Cobra's Market View

fehro wrote:

fehro wrote:mind the pop and drop, bear flags /NQ /ES and Rut fut 30m

SPX takes out 2469 look to 2456, 2455ish 20d

gettin closer... bottom line, health care reform did not pass, tax reforms at risk...should be interesting autumn.

INDU nATH Tryin to keep the 6:00 news rosy & happy (aka retail).. https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/07 ... tocks.html

It would be an unusual day for that raspberry pink ADR low line to be above the day's close. Waiting for the New York Drift to start in an hour or so.

WTI was supposed to be breaking out into that $50 price point based on US refiners scrambling to find enough crude while Washington gets ready to block Venezuelan sour from the US. Instead we got an OPEC profile saying over 80% compliance with the production cuts while output hit a new high for the year. So blame the Libyans, Nigerians, Iraqis and Iranians if your hedge fund went long last week and it isn't exactly paying off yet.

My Dad ran the in house power plant at a major midwestern food processor. They burned Natural Gas with an interruptible contract which forced them to go to heating oil. One time a hot shot in purchasing bought a barge load of Venezuelan and when they burned it it stunk up half the town. That stuff is just nasty heavy high sulfur. Point being the refiners that are set up for cheaper heavy (Valero) aren't going to want to run light sweet fracked oil. Same thing with the light grades out of Libya and Nigeria so this could have some real plot twists as it plays out.

Got stoped no more db

Almanac:
First trading day of August (tomorrow) stinks
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/16353 ... to-deliver

Thanks, Pasta Boss. I do think we need a bit more down to build the rocket fuel supply. Wave counters are both waiting for this fifth wave to end in a new high. Finishing up earnings and the August recess in Washington seems like a good place for an A B C correction to start which is certainly needed to reset the table for the late fall up move. IF the Fed doesn't kill it.

That would make sense as a road map to get us to the 2018 recession the bank forecasters are calling for. Of course I am sure the market will have it's own map and it doesn't like to share!

Pushing towards that first resistance pivot.

Trades with cats wrote:Thanks, Pasta Boss. I do think we need a bit more down to build the rocket fuel supply. Wave counters are both waiting for this fifth wave to end in a new high. Finishing up earnings and the August recess in Washington seems like a good place for an A B C correction to start which is certainly needed to reset the table for the late fall up move. IF the Fed doesn't kill it.

That would make sense as a road map to get us to the 2018 recession the bank forecasters are calling for. Of course I am sure the market will have it's own map and it doesn't like to share!

Participation
Here’s the thing:
Thursday the SPX made an ATH
Participation waned on the short term (percent of stocks above 20ma, top panel, purple)
And participation waned on the medium term (percent of stocks above 50ma, bottom panel, purple)
This is as of Friday’s close; we’ll have to see if they recover tonight
Theoretically we’ll be fine if they can stay above 50-60%

fehro wrote:INDU nATH Tryin to keep the 6:00 news rosy & happy (aka retail).. https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/07 ... tocks.html

INDU nATH again - everyone else still red, VIX green,

Just to add to what Hirsh was saying, here is a new tweet from Coolbizone

"July 1998, July 1999,July 2007, July 2011, July 2014 and July 2015 have been ST tops in the market. Is it going to repeat in 2017? will know "

THESE TYPES OF STORIES ARE CIRCULATING FURIOUSLY, and they should impact our tech favorites:
Procter & Gamble, the 800 pound gorilla, cut over $100 million out of its digital advertising spend in the fourth quarter, and this is what happened, according to [CFO] Moeller: “We didn’t see a reduction in the growth rate.” And he added, “What that tells me is that that spending that we cut was largely ineffective.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-2 ... pened-next

And more from giant Unilever:
“Some 60% of traffic online is bots. "We want to buy eyeballs of viewers not bots," says Weed [head of Marketing].
"If it is too good to be true, it probably is."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-3 ... g-about-it

QQQ 5m fwiw .. it's a bear flag, in bear flag, intraday of 3 day

Yes ! Facebook saying 83% of US and Canadian non-prison over 15 years old population is on their service at least monthly says market saturation in a big way, combined with the advertising gorillas pulling out says to me we will see a sudden elevator down for no apparent reason. Again, not being negative about people in underdeveloped countries, just pointing out the obvious, they have very limited money and time for accessing toys like facebook, so I do not see how growth in those markets can maintain the pace that was used to justify the multiple. Text book study is CISCO systems.

Small Caps half way to green, steady up while the ES just keeps blinking red, green red green sitting on Friday's close.

They gotta go somewhere
Rotation out of tech and into banks and oils

News Bulletin: Scaramucci has resigned as White House Communications Director.

Monster bang the close in energy pushing WTI above 50.