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07/08/2017 Weekend Update

07/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Jul 07, 2017 4:18 pm

The institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows distribution line is about to cross over the accumulation line, so again, a few weeks of more accumulation and a few weeks of more distribution, to me it just argues a range market.
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Re: 07/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Jul 07, 2017 4:20 pm

don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2529

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Re: 07/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Jul 07, 2017 4:26 pm

No stock picks for the next week. Here's the latest strong stock count
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2531

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Re: 07/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Fri Jul 07, 2017 8:49 pm

RETAIL
"Canary in the coal mine."
"Why pay $20/ft for mid-rise office space, if you can now move into an abandoned Sports Authority for $5/ft."
"The next step is that rents will drop — dramatically."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-0 ... %93-part-2
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Re: 07/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby tsf » Fri Jul 07, 2017 8:50 pm

Source: @selling_theta July 7, 2017

https://twitter.com/selling_theta/statu ... 7744455680

......... VIX DOES NOT MEAN REVERT. VIX is a statistic whose 'mean' is disrupted by outliers > 20, 25, 30, whatever.
Statistics don't revert back to outliers. Rather, once the outlier is reached they (VIX) *MODE* reverts.
Think of it in terms of your body temperature. Your steady state (mode) temp is 98.6. When a fever strikes - an outlier - it can reach 103+
The reversion happens when the fever breaks and you get back near 98.6 again. It's the same with the VIX.
The VIX is the market's temperature. Something usually has to happen for it reach an outlier level.
Just because we haven't had a fever in months, it's doesn't mean we are due. And it certainly doesn't mean VIX will mean revert.
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Re: 07/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Wallstreetrader » Sat Jul 08, 2017 7:43 am

So is not good idea using MM's into VIX ?
Bull Market No dought !
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Re: 07/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby tsf » Sat Jul 08, 2017 11:56 am

Wallstreetrader wrote:So is not good idea using MM's into VIX ?


I am still learning, and reading material by Eli Mintz, Vance Harwood, Bill Luby, etc.
At this point, the take away for me is to stay with the market trend.
VIX has more chance to mean revert when it is high above some upper BB.
Perhaps, Dr Al and other experienced traders in this forum can shed more light on your question.
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Re: 07/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Trades with cats » Sat Jul 08, 2017 2:49 pm

I don't trade the VIX and I don't use it, but I sure have read a lot about it over the last couple of years. I think there is a strong parallel from the crude oil market. In crude you have the major commodity traders with 100 billion dollar bankrolls, the hedge funds and small investors. Strong opinions cause hedge funds to suddenly take positions that don't make any sense then eventually they are either washed out or proven wrong by fundamentals. Last eight months have been an outstanding example. Then there is excitement when the big boys see a way to leverage upcoming trends to make a quick profit off of the hedge funds. Glencore buying up the north sea output for a month when scheduled maintenance was taking part of production off line then betting on a sure thing is an excellent example from a year ago.

These days a whole lot of hedge funds and others are using exotic leveraged instruments to sell volatility. We saw what was a fund partially blowing up a couple of months ago where they had to go into the market for three days and trade in size to offset their volatility bets. So my guess is that trading the VIX is going to be like trading oil on fundamentals, you will only be right part of the time because of the hedge funds. Even though I try very hard to be a positive person I do not tolerate stupid behavior easily, so I think this volatility selling to keep the decay premium will result in a new version of "When Genius Failed" to add to our libraries. The huge amount of retail money funneling into ETF's is just going to make it that much worse because when they start to panic it won't be the hot stocks, it will be the entire S&P 500 that gets hammered. After this happens my shins will be bruised for months from my wife kicking me under the table everytime someone we know starts talking about their market losses. :)
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Re: 07/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby tsf » Sun Jul 09, 2017 1:42 am

Trades with cats wrote:I don't trade the VIX and I don't use it, but I sure have read a lot about it over the last couple of years. I think there is a strong parallel from the crude oil market. In crude you have the major commodity traders with 100 billion dollar bankrolls, the hedge funds and small investors. Strong opinions cause hedge funds to suddenly take positions that don't make any sense then eventually they are either washed out or proven wrong by fundamentals. Last eight months have been an outstanding example. Then there is excitement when the big boys see a way to leverage upcoming trends to make a quick profit off of the hedge funds. Glencore buying up the north sea output for a month when scheduled maintenance was taking part of production off line then betting on a sure thing is an excellent example from a year ago.

These days a whole lot of hedge funds and others are using exotic leveraged instruments to sell volatility. We saw what was a fund partially blowing up a couple of months ago where they had to go into the market for three days and trade in size to offset their volatility bets. So my guess is that trading the VIX is going to be like trading oil on fundamentals, you will only be right part of the time because of the hedge funds. Even though I try very hard to be a positive person I do not tolerate stupid behavior easily, so I think this volatility selling to keep the decay premium will result in a new version of "When Genius Failed" to add to our libraries. The huge amount of retail money funneling into ETF's is just going to make it that much worse because when they start to panic it won't be the hot stocks, it will be the entire S&P 500 that gets hammered. After this happens my shins will be bruised for months from my wife kicking me under the table everytime someone we know starts talking about their market losses. :)



Thank you, TwC.
I don't trade volatility, but I try to learn more about it.

As an aside tidbit, I've read this observation from Stefanie (The Stock Whisperer @VolumePrintcess) and another account on Twitter:
large block trades of VXX (and the likes of it) seem to foretell terror events.
There were some occasions like that, but I don't know if this is a case of wet sidewalks cause rain.
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Re: 07/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Trades with cats » Sun Jul 09, 2017 12:05 pm

OILhttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-08/when-facts-change-oils-biggest-cheerleader-capitulates-andy-halls-full-bearish-lette

This is it, the biggest bull has joined Dennis Gartman in saying oil is going down. But if you have been watching the Hedge Funds are already back to record net short positions a week ago. And yes the big boys did squeeze them when we got a bullish inventory report, just like they always do. So this oil thing is never easy and never straightforward. You have to watch the "official media chatter trend", the fundamental story, the positioning of the traders, shale hedging, the tanker market, refinery shut down cycles, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and winter fog on the Houston ship canal. Oh, don't forget demand by consumers for gasoline, airlines for jet fuel and truckers and trains for diesel. Add in that everybody with skin in the game keeps good technical charts and all US traded positions have to report once a week for publication with the in-accurate estimates of product inventory and demand and you can paper your office with charts once a month.

Compared to watching stuff like Apple and MSFT energy is a regular Game of Thrones. Is it worth learning for the average person ? Well it chewed me up and spit me out a decade ago when I didn't know what I didn't know about what was going on, but the Koch brothers have had a different experience. ;)
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Re: 07/08/2017 Weekend Update

Postby Wallstreetrader » Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:37 am

GM

"As N. Korea Warns of Nuclear War; Haley Seeks Strong Response From U.N."
...“another world war.”...
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/pat ... esponse-un
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