02/25/2017 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Smart money covered more this week. The short is not extreme yet so should still be some up rooms.


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[Cobra]

don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here:
viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2372

[Cobra]

Summary of the weeks stock picks. Very strange seems new normal nowadays as it happened just recently.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2367&p=237765#p237765

[Cobra]

The stock picks for the next week... well, very strange, see yourself.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2374

[Al_Dente]

Turns out this is a mega whale, bigger than Dalio’s Bridgewater.
WARNING: POLITICS
This “most successful hedge fund in history” was pretty much cloaked in secrecy. But now a partner got fired (“suspended without pay”) - even though he helped design the fund’s trading systems - because he was on the other side of the aisle from his billionaire boss. He showed that boss his middle finger, and now he’s dishing the dirt.
A peek inside these filthy-rich quant-hedge funds is rather rare, and worth reading regardless of your political bent.
Also fascinating are the many embedded links to other articles.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-2 ... nald-trump

[Al_Dente]

The top of the heap % WEEK-TO-DATE may surprise you

[Al_Dente]

Everything you read this weekend points to how historically overextended the market is.
So, what do you do if you want to start “de-risking” your portfolio?
Well, after buying a few puts and/or selling some calls, you might lighten up on your high-beta stocks (SPHB), then you might want to shed a few of those small little companies (IWM).
Just to lighten up a bit…
Sounds about right, no?

[BullBear52x]

It is what it is department:
There is different this week on short term chart pattern in comparison to last week, this week 2x top selling is stronger case, still indecision but stronger sell setup to the question of 2x top or bull flag breakout?

[Al_Dente]

FOR THE BULLS, long term WEEKLY:
Those following the Value Line Geometric Index XVG have been obsessed with it testing its 25 year multiple top, and noting the divergence.
Now the BREAKOUT is considered an exceedingly bullish signal for the broad market LONGER TERM, especially if it can hold.
(I use Log Scale here because Ned Davis used Log Scale years ago when he tracked this).

[BullBear52x]

HLF hit the snag, after the fact analysis, so quiet here lets talk chart silly....... look at any time we have short term LL, it's time to be cautious, Mid term is still on the buy mode just like SPX at the current level, but a correction could be deep and fast.
Mid term = Buy, not fail yet.

Short term = Sell.

[BullBear52x]

GLD and $TNX, buy GLD until they raise the rate is not a bad thinking.

[BullBear52x]

UUP, I don't need to wait until they raise rate, early bird usually a little over weight, they fed well

Mid term = Buy

Short term is struggling, but HH and HL is still intact with improving on momentum.

[BullBear52x]

QQQ first sell on short term.

[BullBear52x]

You got my point what I look for in short term. Peace!

[QED]

FOR THE BULLS, long term WEEKLY:
Those following the Value Line Geometric Index XVG have been obsessed with it testing its 25 year multiple top, and noting the divergence.
Now the BREAKOUT is considered an exceedingly bullish signal for the broad market LONGER TERM, especially if it can hold.
(I use Log Scale here because Ned Davis used Log Scale years ago when he tracked this).

225xvg.png.png

More info: https://stockcharts.com/articles/canada ... ighs-.html
*Forgot to add: "click" on chart to get a current view.

[QED]

Weekly Market Summary - Urban Carmel
http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2017/02/w ... ry_24.html