05/04/2017 Live Update

[Cobra]

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in range, no direction. right now near range high, so suppose to pullback if still plan to stay in range.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/05 ... ay-update/

[Daniel]

XLE 20+ day low, triggers a 'Donchian sell signal'

[Trades with cats]

I have "Way of the Turtle" by Curtis Faith on my bookshelf. Some of them made a lot of money trading Donchian breakouts. And his channels had been around for 40 years at the time. Goes to show that new and shiney isn't always better.

[QED]

Nice morning flush to wake the market up!

[Trades with cats]

Just a reminder, tomorrow is the Hoover Institute Monetary Conference at Stanford. The Fed Chair and Vice Chair will be speaking throughout the day with an afternoon panel with three Fed members including our favorite Mr, Bullard.

[Trades with cats]

Yesterday's VWAP always seems to be a strong attractor in these morning maneuvers.

[Daniel]

I have "Way of the Turtle" by Curtis Faith on my bookshelf. Some of them made a lot of money trading Donchian breakouts. And his channels had been around for 40 years at the time. Goes to show that new and shiney isn't always better.

It has the virtue of being a purely objective and unequivocal signal.



Whether one should act on it or not... ah, there's the complexity. In range bound markets it's not successful-- just as any breakout strategy will languish.

[Trades with cats]

There goes the lunch hour. House to vote on healthcare between 1:15 and 1:45 today.

[fehro]

/CL - USOIL 45.75ish .. better support W/D

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:02 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/05 ... ay-update/

[Trades with cats]

I know that reading that book made a big difference to my understanding. System trading sounds easy on paper but the Turtles demonstrated that it is not.

[Daniel]

EWG (Germany) 52 week high

UUP, XBD, DJT lod

[te_fern]

Tick started out high this morning, but has been falling ever since!

[Trades with cats]

CL-we are 3 and a half weeks away from the start of the summer drive season and the refineries are running harder than they were last year. OPEC/NOPEC has shown zero reduction in exports to the US. They will be claiming they have slowed to Asia but the reality there is the availability of credit to non-state owned refiners. The Hedge Funds, acting as a new buyer in the market moved prices up by at least $10 anticipating future scarcity. Scarcity, or demand rising faster than supply, hasn't happened yet and doesn't seem to be happening. The Hedge Funds bought with very large levels of leverage betting heavily on time spreads as well as outright longs. None of that oil is being used by them so it all has to come back into the public auction market. If anybody likes to kick a trader when they are down it will be the same reporters who were cheering on OPEC price spike so they could panic the retailer crowed in the oil etfs.

Or not. On paper we could see some huge draws but with the satellite ship tracking and the 40 plus day voyaging time word would be out if the number of full tankers in the Gulf of Mexico starts dropping at an alarming rate.

[Trades with cats]

Pasta Boss put this group togather of the top 10 names that account for over half the year to date move in the S&P 500. Take a look and see how many are doing well as we exit earnings.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/cand ... L,V,PG|M|0

[Trades with cats]

Genscape Cushing Storage: 69,170,125
+112k bbls from Apr 25
+491k bbls from Apr 28

Drill baby drill.

[te_fern]

60 Min leverage energy ETF is not predicting about higher oil prices.....

[Cobra]

still could be range day so likely just to test the day low instead of a real bear.

[te_fern]

Interesting article on times....

http://www.tradermentality.com/2016/02/ ... times.html