03/02/2017 Live Update

[fehro]

All indexes red, TLT red, VIX/VXX red, Oil red, gold red….

[Cobra]

usually this means bears are over, but let's see if today is different.

[Trades with cats]

Oil Highlights from Orangatang Trading who posts free updates after every inventory report at Seeking Alpha
So US production estimated at over 9 million barrels a day, again. Better numbers next week, these are from a model EIA runs.
Imports from OPEC sources for the last 4 weeks are up 24% over last year, up 6% since December
US Crude exports are up 81% over last year, so the report is NET imports down.
Product exports up 21% over last year.
When Venezuela runs out of money and can not pay for light grade US oil exports will drop. Venezuela was paid a while back for a lot of oil by China. Manduro spent the money. Now he has to find cash elsewhere to buy light stuff to mix with the heavy oil for export to China or he defaults on his loan.
US crude inventory is 164 million barrels above the 5 year average, and refineries have slowed down. OPEC target is to get inventory back to 5 year average by summer. That means a draw of 1.33 million barrels a day so if we reduce our imports of about about 9 million barrels a day to around 7.7 million a day we would get to the OPEC goal buy the beginning of July. So now the reason for my attitude that OPEC is clueless about what it will take and why I think those Hedge Fund managers are going to lose on their long bets.

Production values are falling in the Balkan Shale zone and break evens for wells (based on North Dakota Dec reports) need well head pricing north of 70 all in. Apparently the new technology is leading to record depletion rates. A few are OK with costs close to today's prices (assume $10 discount to WTI) but Harold Hamm's Continental Resources, isn't on that list. Selling all his hedges to pay for his divorce is going to cost the shareholders dearly in the long run.

[Trades with cats]

From New York Times via a twitter lead:
WASHINGTON — The case at the Federal Reserve for an interest rate increase in March has gained support and will be on the table when policymakers meet later this month, Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell said on Thursday.

Several Fed policymakers have made the case this week that the U.S. central bank is drawing closer to another rate hike and investors widely expect the move will come at the March 14-15 policy meeting.

"The case for a rate increase in March has come together," Powell told U.S. broadcaster CNBC, adding that he felt three rate increases would likely be needed in 2017.

[Trades with cats]

If you are thinking about selling real estate the clock is ticking on a market drop, thanks to the FOMC and 3 more rate hikes.

[Cobra]

bias is down.

[BullBear52x]

Are we there yet?

[Trades with cats]

Brownian motion or pedesis (from Ancient Greek: πήδησις /pέːdεːsis/ "leaping") is the random motion of particles suspended in a fluid (a liquid or a gas) resulting from their collision with the fast-moving atoms or molecules in the gas or liquid.

[QED]

.
Must be a feature, not a problem, as TSLA is up today!

Tesla Autopilot Crash Caught On Dashcam
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-0 ... ht-dashcam

.

[Al_Dente]

POTUS just started live
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-0 ... -live-feed

[Cobra]

possible higher low, maybe bears are over.

[BullBear52x]

bear flag no more. no mater what bulls will find the bottom, wait for new sell setup now since bulls were just freak out of the bear flag will fall. too late to have new LOD? tomorrow maybe.

[BullBear52x]

Intraday last sell failed to make new LOD, next, the dip will be bought. Just like a clockworks

[fehro]

VIX falls even more.. <20d/50d now.. as indexes red and flat..

[Al_Dente]

HAPPY HOUR

[Trades with cats]

Once again I find a topic and Zerohedge piles on- this time the end of the Balkan Shale.

More interesting and timely to me is that Platts is trying to blame the CL inventory surge on contracts for middle eastern oil signed prior to the production cut compounded by the long sailing times. I think it could be a puff piece because those who pay for tanker tracking info already know week by week how many barrels have left the middle east on their 43 or so day voyage to the US gulf. You know that is valuable because it never shows up for free on the internet.

[BullBear52x]

One more buy before the lady shows up.

Clockworks.

[Junior Buffett]

VIX falls even more.. <20d/50d now.. as indexes red and flat..

I don't know what to believe? Investors have stop worrying about having protection?

[BullBear52x]

Wow! this is serious.

[Cobra]

biggest red, vol surge, 60 min ema20 and yesterday's low, so might be a rebound here first then we'll see.