03/22/2017 Live Update

[Cobra]

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the rebound probably would fail.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/03 ... ay-update/

[cletus]

I did a study on what correlates most with gold. Some people think interest rates are important to gold. Others think it is volatility or acts more like a currency.

I compared:

GLD vs SPY
GLD vs TLT (bonds)
GLD vs VIX (volatility)
GLD vs US dollar

Findings are here:
http://preciousmetalstrading.blogspot.c ... rices.html

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:00 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/03 ... ay-update/

[Al_Dente]

this is for user13

[QED]

Al_Dente, do you have any thoughts regarding which equities to go long or short for the end of the quarter rebalance? Thanks!

[Al_Dente]

Al_Dente, do you have any thoughts regarding which equities to go long or short for the end of the quarter rebalance? Thanks!

Stocks outperformed bonds this quarter (so far), hence stocks will be sold and bonds bought to rebalance.
But this didn’t work well the last end-of-quarter (December), so it’s in my GRAIN OF SALT file

ELSEWHERE:
[Bespoke]
What happens after the stock market suffers a sharp drop for the first time following a protracted period of quietude?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-th ... 2017-03-21

And Rob Hanna’s latest:

[uempel]

At support:

[Al_Dente]

“Failure to Repeal Obamacare Would Endanger Tax-Cut Goals”
This is being blamed for yesterday’s rout. If they don’t have the votes tomorrow or whenever (and right now they don’t), then it means a BIG delay in tax cuts.
So………. if they can massage the bill to get it through the House……. that could POSSIBLY bounce the markets.
Then rinse and repeat trying to get the bill through the Senate…

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/arti ... 032117_BIZ
and
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-s ... SKBN16S19H

[Al_Dente]

IWM is at “important” support
60m

[Cobra]

maybe we have a down price channel.

[Al_Dente]

Art Hill charts the last few times SPY went down >1% on the day (red dashed vertical lines)

[Cobra]

channel breakout, assume we're in range. wait and see.

[uempel]

Update of my previous chart, SPX daily and grey Trump rally channel.

[Junior Buffett]

Update of my previous chart, SPX daily and grey Trump rally channel.

SPX2.png

Can we expect test of Trump grey channel sometime and see if it sticks...that will for sure validate this channel...

[brokebybernacke2]

health care passes 25-30 pts up initial move
heath care fails 25-30 pts down imo

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:03 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/03 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

pennant, bias is up.

[Daniel]

QQQ holding in OK, staying green.
IWM not showing much push here.

Danger to bears holding short shorts of intraday H&S pattern forming here if price blasts off...

Markets tend to be resilient around ATHs.

[johnnywa]

Maybe one last breath down tomorrow on vote then back up