Cobra's Market View

Gap down but within yesterday's range, so chances are the gap will be filled. The Global ES looks like a revisit of the previous low therefore as long as the low not decisively broken or even better with a higher low then chances are the low was in. So let's watch how the yesterday's low being tested.

market up and down so crazy.

alf wrote:market up and down so crazy.

this market has lost its marbles.. un-trade-able. futures are extremely thin..

Good Morning.

Honey...where is my phrase book?
EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/eurusd_04.html
The French or German one?

Amazing...last night, a bullish sentiment invaded vorious blogs, on the internet!
What happened?

Well...the Qs were very methodically lifted during an engineered "intra-day reversal", above the 4/8 pivot - well ahead of SPY and IWM. NDX was also the only index lifted above the popular 200 DMA. VICTORY…LOL!

But, in the process of doing that, THEY created an ascending wedge...and the NDX internals, both on daily and 130 min charts failed to give a BUY signal.

Today, I am ready for another whipsaw....and getting closer to a flash crash - yesterday we had a rehearsal!

Extreme volatility is often associated with a trend reversal.

Honey...where is my calculator?
ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/es_04.html
Let's see...400,000 times 18...

So honey...what does Dr. Copper say today?
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/copper_04.html

Merde.

i am building a position in crude with talks of the fed buying bonds again. gold is surging. people will jump into oil again as a hedge against debasement. plus we are down 7 days in a row...also at the bollinger band bottom. even with the dollar rising, curde is not falling... means it wants to go up. my stop is 90.61 gap.

If mkt wants bet fed for QE3, should drop to hell on Aug 9th.

agnosia wrote:i am building a position in crude with talks of the fed buying bonds again. gold is surging. people will jump into oil again as a hedge against debasement. plus we are down 7 days in a row...also at the bollinger band bottom. even with the dollar rising, curde is not falling... means it wants to go up. my stop is 90.61 gap.

I hear you. Seems so logical...which is why I'm staying away at the moment. With the US$ likely to spike upwards, as a better (bad) alternative to the Euro, oil will continue down. And with world economies slowing further, oil demand is going to continue to stagnate if not decline.
Just saying.
Good luck.
A

the open. by the way, I wonder how many of you still remember what I said yesterday before the close? Even I had a doubt above what I said: 2 3 push up so at least a weakness this morning. Let's take this chance to remember, the chart pattern more likely to continue the next day even lots of things could happen overnight.

Anaconda wrote:
I hear you. Seems so logical...which is why I'm staying away at the moment. With the US$ likely to spike upwards, as a better (bad) alternative to the Euro, oil will continue down. And with world economies slowing further, oil demand is going to continue to stagnate if not decline.
Just saying.
Good luck.
A

Thanks for your input anaconda. I'm just buying one contract now but will add on volume surge of "dumb money" which will trump fundamentals. Maybe i should just buy gold already ...It's just too extended right now though.

One of several charts showing SPX at support. This is no invite to go long, but it shows that lightening up on shorts might be a (short term) option. I'm not doing anything with SPX, as I'm trading more volatile European markets at the mom.

Vroooom.
SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/spx_04.html

Life in the fast lane.

Great work as always Cobra, I agree with you last night about the 1,2,3 pattern on SPX / NDX 5 and 15 min

lots of people on sites I read talking about " flash crash " possibilities ? let's remember that crashes come at and from low and oversold levels !!!! not at peaks, so YES this is a possibility setting up....and throw in all this black swan type europe news that is unpredictable and cannot be quantified via the charts, and BOOM this is a dangerous period, so tread very very light , small and carefully for now.

GM,
sell first ask question later, lost my breakfast money going long

Lucky I didn't go long yesterday. Was gonna see what's up today before I do.
Now just watching the EU charade.

BullBear52x wrote:GM,
sell first ask question later, lost my breakfast money going long

I honestly don't think flash carsh happens during market hours. There is a circuit breaker rule.

BullBear52x wrote:GM,
sell first ask question later, lost my breakfast money going long

maybe u need to diet ?

just joking obviously!!