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04/29/2017 Weekend Update

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Cobra
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04/29/2017 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

Just start a new thread so that guys can have chat in the weekend. Actually every registered user can start a new thread, you don't have to wait for me to start a new one.

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Cobra
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Re: 04/29/2017 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2447

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Cobra
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Re: 04/29/2017 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

No stock picks for the next week, here's strong stocks count. don't forget we hit all time high this week!
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2449&p=240118#p240118

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Al_Dente
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Re: 04/29/2017 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Tom McClellan:
“Junk bonds are the canaries in the stock market’s coal mine.”
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... _a-d_line/
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 04/29/2017 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Momentum has started to wane.
Strongest is QQQ, health, and discretionary.
(Why strong discretionary? Because XLY is overweight AMZN at 14%, plus HD home improvement at 7.4%, and etc.
If you substiute equal-weight discretionary RCD, it is starting to wane).
Weakest is banks and IWM.
This uses stochastics-7 for momo (middle panel). Default or other settings work fine too… personal preference.
429momo.png.png
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 04/29/2017 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

[Almanac]
May’s First Trading Day Historically Bullish
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/16009 ... ly-bullish
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
user13
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Location: New York

Re: 04/29/2017 Weekend Update

Post by user13 »

Any one know where you can read the Global Fund Manager Survey?
tsf
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Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 7:49 am

Re: 04/29/2017 Weekend Update

Post by tsf »

Bank of America Merrill Lynch global fund manager survey
______________________________________________________________________________

US equities the boldest contrarian trade right now

Fund managers worry US S&P 500 index is overvalued but history shows that may not be the case
The Short View

https://www.ft.com/content/0b6c1ca2-24f ... f7e0cd0a16

What is the boldest contrarian trade in the world right now? The answer, possibly surprising to some, is to invest in large US stocks. Supposedly “smart” money is now more convinced than at any time since the financial crisis that the US S&P 500 index is looking dangerously overvalued.

A survey this week of global fund managers responsible for investing $500bn of assets by Bank of America Merrill Lynch found that 83 per cent of respondents thought US stocks were overvalued, the highest number to hold this view since 2008.

Because of these fears, those managing this sizeable pool of cash have reduced exposure to the US stock market by 21 percentage points in April compared with March, ramping up positions in emerging markets and Europe instead. But is it really so obvious that US stocks are expensive? They certainly seem no bargain but financial bubbles do not tend to form when the majority of market participants are fearful.

Anyone tempted to doubt the collective wisdom of this wall of cash would do well to consider the following. The trailing earnings yield on the S&P 500 stands at about 4.6 per cent, according to Bloomberg data, nearly half the level that during the lows of the crisis. When inverted to a multiple, this works out at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.5 times — a valuation many professionals fret is too high. Their logic is driven by the idea that when rates rise as expected this earnings yield will move higher and the value of equities will fall.

Yet history shows this is not always the case. In September 1992, the S&P 500 earnings yield touched a low of 3.7 per cent, with the US headline interest rate at 3 per cent. By 1994, the Federal Reserve had begun to raise rates, doubling them to 6 per cent by 1995 and sending the S&P earnings yield to more than 6 per cent during that year. So what did US stocks do? Between the middle of 1992 to the end of 1994, the S&P actually rose 15 per cent.

Anyone who had bought in 1992 before rates went up and held to end of the decade would have made two and a half times their money. Investors would do well to remain cautious following an eight-year bull market but should also be suitably sceptical of the prevailing consensus.

____________________________________________________________

http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/19/investi ... -election/

The Trump rally is facing some new competition from an unlikely spot: Europe.
Despite an unnerving election in France looming, investors are dumping pricey U.S. stocks in favor of much cheaper ones in the embattled eurozone.
That's according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey of global fund managers that found investors have become the most bullish on the eurozone in 15 months.


____________________________________________________________


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fund-m ... 2017-04-19

Fund managers are avoiding U.S. stocks like never before in this bull market
Published: Apr 20, 2017 10:01 a.m. ET

“Uncle Scram” — that is how strategists described the latest moves by fund managers.

Allocations to U.S. stocks have fallen to their lowest levels since January 2008, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s global fund manager survey for April, released Wednesday.

Positioning in U.S. equities has dropped to a net 20% underweight, down from 1% overweight a month ago. This allocation is below the long-term average, noted the strategists behind the survey.

The catalysts behind the scramble away from American stocks include their expensiveness, as well as growing worries about delays for much-anticipated U.S. tax cuts.

“A net 83% of investors think [the] U.S. is the most overvalued region, the highest response on record,” said BAML strategists Michael Hartnett and Jared Woodard in a note.

Back in early 2008, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.19% was on its way to a big loss for that year. The U.S. stock benchmark eventually found a bottom in March 2009, when the current bull market is widely viewed as having begun.

So what do fund managers like now?

Love for eurozone stocks EZU, -0.11% has surged, despite the French presidential election, which has its first round of voting on Sunday, the strategists said. The rotation last month to eurozone stocks from U.S. equities was the fifth largest since 1999.

Respondents see a 5% or 10% drop for European stocks if populist candidate Marine Le Pen become France’s next president, but investors have become less worried about the European Union’s possible disintegration, the BAML survey found.

Last month, the survey revealed that 67% of fund managers expected a bear market for stocks if the 10-year Treasury yield rise to a range of 3.5% to 4%.

On Thursday morning, the S&P was trading slightly higher, putting the index up more than 4% for the year.

This story was first published on April 19, 2017.
_____________________________________________________________
tsf
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Re: 04/29/2017 Weekend Update

Post by tsf »

https://www.seeitmarket.com/testing-mov ... tfs-16809/

Testing Moving Averages On Popular Stocks & ETFs
David Bergstrom
Build Alpha

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The question I pose is… Have you ever tested to see if that truly is the case? In this post I will examine 4 popular moving averages and their impact on returns across 30+ ETFs and popular individual stocks since January 2006. In this case, pictures say more than any more text can.

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ETF

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BullBear52x
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Re: 04/29/2017 Weekend Update

Post by BullBear52x »

It is what it is department:
short term weakness is clear but mid term buy is still pending.
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My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 04/29/2017 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Regardless of the fact that 10 big stocks are dominant, equal-weighted SPY BREADTH (RSP) shows great strength (albeit potential double tops).
430equal weight current.png.png
In fact, Goldman asks whether stocks are relying too much on a handful of giants. It answers, historically, no.
430gs ten bigs.png.png
How important is equal-weighted breadth?
Well, one glaring example can be seen in the big October 2007 top, when SPY (purple) made its final high, while equal-weight SPY (RSP, black) gave us a very loud negative divergence.
Also seen here is the July 2007 SPY high, while equal-weight refused to high and instead printed a negative divergence with a double top.
So the fact that we currently have a strong equal-weight with no divergence (yet) is bullish.
This is longer term and has little to do with intraday and short term gyrations.
430oct 07 high and rsp.png.png
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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