Cobra's Market View

te_fern wrote:The volatility in Gold that Daniel was referring to....

Yup. Thanks for posting this excellent graphic. I believe in ballroom dancing this is referred to as "jittery jitterbugging".

15min timeframe, SPY is the very definition of mid-rangeness.

20, 50, 200 MAs all converging, and price right in their midst. SPY 244.50--75 can be defined as The Thicket. All thorns and briars and patches of chart crisscrossed many times by price.

Often, this kind of action, and this middle position in a triangle, calls for oscillator indicators over momo ones.

not sure if this bear has legs as so far looks like a range day which means neither bull nor bear has legs.

XLF lod
IYT/Dow Transports showing that oversold kick we were warning about yest. IYT up well over 1% at its hod earlier.

could rebound all the way to the range top.

From the Wall Street Journal's MarketWatch website-
"Lena Komileva of G-Plus Economics, anticipating that Draghi also won’t rattle markets, says central bankers have agreed a “coordinated silence.”

Clearly there is a real fear of “stressing” market conditions ahead of the key quantitative tightening messages in the pipeline from the Fed in September and from the ECB, probably gradually over the rest of the year.

With market rates drifting lower as central bank heads remain tight-lipped over the summer, weighed down by the gravity of excess liquidity and the hunt for yield in a low-volatility environment, the pressure lies overwhelmingly on forthcoming policy announcements in September to guide market direction for the rest of the year. This means several critical months for the markets ahead."

Trades with cats wrote:From the Wall Street Journal's MarketWatch website-Lena Komileva of G-Plus Economics:

"......weighed down by the gravity of excess liquidity...."

Actually, a more accurate description than rates being weighed down is to say that bond prices have been floating on, and buoyed up by, excess liquidity. But other than that what she said makes sense-- and is something we've been noting on this Board. High liquidity levels help keep bids under multiple markets.

Oil- I have been pounding the table that article after article talks about the huge amount of drilled but not connected wells, DUC's. Here is a piece of ignorant propaganda from the evil site that is semi pointless. Don't know if it was written by Dumb or Dumber. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-2 ... -rig-count and I really don't know it's purpose except to keep people from going long, not saying long is a good idea. I am more clueless than usual right now on CL as the disaster hits.

I would bet that the big boys are buying gasoline cargos in mid ocean with a third of US refining either shutting down or thinking about it. The refiners will be sure to use this to jam up prices going into Labor Day. Then when everybody is running again, well anyone want to bet that they don't overproduce?

Sorry, I can't seem to get the times right. ECB President Draghi speaks at 1 Mountain or 3 Eastern time. So an hour and a half of nothing, then who knows for sure. With the experts calling for Chair Yellen's speech to be a nothingburger we certainly got some movement so we will see.

Is this a seasonal trend or is this a significant risk of breakdown?

Small Caps futures making a move on the day's high.

map showing hurricane proximity to oil refineries
http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rn ... HARVEY.png

Stuart Varney Fox Business Channel reruns from the net, interviewing a texas based oil analyst (stranded in New York).
Corpus Christi area shut downs about 3% of national refining, wholesale gas up 15 cents already.
Houston area is 13% of capacity. If it floods extensively and damages equipment some refiners could be down for a couple of months. Also flooding will cut off electricity slowing the restart of undamaged facilities.
Pipelines from Huston send gasoline all over the south east so if their pumps are damaged they could be affected.
Others are saying flooding inland could shut down shale operators in the Eagle Ford and Permian basins for as long as a couple of months. Some operators are already evacuating non-critical personnel to higher ground.

When trading opens on Sunday night there could be some big moves, certainly higher than normal volume. Or we could get lucky and the forecasters could be wrong, but I kinda doubt that.

Second shoe dropped at 3 Eastern. http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5

well, guess that's it for today. Monday has been mostly bull friendly. thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

please don't forget our weekly sentiment poll which will be posted right after the close.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

Daniel wrote:15min timeframe, SPY is the very definition of mid-rangeness.

20, 50, 200 MAs all converging, and price right in their midst. SPY 244.50--75 can be defined as The Thicket. All thorns and briars and patches of chart crisscrossed many times by price.

Often, this kind of action, and this middle position in a triangle, calls for oscillator indicators over momo ones.

My word. SPY closed right in this range. The final 5min bar spanned it, top to bottom. Closed around 244.60.

This ETF is staunchly mid-range.

GLTA

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