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06/20/2017 Live Update

Re: 06/20/2017 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:09 am

Some twitter posters say the yen gold direct correlation is pretty solid.
I think the difficulty with the Yen US Market correlation is it is a two part one. First it has to be clear to the big guys that they can repay yen loans with equal or cheaper dollars, Second they have to think they can make a profit on the money in the US market. So I would think it is weaker around all time highs and stronger on by the dip opportunities. But I only know what others write on this.
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Re: 06/20/2017 Live Update

Postby Shaishen » Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:19 am

The endless struggle to find a tiny edge. Gold and Yen..oth gold moves depend a lot on King Dolla.

" it is weaker around all time highs and stronger on by the dip opportunities." great observation - Thanks

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Re: 06/20/2017 Live Update

Postby QED » Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:19 am

Today is the last of the roll from the /CL July contract …

The “situation” in Syria is getting very serious …

Today could be the low in oil for now. :roll:
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Re: 06/20/2017 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:21 am

15 minutes left and the ES is going for a retest of the days low. IF we do a melt up for the rest of the day starting sometime in the next hour it would not be the first time :) Of course the opposite is possible but with no statistics to back me up it seems that the straight up day is usually followed by a couple of range days before we do the straight down on heavy volume thing.
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Re: 06/20/2017 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:26 am

ES 09-17 (5 Min)  6_16_2017.jpg

This is last week and this is the pattern I was thinking of.
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Postby MrMiyagi » Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:26 am

QED wrote:Today is the last of the roll from the /CL July contract …

The “situation” in Syria is getting very serious …

Today could be the low in oil for now. :roll:


$37 Crude might be the bottom. Still a ways to go.
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Re: 06/20/2017 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:30 am

testing day low, key time. fib 61.8% mm is possible.
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Re: 06/20/2017 Live Update

Postby fehro » Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:44 am

SPX 2443-2 last weeks highs... go.. look to fast move to 2434 possibly, gaps fills
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Re: 06/20/2017 Live Update

Postby QED » Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:44 am

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Re: 06/20/2017 Live Update

Postby Shaishen » Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:49 am

ES triple bottom off IB low and positive divergence..place your bets

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Re:

Postby fehro » Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:52 am

MrMiyagi wrote:
QED wrote:Today is the last of the roll from the /CL July contract …

The “situation” in Syria is getting very serious …

Today could be the low in oil for now. :roll:


$37 Crude might be the bottom. Still a ways to go.


I concur this level 43.75ish fails.. then 39.45 next key level.. May hold it may not.. then $36ish.. possible worth a stab at a long term swing.. /CL weekly chart fwiw
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Re: 06/20/2017 Live Update

Postby QED » Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:55 am

Crude hits new 2017 low … but are investors too pessimistic?
http://bit.ly/2sSpC8o
Last edited by QED on Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 06/20/2017 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:57 am

Shaishen wrote:ES triple bottom off IB low and positive divergence..place your bets

.


The people in the control room in the Marriner Eccles building are staring at a 10 point drop to Fridays close to fill that gap. I don't think the most powerful woman in the world would be pleased if they let it happen without some sort of news item for the press to talk about. :twisted:
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Re: 06/20/2017 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:00 pm

Rut Row here we go again in the ES. I guess the bulls can't stay focused.
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Re: 06/20/2017 Live Update

Postby Shaishen » Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:09 pm

Trades with cats wrote:Rut Row here we go again in the ES. I guess the bulls can't stay focused.


ES: Today value at 2443 right now which could indicate visit to yesterday's low, back to IB low again - break down now or another bounce?
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Re: 06/20/2017 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:10 pm


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Re: 06/20/2017 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:12 pm

...... reposted ....
Last edited by Al_Dente on Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 06/20/2017 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:13 pm

QED- thanks for that. Always good to hear what Phil Flynn is thinking. Some nuance pointed out by Stock Board Assets blog today. I did not know (but it makes sense) that Nigerian Bonny Light and Texas fractured oil are pretty much interchangeable
for the few refineries that use them.

More importantly (in my opinion) is that Phil says we are reaching break-evens for the shale boys. What he didn't say is they sold a lot of production at the higher prices this winter supposedly because their bankers made them (Dallas Fed) so their average selling prices won't drop as fast. Still Junk bonds are ignoring this for now. Oil makes up somewhere around 20 to 30% of the High Yield market. No idea how much relates to retail and shopping mall owners. Just saying the legs on the High Yield stool are getting sawed off.

With Illinois in the warm up circle ready to follow Puerto Rico into muni-default it makes you wonder how much longer before the major outflows from the various bond ETFs and funds start.
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Re: 06/20/2017 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:15 pm

Low volatility stocks/ETFs are often recommended for boring defensive portfolios, as low vol is generally considered “lower risk.”
Because of the low VIXes, “low volatility” tech stocks are showing up all over the place.
"technology now represents 11.3% of the $7 billion SPX Low Volatility Portfolio SPLV, which buys the least-volatile SPX 500 stocks.
That compares with 2.9% a year ago."
Problem is obvious, right? Big vol spike, managers sell tech, folks may be surprised to find their quiet, boring, low vol ETFs unexpectedly down, maybe not in lock-step, but surely more than they expected.
More here:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-1 ... orth-apple
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Re: 06/20/2017 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:18 pm

Al_Dente wrote:The dow
YESTERDAY [Bespoke]
Due to some pretty significant sector rotation that we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks, the 30 members of the Dow are pretty scattered right now. In a “rising tide lifts all boats” type of market, you’ll see the entire Dow moving higher in unison. That’s not the case right now as some stocks in the index are overbought, some are neutral, and some are oversold.
Of the 13 overbought stocks… BA, JNJ, MMM, and TRV are at the most extreme levels.
Of the 4 oversold stocks, NKE is the most beaten down. DIS, INTC, and AAPL are the remaining oversold names.
On the downside, VZ is the deepest in the red with a YTD decline of 12.65%. GE, CVX, XOM, and GS are also solidly in the red.
A couple of weeks ago, AAPL was the best performing stock in the Dow on a year-to-date basis, but declines have left it up just 22.84% YTD coming into [yesterday]. BA is now the best Dow stock so far in 2017 with a gain of 26.18%.

ooops, forgot the table
619dow bespoke.png.png
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