03/08/2017 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Not sure how far the rebound can go, wait and see.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/03 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

/GC testing 50d/20w/100w SMAs here near LODs

[daytradingES]

this bull shall have legs
H/L est 2374.75, 2364.50
10.25

[fehro]

as per yesterday.. TLT smacked hard.. this am - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-0 ... reach-100?

[Trades with cats]

Last night was the new pattern of Asian selling followed by three moves up after Europe opened. That was a pretty good move, around 7 points, so I gotta agree there isn't a lot of gas left in the European tank. On a New York hours chart the big drop and recovery is of course invisible.

[fehro]

/GC testing 50d/20w/100w SMAs here near LODs

add 20 month SMA at 1210ish, 50d 1209ish 20w/100w 1206ish

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:03 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/03 ... ay-update/

[Trades with cats]

The statistically very noisey (read as unreliable) ADP payroll number triggered the Bloomberg index spike to 100% on March rate hike and caused Goldman to increase their jobs estimate for Friday.

On a not choosing sides basis can anyone doubt a good jobs number will be repeated in the media by the White House. I would think that would trigger even more retail buying of ETFs, and in my view Leprechauns will be buying as well.

[fehro]

/CL daily looks ugly.. be prepared for a sharp drop to the 20w $51.14 just a buck lower.. as oil report is due… /CL <20<50d 200d at 48.67 if 20w SMA goes… then 50w 47.94

[Trades with cats]

DXY spiked with the ADP report and has been going no where since.

Next up is EIA US oil inventory. API said crude down but gas up big, and Cushing storage up. Many think Cushing OK is pointless now as they are essentially at operating capacity. A reminder that big tankers hold a million barrels of oil and it goes down proportionately from there. So one or two Suezmax tankers not unloading in time for the inventory report can create a draw down.

Bigger issue for the Hedge Fund longs is what the heck is going on with no one driving since Christmas Holidays. Car sales at a record but gas and miles (both estimates) looking like a depression. First week of bad numbers Goldman blamed it on a statistical aberration due to delays exporting gas to Mexico. Here we are several weeks later and the numbers have not returned to normal. Especially bad given that the record new car sales are predominantly gas guzzlers.

[Trades with cats]

Fehro- Coolbizone, whom I follow also has been calling for a break in CL, his breakdown level is $50.71, then down to your support levels for the first leg.

[Trades with cats]

Snap, I was looking at the wrong report for API. 12 million barrel build in crude, absolute blow out to new record levels. So even if EIA is decent build who knows what will happen, but the algos will probably bid it up.

[te_fern]

R2000 has been all over the place this morning. Bias is still down....

[Trades with cats]

EIA build 8.2 million barrels. Waiting for the OPEC story to save this market.

[uempel]

RSI on the SPX 120 min:

[Trades with cats]

YES! The algos did move oil up on the bad news because it wasn't as bad as the API story.
John Kemp at Reuters points out US refineries used 400,000 barrels a day less than same week last year.

[uempel]

Yesterday's Zig-zag suggested that today might be bullish ...

[Trades with cats]

Waiting for Godot.

[fehro]

/CL daily looks ugly.. be prepared for a sharp drop to the 20w $51.14 just a buck lower.. as oil report is due… /CL <20<50d 200d at 48.67 if 20w SMA goes… then 50w 47.94

/CL nLOD breaks $52 look to $51.13