Cobra's Market View

Took a stab on the Semi's with Techs having pulled back... NTA

maybe a price channel.

te_fern wrote:

fehro wrote:

fehro, I would call that a double top....

and/or bearish rising wedge.. not sure..

fehro wrote:

te_fern wrote:

fehro wrote:

fehro, I would call that a double top....

and/or bearish rising wedge.. not sure..

Looks like it broke the double top. Still near highs, which is a concern with that rising wedge......

The Semi's died as soon as I bought some...

TICK is starting to weaken....

QQQ now below the 20ema intraday, after last week's rise, a pullback/profiteering event wouldn't be a big shock.

Little pop up into the London/Frankfurt close and now back into the overnight/morning price range. If anybody is running a 15 minute chart we are close to repeating the big ugly red bar at Friday's close. Not that it means anything, but the pattern, admittedly in miniature of escalator up elevator down is not really that bullish in my opinion. Now the small caps, they are more like it, elevator up, elevator down in nice solid 4 point runs.

Still waiting for Netflix tonight to make something happen here in the summer doldrums.

All my ranting and raving about how the 28 year old Ivy League history magers running other people's money are the dumb money in the oil market has a small amount of validity. John Kemp at Reuter's explaing how after three consecutive losing trades the hedge funds are getting investor push back on continuing exposure to the oil markets.
https://t.co/dFD8haqkcy

He shows how their unwinding of relatively record level short positions has not moved prices very much because there are lots of sellers. My guess is of course (from my weekend rant) shale drillers who got greedy and didn't sell into the spring rallies getting pressure to cover next year's interest payments as well user industry hedging programs that are trying to ratchet down their positions. I don't know the GAAP rules on airline hedging costs but if there is a way you can bury buying at the top in the current quarter and take the low price replacement cost to next year's bottom line then they would certainly be doing that to manage one of their largest operating expenses. Bottom line, for whatever reason, lots of holders of oil contracts (or creators of same) see prices going lower in the future but not hedge funds.

The shorts getting out reduces the odds of my thesis that inventory surprises in August September driven by reduce shipments from the middle east plus hurricane shut in's in the Gulf of Mexico would lead to short sharp rallies. Without hedge fund short covering that will mean just the usual half day or less algo driven pop.

Trades with cats wrote:All my ranting and raving about how the 28 year old Ivy League history magers running other people's money are the dumb money in the oil market has a small amount of validity.

(Um. History majors. )
But.. better history majors than English majors or drama majors. At least they're familiar with studying history-- and much market behavior (on the macro level) repeats.

"Those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it." - Santayana

Algos didn't find my stop loss for once, still in the semi trade. Starting to move up, we'll see.

a new price channel.

MrMiyagi wrote:QQQ now below the 20ema intraday, after last week's rise, a pullback/profiteering event wouldn't be a big shock.

minor H&S QQQ 5m from Fri' Aft.. LOD goes.. look to possible target of 141.70, then 141.30

QQQ flat from the Open. Yet VXN is near its HOD. This is not bullish for tech.

All 25 ETFs I track intraday are within the top half of daily range, except USO, SLV, FXY

Definitely a risk ON profile.. although a mild one. Very few 1% gains on the day.

=> update: multi-sector HOD here.. but gains still small.

Daniel, Pasta Boss posted an interview with a 28 year old Hedge Fund manager a while ago. He was 28 and running a lot of money. He had started at Bridgewater, also known as 'Big Ray is all in cause the Fed has my back' and gone on to leveraged success. He preferred to hire Ivy League history majors like himself because they were more capable of seeing opposing views at the same time. Many moons ago when I was an undergrad I took first term marketing. The Professor had an ice rink and he had hired a very bright liberal arts grad to run it. It was a disaster. So the idea of people with no real knowledge of the dismal science who's only experience has been trading in this long running bull market running highly leveraged Hedge Funds strikes me as a very bad idea long term and the 28 year old history major as a great shorthand way of saying it.

SPX AD and the equal-weighted SPY and the NYAD all confirmed last week’s highs
(chart as of friday's close)

So far a confirmed top and stop. Waiting for price action to show this wasn't a Fed inspired short covering rally. If it was then we spend weeks doing the drop and then test the high thing once again. Being just a week or so out from FAANG reporting, with N kicking it off tonight at the close I am going to quote the master "need to see more bars".

IF that is the low it is NOT a higher low.