08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

[lilitulip]

no good, this could mean there's at least one more try on the downside today after a rebound if any. what is wrong with this market?

this weekly bar looks like Oct 6 2008, but at least that one has a tail...

[JJS612]

Cobra, What is the exact target of the H&S pattern on SPY, you mentioned yearlier Nov 2010 low which is around 117.5 but it seems like the target is lower?

It may be that if 1175 falls, selling will pick up.

[barbaragull]

no good, this could mean there's at least one more try on the downside today after a rebound if any. what is wrong with this market?

I guess institutions got way too huge profit in the past two years, now they are taking profit. So yesterday's huge sell off was done orderly, not panic

[newbie_77]

hi cobra,
1222-1177 = 45 pts range
does that seem enough for the day
i am not sure why we stopped @ 1178 ... i thought the next stop is @1173/1170 range....

[Cobra]

Cobra,

what do you think of DOW theory, worthless for a day trader as it discounts minor trends, however, for intermediate time frame/401k money I believe there was a DT sell signal yesterday and it follows the DT sell rules rather than a basic non-confirmation

what do you think

sorry if this posts twice, still getting used to the forum

Check my public chart list, the last chart begin with 4.x.x, TSX long-term trading signals (apply to SPX as well) use that to guide your long term investment (attention, I said "guide", it's not an investment advises). I'll explain the chart in details later but you can see it now. I thought to publicly announce this chart long time ago, just, forgot to do so, guess a little late now. It's for long-term, really really really long term as it's monthly chart.

[newbie_77]

oops i was too early... next stop 1148 ..... i wish i was short

[Mr. BachNut]

Detcting some buying as well as some dumping (probably margin calls).

Bought some PFF. Down 3%+ and well below November lows. Yielding 7.2%.
If banking system collapses next week, it will be a bad idea.

I hedged my position. This is nuts.

[agnosia]

holy crap! stopped out of 1170 long. lost 1 point. i am no longer trying support buys. this market is broken.

[hdenandy]

I have the H&S bottom as around 1170 on the SPX.
I believe we're just about there.

Trying again - bought the Dow at 11162 at £10 per point.

[Anaconda]

Which way will she go? I'm thinking bear flag. Liquidation continues. Precious metals sell...

chart.png (7.44 KiB) Viewed 4144 times

[barbaragull]

FT, I will hold my VIXY tight now. (Sold about 70% at so low price....)

[STC]

Cobra, What is the exact target of the H&S pattern on SPY, you mentioned yearlier Nov 2010 low which is around 117.5 but it seems like the target is lower?

see tinted area. I know I cannot simply use tinted area to do the measure on log chart, but should be close enough. H&S Top has only 55% chances to reach the text book target, so normally, I won't expect it to reach the target, the Nov 2010 lows should be it.

Cobra, SPY just reached 116.87, do you think that the H&S pattern is completed now? Should we expect a decent bounce for the next week or 2?

[agnosia]

oops i was too early... next stop 1148 ..... i wish i was short

same here but it's so hard to get short a market this OVERSOLD.... i bet the bears are also missing some of this move.

[fuddleduddle]

If we close today with this sort of momentum, Monday is likely another bloodbath... liquidation selling right now as we saw oil take a sudden tumble just awhile ago.. and now the PMs are selling off intensely.

So.. today and Monday are bloodbaths setting up for Jackson Hole?
50% of me thinks QE3 announced, 50% of me thinks no, not yet.

[Anaconda]

Covered 75% of my short positions at SPX 1175. May go as low as 1150. But playing for a Monday bounce.
GL and good weekend.

[Cobra]

target reached, overshot, volume surge, hopefully a rebound of some kind here then should be another leg down at least judging by the selling strength.

[quientuves]

BUt... were is my pullback??

[proteus46]

very close to 61.8 FIB....hope it can hold. I'd love to short the VIX now, don't know if I can wait till the close.

[Cobra]

Cobra, What is the exact target of the H&S pattern on SPY, you mentioned yearlier Nov 2010 low which is around 117.5 but it seems like the target is lower?

see tinted area. I know I cannot simply use tinted area to do the measure on log chart, but should be close enough. H&S Top has only 55% chances to reach the text book target, so normally, I won't expect it to reach the target, the Nov 2010 lows should be it.

Cobra, SPY just reached 116.87, do you think that the H&S pattern is completed now? Should we expect a decent bounce for the next week or 2?

Reach target doesn't mean the end of the selling.

[davros]

GC - gold, is off 0.3% as of now, not too shabby