04/28/2017 Live Update

[Cobra]

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no idea up or down here, need see more bars.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/04 ... ay-update/

[Trades with cats]

Smalls off to an interesting start

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:03 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/04 ... ay-update/

[Trades with cats]

ES RTH Floor Pivots and estimated ADR's

[Trades with cats]

For those who read Elliott Wave charts, Pretzel Logic has posted an intermediate term bear porn count. Not his preferred count but apparently he felt it had enough of a possibility to put it up. He is calling yesterday a completed wave 2 so of course the count depends on the market dropping through all those empty places on the horizontal volume charts in a truly terrifying (to those who think the Fed put is forever) wave 3 down. A 3 down is the ideal piece of bear porn.

[te_fern]

The smalls are moving down. The MA lines have gone negative....

[Trades with cats]

Small reach the Average Daily Range Low (20 day average calculated on Globex hours) so this is usually the end of the line for a down day. It seems kind of early though, so who knows.

[Trades with cats]

Market has 20 minutes to get it's act together and find a bottom in time for the Lunch Money trade.

[Al_Dente]

Small 15min
First lower low, and almost filled gap
Backtest failed
IWM options traders remain on the long/wrong side (see faint blue dash behind price)
Who wins a divergence? Price is always “right”
Then why bother to track 1/RVX? Good question
I’m thinking the options traders may reflect the sentiment of cash traders, who don’t want to “throw in the towel” just yet.
I’m just ruminating here... grain of salt… why do traders want to stay on the “wrong” side here?
Maybe expecting a big bounce or …… who wants to be wrong? ... why not out?..... you can always jump back in later.....
Comments welcomed

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:10 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/04 ... ay-update/

[Trades with cats]

News from my twitter feed. Senate passes stop gap spending shut down averted for 7 days at around noon.
NY Fed GDP model revised from 2.7 to 0.7.

I think this makes it pretty clear Dudley is running a Shriner Clown Car chapter. Now as a person who reads Elliott Wave websites perhaps it is dishonest to criticise the NY Fed for continuing to include sentiment factors in their model, but I don't think so. I do not see Elliott wave as a general forecasting tool as clearly it is the user, not the tool. Atlanta Fed model is based on hard data, it's track record speaks for itself. Atlanta model has been insync with the numbers from discretionary spending ( i.e. a sinking ship).

[Al_Dente]

OEX large caps, biggest gainers today
If Google were a dow stock, the dow would be up hugely

[Al_Dente]

NY declining stocks = 1.6 x advancing stocks
NY declining volume = 1.6 x advancing volume
Bear bias, but this is a koala; we want a grizzly

[Al_Dente]

I broke the cumulative ticks up into two panels, and cut it back to 18 days, easier 4 me to read
Nasd TICKQ crossed to sell, which is astonishing given GOOGL and the monster techs
Ny TICK is holding long, but weakening
Just because TICKQ was “best” over the last 20 days doesn’t mean it will be “best” going forward
Note that the thick faded vertical lines are the TICK signals and the red/green boxes on TICKQ are the TICKQ signals
Further note that earlier, when the market went whipsaw, the TICKQ reflected that by in out in out etc., while the TICK barely held long thru the whips
My point is that I can’t be surprised if the TICKQ gives us more in out in out etc., if we whipsaw.

[Al_Dente]

ATH (by one penny) on junk HYG today

[Trades with cats]

Is it gonna bounce?

[Al_Dente]

knock three times
iwm and spy

[Cobra]

possible descending triangle, bias is down.

[Al_Dente]

NY declining stocks = 1.6 x advancing stocks
NY declining volume = 1.6 x advancing volume
Bear bias, but this is a koala; we want a grizzly

NY declining stocks = 1.6 x advancing stocks
NY declining volume = 1.4 x advancing volume
ditto