06/08/2017 Live Update

[fehro]

Fehro, have you been noticing some of the interesting divergences which are showing up in the energy universe? While USO/Crude is struggling with new lows--and likewise the energy service providers--some individual largecaps like XOM and CVX are coming up hard off such lows, and showing RS... and the XLE in general has been stronger than the commodity.

I'm looking at Stockcharts single-panel multicharts, but I don't have upload capability at this terminal. However it’s not hard to visualize, the point is that some subsectors are starting to outperform.

Hmm XOM resetting very heavy overhead 18month supply on the daily XLE same thing.. daily looks awful.. so no. my /CL projection is still sub $40 barrel .. to $36 … if USDollar continues climb, by late summer / fall

[cletus]

Those calling the markets significantly higher are making a near-impossible statistical claim. There were only 3 times in the last 20 years that the VIX was under 10 for extended period of time. Here, I highlight one such case. In early 1994, volatility stuck around 10 for several weeks, only to see a major plunge of 10% shortly after. I will not go so far as to claim the market will collapse 10%. I will, however, suggest that at minimum, volatility must mean revert which normally would bring the markets down. It has never been more risky to be long than it is right now, by statistical standards.

[Cobra]

almost 100% mm, this bull may have legs.

[fehro]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... h-since-92

Here’s something to ponder for everyone who says nothing ever happens anymore in the U.S. stock market.

It’s the sudden torridness of momentum shares, which through last week quietly staged their longest streak of gains in a quarter century. The MSCI U.S. Momentum Index, which tracks companies with the most price appreciation in the last two to 12 months, rallied 11 straight days through Friday, the longest stretch since October 1992.

[Daniel]

my /CL projection is still sub $40 barrel .. to $36 … if USDollar continues to climb, by late summer / fall

Autumn.. that's like, um, the Future!



I'm always in the default day/swing timeframe of this board unless I indicate otherwise-- and I heartily approve whenever anyone specifies a timeframe, in a post. In 'normal' markets cross-market sector analysis can sometimes pick up short-term trend emergence, perhaps a few hours before the momentum-behemoths pick it up. These sharp short countertrend moves can be useful either for hedging or for outright speculation. And they often show first as divergences.

[brokebybernacke2]

election across the pond as expected...no surprise thursday...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06 ... ults-live/

[fehro]

my /CL projection is still sub $40 barrel .. to $36 … if USDollar continues to climb, by late summer / fall

Autumn.. that's like, um, the Future!



I'm always in the default day/swing timeframe of this board unless I indicate otherwise-- and I heartily approve whenever anyone specifies a timeframe, in a post. In 'normal' markets cross-market sector analysis can sometimes pick up short-term trend emergence, perhaps a few hours before the momentum-behemoths pick it up. These sharp short countertrend moves can be useful either for hedging or for outright speculation. And they often show first as divergences.

then.. 60m far right.. bullish falling wedge? retest of April low? 43.73? undercut.. blow out stops? pink channel? highly speculative short term see purple.. lines..

[fehro]

INDU/NDX/COMPQ nATH .. RUT just 8 points short of ATH

[Trades with cats]

Copy and paste from the MSCI Momentum Index PDF https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/f3 ... dc90fad923



TOP 10 CONSTITUENTS Index Parent Index Sector
Wt. (%)
AMAZON.COM 5.65 1.85 Cons Discr
FACEBOOK A 5.62 1.63 Info Tech
MICROSOFT CORP 4.98 2.38 Info Tech
JOHNSON & JOHNSON 4.76 1.61 Health Care
PROCTER & GAMBLE CO 4.63 1.04 Cons Staples
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP 3.58 0.78 Health Care
NVIDIA 3.46 0.36 Info Tech
ALPHABET A 2.79 1.35 Info Tech
ALPHABET C 2.71 1.38 Info Tech
TEXAS INSTRUMENT S 2.46 0.38 Info Tech
Total 40.64 12.75

Somehow this looks familar. But no Apple and no Netflix.
Not to be redundant but it needs to be said. Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet are dependent on cloud computing services for their stock value, in probably descending order. Facebook and Alphabet are dependent on targeted advertising for revenue, and a significant amount of that is used to pay for cloud computing. So it is a bit of an interrelated mix and the whole thing needs targeted advertising to keep it going. When that pulls back it will rival the last tech wreck. From a finance person's point of reference on line product sales are a whopping 9% of where Amazon gets its money, so they are actually a cloud computing and online retailer services/infrastructure provider with a small demonstration business as the kicker. Just like Tesla is a financial enterprise that extracts money and tax credits from the government with a small unprofitable car manufacturing business as a kicker.

[fehro]

XLE daily fwiw

[Daniel]

IWM 20day (+) high! Donchian stopBUY signal!

SMH new 52 week high!

Semis are the commodity of the info age. Who cares about the gross chemical commodities anymore.



One cannot be bearish on SPY when the semis are leading, it rarely has major problems when that's the case.

By the way, Fehro, that XLE daily chart is indeed fugggugly, and as Trades w Cats always points out, subject to sudden inventory surprises to the upside, as rig counts stay high. But even still, nothing precludes a sudden upsurge to run stops and test that clear downtrend line one more time-- a sizeable move in swing (2-5 day holding) timeframes.

I read a study in the past that technical indicators on Exxon predict crude futures better than the reverse, and XOM recovered from the recent crude price swoon with alacrity, as did CVX, another integrated behemoth and a mutual fund favorite.

[Trades with cats]

No idea why but as you can see the R2K Futures had a very nice and very clear to see run up today while the ES has been a bit more 'difficult'. I guess that is why I watch both because usually one is working. Downside is the TYF (typo, TF) has a much lower volume so it would be dangerous to trade more than a handful of contracts in my opinion.

[Cobra]

100% mm down?

[trader24]

100% mm down?

What do you mean by mm?

[q2model]

100% mm down?

What do you mean by mm?

measured move

[fehro]

careful on AAPL on 8 month uptrend daily.. from elections lows.. b sm pos AAPL P lottos - next week for possible gap down tomorrow.

[fehro]

something to watch into the close

[fehro]

careful on AAPL on 8 month uptrend daily.. from elections lows.. b sm pos AAPL P lottos - next week for possible gap down tomorrow.

153.96 20d SMA

[Trades with cats]

something to watch into the close

Out on twitter Northman trading is calling it "Like a candle in the wind" .

Heck of a day for those who are out of power, they are 0 and 2 in politics. Central planners have done OK with Super Mario going straight down the middle on policy. So the big thursday turns into the big yawn. Serves me right for reading press reports.

Marketwise I think there just wasn't enough chaos yet for the accumulated shorts to ignite a move back up to higher highs but hey I don't hold overnight so I really don't have any skin in that game.

[fehro]

INDEXes dailies.. a race to the wire. . how will the paint 'em? Indexes looking toppy, gold and vix bottom ishy 14minutes to go!