Cobra's Market View

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double bottom. maybe the low was in.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/06 ... ay-update/

SPX 2434 possible resistance… fade the gap? .. if not green/pink 60m left chart?

Hs no more valid

As per yesterday… .caution on the USD/CAD breaks multi year support.. CAD could explode up huge! look to possible huge pain coming in CDN real-estate.

fehro wrote:SPX 2434 possible resistance… fade the gap? .. if not green/pink 60m left chart?

gotta little more room to Green/darkblue.. Mind the morning gap . NDX 5762 20d SMA just 10 points higher from HOD.. may tag it today.

fehro wrote:SPX 2434 possible resistance… fade the gap?

Maybe not yet. VXN, RVX lod... may be at least some more upside...

These week should be volatile don't you think ?

Wallstreetrader wrote:These week should be volatile don't you think ?

nah.. nothing going on , just FOMC rate hike possible with news conference.., OEW, Politics, huge moves in oil gold and dollar.. just the usual..

talking oil… buckle up..

CL Getting ready for fireworks-
US shale production at all time record and the rig count just keeps on climbing.
Saudis cutting exports to the US dramatically to multi decade lows, as in from around 1.2 million a day to 850,000 a day.http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabi ... 1497346203
Cushing showing decent draws for the last two weeks according to Genscape.
BUT
OPEC members exempt from the Vienna agreement have increased production to the point that overall production is back to where it was.
Summer driving season refinery production ends sometime in July so time is very short if they are going to get a meaningful reductions in stockpiles.
Hedge Funds have to continue to believe in the OPEC cuts. Since December we have seen what happens when they get cold feet. They just were reminded what happens when someone tries to check out of a five star hedge fund hotel so I would think they are going to react fast to bad news in CL.
Carmageddon is continuing to develop and as subprime loans go bad and consumer credit stops increasing all those newly hired wait staff folks won't be joyriding in their new to them fancy cars. Just to make it worse Detroit is extracting the last of the potential buyers for the new, super efficient pick-up trucks with incentive packages we haven't seen since you know when.
Finally, when will the Dragon stop drinking? Because when they say we have enough in our SPR perhaps a million barrels a day will hit the market.

My opinion is it looks like the Saudis are all in on a desperate bluff. They have yet to actually reduce production beyond seasonal swings and were counting on the gullibility of the hedge funds to do all the work. Well the pigeons have started to figure out it is a scam so the players are being forced to put some of their own skin into the game. I don't think it will work, they completely underestimated US shale and were too desperate to announce a deal by what ever dead line Goldman told them they had to meet (seasonal trends) so too many members were exempted. So yes the con game will become clear as we get July inventory reports unless we read about empty tankers piling up in the Arabian Gulf and off Singapore right now. Watch for headlines about new lows in tanker rental rates and negative guidance from conference calls.

Again, VXN and RVX both fresh lod-- often a short heads-up that price has not yet peaked..

And yet, there is FXY, often a short heads-up of RISK OFF, hitting its HOD.

Market are feeling their way today...

Tick and TickQ are still diverging.....

NY advancing stocks = 2.0 x declining stocks
NY advancing volume = 2.1 x declining volume

Nasdaq advancing stocks = 1.9 x declining stocks
Nasdaq advancing volume = 1.1 x declining volume

Bull AD must stay strong

...

ALL SHORTS
ALL JUICE
ALL PERCENTAGES
10 DAY
The only short still above the zero line (red) is QQQ and it is fading
zh reported that QQQ (black) is back to its crash level. U can see that is not true (Q crash day was 9 june)

What a dick
IWM the only intraday breakout
Failed (trying to fail)
5min

Half hour before the London/Frankfurt close the usual surge, then at the close a second move up that quickly failed. Small caps back to where they were, an hour and a half round trip while the ES is struggling to hold on to some of those gains. So a big nothing of a day.