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04/08/2017 Weekend Update

04/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Apr 07, 2017 4:16 pm

Smart money no extreme short yet so should still be some up rooms.


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.
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Re: 04/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Apr 07, 2017 4:17 pm

please don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2423

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Re: 04/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Apr 07, 2017 4:21 pm

still no enough candidates, so no stock picks for the next week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2425&p=239387#p239387

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Re: 04/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Fri Apr 07, 2017 6:12 pm

$VIX futures are finally in backwardation (April 6 and 7)
THAT’S RARE, and it can change quickly
Backwardation favors VXX and UVXY

GOOD READ on why the VIX can get disconnected, and how/why Q1 average volatility was the lowest on record
“They [big money mgrs] used to buy insurance in the form of options contracts to protect their portfolios against sharp moves. Now, they are selling it.” :o
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-0 ... loop-theor
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Re: 04/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:37 pm

While rooting around trying to figure out why junk was strong while smalls were weak, I came upon this.
So the market is saying that oil above $50 severely reduces the risk of mass oil-company defaults.
(ignore vertical lines)

48junk v oil.png.png

In fact, here is a percentage performance picture of the last ten days showing oil (USO) in pink

48ten days.png
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Re: 04/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby BullBear52x » Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:18 pm

It is what it is department:
Short term we have bearish MACD rejection. not a bull friendly warning.
4.PNG
1.PNG
Trend following with me here http://bullbear52x.blogspot.com/
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Re: 04/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby user13 » Sat Apr 08, 2017 8:58 pm

Looks like SC stopped updating some decision point indicators...Sigh
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Re: 04/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Trades with cats » Sun Apr 09, 2017 12:43 pm

This article is all about NY Fed's Dudley and record shorting in the bond markets. We see a few ripples in our world.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-09/confusion-bond-world-eurodollar-shorts-hit-new-record-high-over-3-trillion

Again, at the risk of being a broken record, the Federal Reserve is live streaming Chair Yellen's public conversation with the head of the Gerry Ford public policy school at the University of Michigan Monday at 4:10 with, it is reported, Chair Yellen responding to questions asked via twitter. With the number 3 on the FOMC roiling credit markets on Friday by "clarifying" his prior remarks you have to assume the Chair will be moving markets Monday evening. AS I posted sarcastically last week, maybe she is just establishing her credentials as a guest lecturer but I would take the other side on that bet.

According to Wikipedia the Ford School is in a tie with Harvard as the most influential school of public policy in the country. They are oriented towards analytical solutions. It is mostly a dual degree mill for graduate students also working on Law, Economics, etc. etc degrees. Not a forum for casual or meaningless conversations. Given the students it is no wonder the lecture hall filled in 30 seconds. I would think that audience questions would be really wonkish. :ugeek: With the press corps limited to curated twitter questions I am confident nothing will be said about on going investigations and early resignations, I am betting we won't hear about that until she faces congress again. :twisted:
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Re: 04/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby QED » Sun Apr 09, 2017 1:18 pm

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Re: 04/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Trades with cats » Sun Apr 09, 2017 1:27 pm

CL- Thank-you Pasta Boss for pointing out why the Wall Street Crowd and the Federal Reserve are not going to pull the rug out from under the hedge funds that are helping to hold up oil prices with their record long bets.

Positives from this week's charts was the continuing decline n US distillate inventory. I personally think it is not a clear win for three reasons that all require a couple of week trend before they can be ignored.
1. Mexico. US exports have been steadily increasing. A couple of weeks ago when we had a panic the shorts level of distillate build Goldman was all over it claiming it was an anomaly in the weekly inventory report caused by under reporting exports to Mexico. I ask, doesn't a timing issue on weekly government reports go both ways?
2. Last time NY Harbor storage filled they started sending coastal product tankers to Florida and the gulf region. When those tankers were "at sea" the cargo wasn't included in inventory. So on any given week if they are slowed up unloading or something it is very possible for loads to disappear for a week into the Gulf of Mexico.
3. Colder than normal weather in March blamed for a huge miss in jobs creation. Assuming that was construction then a whole lot of great big pickup trucks stayed home, let alone the excavating equipment digging foundations, so that should have meant a build, not a draw. So either there is no correlation between employment and distillate usage over a short time period or something doesn't quite make sense.

Longer term, they are steadily re-lighting the burners at refineries around the US so production should continue to increase. Iraq, western African producers and Venezuela are increasing their cheating on quotas. It was reported that Asian surpluses are dropping but that has yet to show up in the US inventories. We are rapidly reaching the make it or break it point where we see nothing but draw downs for week after week. No matter what you think of the President's pivot on middle eastern policy you must agree that it is making oil markets nervous. So I expect more jerking around by algos on news and inventory reports until a real trend is established that makes or breaks the longs.

If the longs fail and we get the panic decline that I do think history favores, then as Al Dente pointed out this weekend the carnage could easily move out from the oil futures market to junk bonds and I would add many high dividend ETFs.
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Re: 04/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Trades with cats » Sun Apr 09, 2017 1:34 pm

US liquefaction capacity.jpg
US liquefaction capacity.jpg (34.98 KiB) Viewed 495 times


Nat Gas- I have posted this before, it is the reason I think we are in a long term bottoming process. By the way, I have zero confidence that coal as we know it will make a comeback.

John Kemp at Reuters continues to post weekly inventory charts showing the small but persistent effect of exports. New wells have not increased supply. Unfortunately bankruptcies do nothing to production, they seem to be just financial. Anyway we are rapidly moving into the time of year when we get to see what base load without heating or cooling looks like. So if you are going to make a bet on Natty better get your chips in your hand and find a table.
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Re: 04/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sun Apr 09, 2017 2:50 pm

[ALMANAC]
“On or after the first full day of Passover [the first full day of Passover is Tuesday 4/11], DJIA is generally positive with average gains on the day, two and three days after. Since 1997 the first day of Passover … has been up 16 of the 20 years… “
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/15931 ... n-passover

But then there’s this:
SELL PASSOVER
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/15916 ... folio-sell
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Re: 04/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby QED » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:08 pm

"Good Friday: SPX is typically strong the 3 days before and after this holiday. The week after Good Friday is April OpX, another seasonally strong week. Seasonality has not been particularly accurate over the past few months, but these are potential short term tailwinds (from Sentimentrader)."

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Re: 04/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby QED » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:09 pm

April Macro Update: Employment Growth Continues to Decelerate
http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2017/04/a ... rowth.html
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