Cobra's Market View

YESTERDAY, note to self:
SKEW 125.46
Not very many folks loading up on cheap OTM puts
Not sure why, don’t they want more protection?
Not sure if that’s bullish or bearish
TODAY:
Okay then it’s bullish, WDIK

maybe pullback here which again would be bought.

For what it's worth the Mon. after hours P Bar of 243.64 has been reached. Now lets see what happens.

No matter how much you want to be a bearish...I think all the BEARS should bow down to this mighty BULL...absolute power and no chance of surviving...throw the towel on my short..go out just inch positive..left all the profit by holding into yday close...phewww...

HOLIDAY CALENDAR:
Tuesday July 4 holiday, market closed.
The NYSE and Nasdaq both close early at 1 p.m. ET on Monday July 3 and remain closed through July 4th.
[By comparison, Congress is out for 10 days ]

fehro wrote:TLT going to make the market parabolic? TLT weekly ugly candle.. days to go at 50w SMA .. bear flag, cyan line goes.. look for 30% drop in bonds.

Bond money rush to commodities? inflation anyone? DBC 2 1/2 yr invs H&S 200 SMA goes near neckline 15.50ish.. could see $22

VIX outside reversal.. yet NDX/COMPQ inside days.. still … TRANsports strong.. TLT holding 20d SMA .. up all morning.. down all afternoon?.. crazy talk..

Junior Buffett wrote:No matter how much you want to be a bearish...I think all the BEARS should bow down to this mighty BULL...absolute power and no chance of surviving...throw the towel on my short..go out just inch positive..left all the profit by holding into yday close...phewww...

1. Never fight the Central Bankers-apparently while they all said equities were too high they didn't really want us to bring prices down just yet.

2. When your bankroll can handle it equity futures make it possible to set a stop loss when you go to bed and have it honored in the middle of the night. BUT on a major news night (look at US election) it is possible to have the circuit breakers triggered. So 7% (first breaker) of 2,400 is 168 points times $50 per point is equal to $8,400 per contract. Don't forget CME minimum margin of $4,400 (bet your broker wants more) so roughly to have survived something like the election night election night you would have to have at least $13,000 equity per contract. But that controlled $120,000 nominal of S&P index.

generally the pullback should be bought.

ES VWAP at 2434, usually it will be tagged sometime before closing.

HAPPY HOUR

No comment needed. I gotta start making more money so I can get one of those Bloomberg's!

Should have taken Pasta Boss's advice from several days ago and held my nose and jumped in!! LOL!

Evening reading. Nassim Taleb talks about intelligent and educated people that are also idiots. Great example at Canaccord McAdams. Quant explains how he blew up clients in oil trading. Love the chart where he says inventory draw downs always lead to price increases and shows the 30 year scatter plot. Standard fallacy of quants proving that wet sidewalks cause rain, proving once again that you really do need to know something about how things work before you use technical analysis.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-2 ... change-one

well, guess that's it for today. Thursday tomorrow has been bull friendly recently. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp