Back to www.cobrasmarketview.com

   

04/01/2017 Weekend Update

04/01/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Mar 31, 2017 4:32 pm

Smart money no extreme short yet so should still be some up rooms.


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.
Attachments
NASDAQ 100 Combo Hedgers Position.png

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
 
Posts: 36651
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 04/01/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Mar 31, 2017 4:33 pm

please don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2415

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
 
Posts: 36651
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 04/01/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Mar 31, 2017 4:40 pm

No stock picks for next week. Only 208 candidates found which is not normal as we're still close to all time high
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2417

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
 
Posts: 36651
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 04/01/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sat Apr 01, 2017 11:29 am

First Trading Day of April DJIA and S&P 500 Advance 77.3% of the Time
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/15904 ... and-sp-500
User avatar
Al_Dente
 
Posts: 17706
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: 04/01/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Trades with cats » Sat Apr 01, 2017 3:37 pm

CL-

Big article in the Wall Street Journal yesterday about EOG resources talking about their relentless drive to lower the cost of fracked oil. Claiming they will do 2014 volume with a huge reduction in cost. Follow up to the article about the majors getting into shale in a big way with new plays profitable at $30. That seems to be the magic number in print, that under the right circumstances they can do shale at $30 a barrel.

For those that say that the US is still importing 8 million barrels a day of the 16 or so a day we use so what difference will low cost shale make I ask the airline question. Look at how they price a plane. When they are full you pay a lot for the last seat and when they are empty you get a deal. Shale oil is the last empty row of seats, so it really helps to set the trend. It also means that there is a quick response of new supply when price goes up and that supply goes away quickly (short productive well life) so prolonged low prices will rapidly remove that supply as we have seen.

Short term we are rounding the last curve and heading for the home stretch (waiting for the refineries to shift into high gear). Everybody has seen the charts, they all know we better not have anymore larger builds and by the end of the month we should be seeing nothing but drawdowns. Clipper Data said cargos from the middle east will be reduced over the next couple of weeks so good for the bulls. The negative is that the EIA short term models of US production are probably too conservative because of the vary rapid changes in fracking technology increasing well flow rates. I don't know the details but apparently on a regular basis they get actual numbers, calibrate their model and then go back to churning out weekly estimates.

Supposedly a lot of the record hedge fund longs are focused on July being the normal peak demand month so as we move into the home stretch for the big betters I think volatility will pick up. More importantly if and when it becomes clear that the glut of supply is not going away then the first to exit the trade will be trading and everybody who follows will be panicking. We are talking crowd psychology focused on those Ivy League wiz kids playing with tons of leverage. We could speculate all day but without insight from someone inside that world who knows what could cause a sudden turn in psychology. The energy reporters have made it clear that the annual conference in Houston a couple of weeks ago was what triggered the big move a year ago and triggered the quick but short sell down a couple of weeks ago. So I am saying a very well attended weekend party in the Hamptons could conceivably cause a big move in oil.
Trades with cats
 
Posts: 3007
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:40 pm

Re: 04/01/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Trades with cats » Sat Apr 01, 2017 3:48 pm

Sorry, I should say why a panic in the oil markets should be a drop, that is why is it one sided? Well it is pretty straight forward. After the OPEC/NOPEC deal to cut production the producers sent a tsunami of oil into the markets as the caps were imposed. So we are still sitting on record levels of oil inventory, noticeably higher than a year ago which itself was way above the five year average. OPEC experts have an outstanding track record right up there with most of the big international agencies when it comes to making longer term supply demand predictions. Think in terms of throwing darts at the wall. Most recent example was their attempt to bankrupt the US shale producers. So the question isn't if they will cut too much, it is looking for any sign that they have actually cut enough to make any difference at all. :)
Trades with cats
 
Posts: 3007
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:40 pm

Re: 04/01/2017 Weekend Update

Postby TraderJoe » Sun Apr 02, 2017 5:05 am

There is a new 50-Cent making headlines;

There is a new, unknown trader spending a fortune in VIX calls at 50 cents each, While that sounds like a miniscule amount of money, he or she has spent $90 million buying VIX calls at that level.
Traders are now calling the unnamed trader 50 Cent.

Every day the trader comes in and buys VIX calls that are priced at 50 cents. The strike does not appear material just as long as the premium is 50 cents. He recently purchased 50,000 of the May 21 calls at 49 cents or $2.5 million in premium.

On the same day, 15,000 May 20 calls were purchased at 51 cents and 10,000 additional May $21 calls at 47 cents.

Option trackers claim he has spent about $90 million in premium and options costing $55 million have already expired worthless.

He could also be selling VXX futures and using the VIX options as a hedge against the short futures trade. We may never know who is pulling the trigger on these trades but he does have deep pockets.
User avatar
TraderJoe
 
Posts: 875
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:08 am
Location: USA

Re: 04/01/2017 Weekend Update

Postby BullBear52x » Sun Apr 02, 2017 2:37 pm

It is what it is department:
bulls buying are still weak. short term is indecision (not much help I know) TOP wedge is the line I guess.
1.PNG
2.PNG
Trend following with me here http://bullbear52x.blogspot.com/
User avatar
BullBear52x
 
Posts: 18135
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: 04/01/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:49 pm

[Bespoke]
April's been very strong over the last 20 years
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C8RZ5ZyXsAUABD7.jpg
User avatar
Al_Dente
 
Posts: 17706
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: 04/01/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:51 pm

RED FLAG
THESE Put/Call Ratio CHARTS ARE INVERTED, so they become the Call/Put Ratio, where up = calls and down=puts.
IT IS A RED FLAG when inverted-equity options are so far up but inverted-index options are way down.
The retailers (CPCE) are still buying calls, while the pros (CPCI) are buying puts.
Daily chart, as of Friday’s close
42red flag.png.png
User avatar
Al_Dente
 
Posts: 17706
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: 04/01/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:52 pm

LONG TERM, small caps
End-of-month Friday RUT closed on a long-legged red doji after four post-election bull months, and printed an “Outside Month”.
Bears think that means at least a month or two of down testing. (At the very least it may continue back-testing the breakout zone near 1300, or the yearly moving average - 12ma - just below that).
Bulls believe the Outside Month to be a continuation pattern, and all they can see are the eventual purple targets
Monthly chart, as of Friday’s close

This time it all depends on politics, so here’s a Washington D.C. cheat sheet from Deutsche Bank (via zh)
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... utsche.jpg

41month iwm.png.png
User avatar
Al_Dente
 
Posts: 17706
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm


Return to Traders Lounge

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot] and 5 guests