Cobra's Market View

Nothing happening so far. Not going to bet on it but expect (if things are normal) for a Sunday night melt-up with a gap and go open to try and retake positive momentum. Problems that I see:

1. Oil short covering rally pushed by scramble by refineries to find enough sour crude. Would you want next month's production dependant on Venezuela? Remember the Saudis are cutting way back.

2. Inflation numbers say Fed rate hikes are over so dollar weakness ahead.

3. FANGS growth is critical to the story stock status. Insert famous clip from "Silicon Valley" show where they explain why you can't have earnings. Amazon is clearly only about cloud computing and business services, Facebook already has 83% of US and Canadian adults as users, so where is the rapid growth coming from India where an Iphone is a year's wages? I am not saying I phone is a bad product, half my family has them, I am saying what is the growth rate? So now the concern is switching to when to take profits, not when to add.

4. Anybody counting on major tax reform is also sleeping with teeth under their pillow (they believe in magic) after the dysfunction shown over healthcare votes.

5. Chinese credit tightening with no other Central Bankers stepping up to print fresh money.

So with my wall of worry I am sure higher record highs ahead.

Of the 25 or so sectors I track intraday, about half are in the upper 50% of daily range, about half in the bottom.

UUP making another 20+ day low.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-2 ... lume-highs

.. recent odd spate of new 52-week highs in the S&P 500 on days in which declining volume on the NYSE actually exceeded that of advancing volume. There have actually been 6 such new highs in the past 3 months.

If that doesn’t seem like a big deal, it is actually a record number of such days within a 3-month time period. In fact, it is double the previous record number of 3.

I'm sure it's fine

Big Five tech:
20 day percentages
Is FB enough to keep the QQQ up? It is only 5.9% of the QQQ (it’s the fifth heaviest weight of the Big Five)
As you can see from the black QQQ, FB solo isn’t enough; it needs help from the others.
If they can continue, those bounces in GOOG and AMZN should help

xop LOD; xle close..

Daniel wrote:On spy and qqq, just as breadth was not that weak when price was at the intraday low, breadth is not that much better now that price is close to (spy) or near (qqq) the intraday high.

update: 'bout the same-- NYSE advancers HOD, Naz close.. but tepid absolute numbers--no wonder price is meandering in a tight band

WFC
“…As for customers asking for money, the total amount demanded - and paid out - is about to get much higher…”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-2 ... nds-heads-

breakout more likely.

Mutual Funds time, whump whump whump here come the behemoths.

XLF hod! Many other sectors poised to hit highs.

INDU, IBB, EWZ and many others hod!
IWM struggling to hold above the (flat) 15min 20ema

SPY hod, Naz advancers hod!

MYSTERY:
The one minute TICKQ (on the nasdaq) printed a minus -1100 BEFORE yesterday’s rout
Was that a fluke or a warning?
One min, 20 days

IWM making a bid at closing strong..

Looks to me short term bottom until midweek high then down

well, guess that's it for today. Monday will be the last trading day of a month which usually favors bears. thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

please don't forget our weekly sentiment poll which will be posted right after the close.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

Our weekly sentiment poll is here:
viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2553