Cobra's Market View

fehro wrote:

fehro wrote:

fehro wrote:RUT weakens.. bonds holding oLOD.. still have index gap fill potential.. not sure yet

nibble again.. short SPX 2442.75

SPX 5m possible expanding wedge.. red.. looking to lower lows 2415ish.. next lower gap… not sure…. if not cyan channel.. upper edge near 50d SMA

50d it is.. almost there 3 points higher 2450.2ish .. stopped out again.. too early

Classic bounce to the 50% retracement of the last drop. I see a really skinny area on last week's volume profile up to the 76% level. Just a coincidence but the first drop this month was retraced to that level. Not forecasting a repeat but it certainly is setting up.

SPX almost at 50d.. just a point short

VIX has remained pretty quiet today....

3rd time a charm? nibble short.. 2448.50 SPX

ES hit the 20 day ADR high 2448.25 and reversed. So, at least so far this is not an unusually big move day. Statistically the odds favor the high for day is in.

the pullback will be bought

20 days, five min

bias is up.

WH on lockdown… news coming - unattended package left at fence.. fwiw.

fehro wrote:WH on lockdown… news coming - unattended package left at fence.. fwiw.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/pu ... 515e527b39

stray amazon box

brokebybernacke2 wrote:

fehro wrote:WH on lockdown… news coming - unattended package left at fence.. fwiw.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/pu ... 515e527b39

stray amazon box

from Jeff Bazo… a drone drop off..

Classic gap and go trend day on SPY. "All bulls need is imagination" - Cobra

There's still too much liquidity, and competing instruments are still so paltry in their yields. It is hard to imagine where to put cash even if an equity manager wanted to raise cash levels. This adds to the resilience of the bull uptrend, which, even tho it's weakening, is still dangerous to short.

EOD, BPSPX renko and BPNDX renko came into the day still on late July SELL signals, as pointed out by Al D. in the Cobra weekend update. But the old bull still has some pop and snort in him.

20d/50d > closes.. bulls happy

XLF hod into the close, and tagging (from below) the (still downslope) 15min 200ema.

First time since last Thursday.

Daniel wrote:Classic gap and go trend day on SPY. "All bulls need is imagination" - Cobra

There's still too much liquidity, and competing instruments are still so paltry in their yields. It is hard to imagine where to put cash even if an equity manager wanted to raise cash levels. This adds to the resilience of the bull uptrend, which, even tho it's weakening, is still dangerous to short.

EOD, BPSPX renko and BPNDX renko came into the day still on late July SELL signals, as pointed out by Al D. in the Cobra weekend update. But the old bull still has some pop and snort in him.

sure does- but if i were a sadistic bear, i'd pull the rug right here...

well, guess that's it for today. Wednesday tomorrow has been bull friendly. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

ES really overshot the 20day ADR high , I was surprised by the strength. But the Small Caps TF futures didn't come close. So I am suspicious of what is going on. We have now had two days of crazy buying in oil because of some press release that later on (when human traders take over) gets reversed. So I see a day like today and wonder if the algos are behind this move in the S&P the way they were in oil. ES bounced twice at this level last Thursday morning and when it failed to hold it dropped the rest of the day. So today we failed to get above that level again, and we are in the correct range for the next wave down. I guess in a day or two we learn if this will be a five wave drop or if it was just an ABC correction before the next sequence up to higher highs propelled by the words of the Central Bankers later in the week.