not the low, but if we close low of the day, tomorrow might be green, almost 80% chances. So let's see how market closes today.

laoda, how come if we close LOD, tomorrow has 80% chance green?

will let you know why if indeed. otherwise, just forget about it. :lol:

Roger!

[Sqwii]

I think we get lower all this week , possible with panic and take out MA(200) this time. 3rd time is a charm... if not, then 1300 should be good support...

[STC]

here's what the market usually does assuming the low is around here. if the market doesn't stop here, then I'll have to cook another plan. let's wait and see. Again, this is just one possibility, any time the previous extreme being tested, there's a chance for reversal and this is what I based to draw my evil plan on this little bit bigger picture. Trading is different, so again, right or wrong doesn't matter to me.

Cobra, on your 15 min chart, do you think SPY may reach the target around 130 first before bouncing or do you still maintain this plan that the low may be in and it'll start to bounce tomorrow?

[Cobra]

hmm, looks like I made the 4th call right, too bad I didn't insist. anyway, no idea how market closes today, the best case for bulls is ironically to close low of the day...

Let me guess, if close LOD, today will be distribution day?

that's only 65% chances green tomorrow.

[Cobra]

here's what the market usually does assuming the low is around here. if the market doesn't stop here, then I'll have to cook another plan. let's wait and see. Again, this is just one possibility, any time the previous extreme being tested, there's a chance for reversal and this is what I based to draw my evil plan on this little bit bigger picture. Trading is different, so again, right or wrong doesn't matter to me.

Cobra, on your 15 min chart, do you think SPY may reach the target around 130 first before bouncing or do you still maintain this plan that the low may be in and it'll start to bounce tomorrow?

I don't know the target yet.
I don't think low was in.
I do think we'll see rebound tomorrow, especially if we close low of the day.
Intermediate-term is till up, at least my CI model still should be in buy mode.
Short-term is officially down now, I'll sell the next bounce and may hold partial short overnight tonight.

[ocassional observer]

i just wanted to point that if the dow doesn't make a new high we have a dow theory sell signal due to the new high in transportation.

[Cobra]

i just wanted to point that if the dow doesn't make a new high we have a dow theory sell signal due to the new high in transportation.

yes, that's right, but it just doesn't have predictive power as when finally we realized Dow theory non-confirmation it's already too late.

[Cobra]

well, guess that's if for day, unlikely we close low of day, so have to wait after close about 20 minutes to know if indeed very likely a green day tomorrow. I think chances are good for a green tomorrow.

[ocassional observer]

i just wanted to point that if the dow doesn't make a new high we have a dow theory sell signal due to the new high in transportation.

yes, that's right, but it just doesn't have predictive power as when finally we realized Dow theory non-confirmation it's already too late.

well, i'm not a trader, so big picture hindsight is fine by me. i position myself based on leading economic indicators, which usually precede the market.

[Cobra]

i just wanted to point that if the dow doesn't make a new high we have a dow theory sell signal due to the new high in transportation.

yes, that's right, but it just doesn't have predictive power as when finally we realized Dow theory non-confirmation it's already too late.

well, i'm not a trader, so big picture hindsight is fine by me. i position myself based on leading economic indicators, which usually precede the market.

In this case, it should work for you.

[ken_d17]

Hi Cobra,

You mentioned waiting 20 minutes after close for indicator on tomorrow (green likelihood). Can you explain what you are looking for?

Thanks,
Ken