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Re: 08/24/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:38 am
by Cobra
roughly 100% mm, better more.

Re: 08/24/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:43 am
by fehro
fehro wrote:
brokebybernacke2 wrote:
fehro wrote:SPX takes out 2440ish yLOD (2436) -- looking to Tues' 2434-2424 open gap


careful, vix not confirming slippage ...yet


be very careful here.. key time it goes.. potential 2405 SPX /CL hit hard <20w SMA already <20d/200d/50w


RUT still no nLOD still hasn't take out yLOD.. that goes.. indexes in big trouble.. looking to gap fill then 2434-24 SPX worse case 2405 SPX .. buckle up :roll:

Re: 08/24/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:50 am
by Cobra
let's see if bulls can make 100% mm too.

Re: 08/24/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:56 am
by Trades with cats
I think we need a push from Jackson Hole to take out that 2400 level.

Based on today's quotes adding to the narrative that the FOMC does not care if the market drops (put on your tin foil hat for this) I still think they are quietly pressuring big money out of equities and into bonds. Three wins for FOMC if they do this. Equity drop puts pressure on Congress (good way to herd cats) for debt ceiling deal, helps fund government at the time they are reducing the Feds purchases and finally helps the US treasury with tax receipts as funds take profits from this bull market. :o

Re: 08/24/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:58 am
by brokebybernacke2
Trades with cats wrote:I think we need a push from Jackson Hole to take out that 2400 level.

Based on today's quotes adding to the narrative that the FOMC does not care if the market drops (put on your tin foil hat for this) I still think they are quietly pressuring big money out of equities and into bonds. Three wins for FOMC if they do this. Equity drop puts pressure on Congress (good way to herd cats) for debt ceiling deal, helps fund government at the time they are reducing the Feds purchases and finally helps the US treasury with tax receipts as funds take profits from this bull market. :o


dunno, tough to bet against the bankers, feels bear trappy...

Re: 08/24/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:14 pm
by fehro
brokebybernacke2 wrote:
Trades with cats wrote:I think we need a push from Jackson Hole to take out that 2400 level.

Based on today's quotes adding to the narrative that the FOMC does not care if the market drops (put on your tin foil hat for this) I still think they are quietly pressuring big money out of equities and into bonds. Three wins for FOMC if they do this. Equity drop puts pressure on Congress (good way to herd cats) for debt ceiling deal, helps fund government at the time they are reducing the Feds purchases and finally helps the US treasury with tax receipts as funds take profits from this bull market. :o


dunno, tough to bet against the bankers, feels bear trappy...


feels like someone is testing the lower limits.. with shocking drops.. to see where support is… .. feels like a VERY big drop could be close… fwiw :roll: RUT/WIM still near HOD, and green!

Re: 08/24/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:22 pm
by brokebybernacke2
fehro wrote:
brokebybernacke2 wrote:
Trades with cats wrote:I think we need a push from Jackson Hole to take out that 2400 level.

Based on today's quotes adding to the narrative that the FOMC does not care if the market drops (put on your tin foil hat for this) I still think they are quietly pressuring big money out of equities and into bonds. Three wins for FOMC if they do this. Equity drop puts pressure on Congress (good way to herd cats) for debt ceiling deal, helps fund government at the time they are reducing the Feds purchases and finally helps the US treasury with tax receipts as funds take profits from this bull market. :o


dunno, tough to bet against the bankers, feels bear trappy...


feels like someone is testing the lower limits.. with shocking drops.. to see where support is… .. feels like a VERY big drop could be close… fwiw :roll: RUT/WIM still near HOD, and green!


agreed, agreed. just those damn central bankers....could pop up 20 pts too...watchin close..2438 seems like the level to watch

Re: 08/24/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:23 pm
by fehro
NDX at 50d right here… COMPQ/SPX <50d SMA… /CL USO pushing lower to possible 50d

Re: 08/24/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:27 pm
by fehro
And as the following chart from Bank of America shows, the S&P put skew is now at the highest level on record, making the relative price of tail hedges the highest in 13 years as traders are quietly bracing for a sharp market crash.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-24/cost-market-crash-insurance-just-hit-record-high

Re: 08/24/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:52 pm
by Al_Dente
fehro wrote: And as the following chart from Bank of America shows, the S&P put skew is now at the highest level on record, making the relative price of tail hedges the highest in 13 years as traders are quietly bracing for a sharp market crash.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-24/cost-market-crash-insurance-just-hit-record-high

Boss: I saw that and am skeptical of BofA data “Price Ratio of 35-delta and ATM S&P 500 Put”
$SKEW on stockcharts shows it is off from its 3/13/17 ATH of 154.34
Last night it was 129.98
They’re buying OTM puts, but not “extreme” yet....

Re: 08/24/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:52 pm
by brokebybernacke2
[quote="fehro"] And as the following chart from Bank of America shows, the S&P put skew is now at the highest level on record, making the relative price of tail hedges the highest in 13 years as traders are quietly bracing for a sharp market crash.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-24/cost-market-crash-insurance-just-hit-record-high[/quot

charts do like a bit like aug 16/17 prior to last good down move..

Re: 08/24/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:57 pm
by Al_Dente
Speaking of options, the INVERTED $VXN shows options traders went bear on QQQ
60min
824vxn qqq.png.png

Re: 08/24/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:18 pm
by Al_Dente
RENKO is always hinky but it prints bricks only when IWM moves, and ignores the endless sideways action
It shows four+ higher lows and a double top, so it should flip “soon,” but to paraphrase Al Brooks: “There ain’t no breakdown until there’s a breakdown.”
2 minute chart
824renko iwm 2m.png.png

Re: 08/24/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:22 pm
by Cobra
exceeded 100% mm, bulls might have won for today.

Re: 08/24/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:39 pm
by Trades with cats
Bear on QQQ with Amazon having a down day and the bad news about Apple TV. Worse for Apple the Samsung gigantic note is fixed and back on the market. Oh I almost forgot the media reports that the Junior High set says Facebook is for their grandparents. Then we had Tesla bonds trading at same rate as Ukraine Govees, can't be a good week for the FAANG and friends crowd. Stockboard Assets keeps posting his Biotech index triangle of death, anyway I made my point if this sucker is going down the tech area is going down the fastest and the furthest, or at least it usually does. Also has the best bounces!

Re: 08/24/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:49 pm
by Trades with cats
ES 09-17 (1000 Tick)  8_24_2017B.jpg

If you like magic numbers notice how R1 resistance and yesterday's VWAP seem to control the market today. The red line in the cheep volume profile I am using is essentially VWAP but for some reason the volume profile people call it point of control. What ever you call it, it is the $ balance point and clearly yesterday's was important.

Re: 08/24/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:02 pm
by Al_Dente
Al_Dente wrote:Speaking of options, the INVERTED $VXN shows options traders went bear on QQQ
60min

CANCEL THAT

Re: 08/24/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:04 pm
by Trades with cats
And the Houston Ship Canal is closed for outbound travel. Next weeks inventory reports could be very interesting for the algos.

Re: 08/24/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:11 pm
by user13
Trades with cats wrote:And the Houston Ship Canal is closed for outbound travel. Next weeks inventory reports could be very interesting for the algos.



Because of the storm? Do you have a link for this?

Re: 08/24/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:16 pm
by Trades with cats
Just twitter, it was announced by the Canal Pilots. I assume they have a web site. Also the refinery closing notices are coming in fast and furious. It may have been 2008 the last time they got hit but their memories are good.