03/08/2017 Live Update

[fehro]

wow… /CL

[Trades with cats]

Pasta Boss 10 year yields got nothing to do with the Fed and everything to do with Hedge Funds, at least for today.

[Trades with cats]

Wait, those 10 year treasury shorts are the mirror image of their record longs in oil. I think I see a pattern here

[Trades with cats]

ES, the middle chart. We are at yesterday's low now, if it doesn't hold 2360 was the Globex low and another 6 points isn't unreasonable for a late day sell-off. Just saying especially with the small caps within 2 points of the same target. (Bottom chart)

[Al_Dente]

Pasta Boss 10 year yields got nothing to do with the Fed and everything to do with Hedge Funds, at least for today.

boss please explain
isn't your chart showing the COT on the 10yr treasury bond ($UST, TLT) which is the opposite/reciprocal of the 10 yr yield ($TNX)

[Cobra]

if this is still a range, then should be a rebound here (should be more likely). let's see. key time.

[Trades with cats]

Gasoline usage, which I had claimed earlier was down. Another reason for concern for the oil longs.

[Al_Dente]

Indices
Percentages since election day
(oil and gold are EOD)

[Al_Dente]

NY declining stocks = 2.0 x advancing stocks
NY declining volume = 1.64 x advancing volume

AD finally declared a bear bias intraday
(changes quickly)

[Trades with cats]

Pasta Boss, you are way more savvy about these things than I. My understanding from media is record short positions by funds as they expect rates to go up decreasing the price of existing bonds.I assumed that was what the chart depicted. AS a former auditor I do know what assume stands for .

The write up on the Treasury auction today said they were bidding on 2.58% when issued but the bankers paid equivalent of 2.56% yield which set off the short squeeze because the I Banks were paying over face for fresh paper so clearly there isn't enough to go around and with the debt ceiling cut off they aren't going to be making it much longer. Apparently the Hedge Funds were assuming the post election bond slaughter of 2.61% yield was just around the corner (March 15th). Well as Gomer Pyle used to say "Surprise Surprise Suprise". Also explains why Junk is in trouble with GDP Now dropping another notch. I am trying to say Government paper up, junk down, commodities down, market down must be a flight to quality aka risk off.

[Trades with cats]

ES saved for now at yesterday's low. They better put some air between price and that support because I don't think the ETF's are going to be buying at 3:30 today.

[Al_Dente]

Pasta Boss, you are way more savvy about these things than I. My understanding from media is record short positions by funds as they expect rates to go up decreasing the price of existing bonds.I assumed that was what the chart depicted. AS a former auditor I do know what assume stands for .The write up on the Treasury auction today said they were bidding on 2.58% when issued but the bankers paid equivalent of 2.56% yield which set off the short squeeze because the I Banks were paying over face for fresh paper so clearly there isn't enough to go around and with the debt ceiling cut off they aren't going to be making it much longer. Apparently the Hedge Funds were assuming the post election bond slaughter of 2.61% yield was just around the corner (March 15th). Well as Gomer Pyle used to say "Surprise Surprise Suprise". Also explains why Junk is in trouble with GDP Now dropping another notch. I am trying to say Government paper up, junk down, commodities down, market down must be a flight to quality aka risk off.

Agree Yes record shorts in Tbond futures (your chart) which means the futures folks are betting on more bond down (and yields up).
… But contrarians note any “record” anything…
I found the source of your chart, as we both watch the same stuff
Might help someone else:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-0 ... as-started

ps: thanks boss

[Al_Dente]

HAPPY HOUR

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:26 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/03 ... ay-update/

[Trades with cats]

There goes the small caps. I just looked, seems we were last in these ranges back on Feb 9th or so.
ES coming along for the ride testing the congestion zone from the Asian session for support.

[Cobra]

100% mm possible.

[fehro]

RUT daily is ugly.. <20d/50d Transports loosing 50d SMA

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:48 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/03 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. Thursday tomorrow is the only weekday that still is bear friendly. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[Trades with cats]

The Elliot Wavers will be flooding the blogosphere tonight for sure. Small caps sure looked like an impulsive drop to me. Couple that with crude oil chart and you could almost convince the FOMC that they have tamed the animal spirits that were levitating this market.