Back to www.cobrasmarketview.com

   

08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Re: 08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby 99er » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:31 am

User avatar
99er
 
Posts: 3686
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2011 3:43 pm

Re: 08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby STC » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:33 am

Cobra, What is the exact target of the H&S pattern on SPY, you mentioned yearlier Nov 2010 low which is around 117.5 but it seems like the target is lower?
STC
 
Posts: 38
Joined: Tue Apr 26, 2011 1:53 pm

Re: 08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby 99er » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:35 am

User avatar
99er
 
Posts: 3686
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2011 3:43 pm

Re: 08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Ninja Trader » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:37 am

STC wrote:Cobra, What is the exact target of the H&S pattern on SPY, you mentioned yearlier Nov 2010 low which is around 117.5 but it seems like the target is lower?



most technical analysis texts tell you that measuring from head to neckline and applying to the break of the neckline is the minimum target for the head and shoulders.
Ninja Trader
 
Posts: 48
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:39 am

Re: 08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Cobra » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:38 am

STC wrote:Cobra, What is the exact target of the H&S pattern on SPY, you mentioned yearlier Nov 2010 low which is around 117.5 but it seems like the target is lower?


see tinted area. I know I cannot simply use tinted area to do the measure on log chart, but should be close enough. H&S Top has only 55% chances to reach the text book target, so normally, I won't expect it to reach the target, the Nov 2010 lows should be it.
Attachments
1.png

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
 
Posts: 46731
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby 99er » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:39 am

User avatar
99er
 
Posts: 3686
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2011 3:43 pm

Re: 08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby cougar » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:41 am

SPX: I am sticking to my previously published EW count. Although (according to bona fide EW technicians) my count is “simplistic”, it seems to work. Going down on w3 of W3 is supposed to be very bearish.
Harmonic extensions = targets for w3 (yellow) of W3 (purple).
Attachments
EXTENgif.GIF
cougar
 
Posts: 1914
Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 9:25 am

Re: 08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby uempel » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:41 am

A quick look at the NYSE stocks above the 200 DMA:
200MAWeekly.png
uempel
 
Posts: 8685
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 6:38 am

Re: 08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Mr. BachNut » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:43 am

Cobra wrote:
STC wrote:Cobra, What is the exact target of the H&S pattern on SPY, you mentioned yearlier Nov 2010 low which is around 117.5 but it seems like the target is lower?


see tinted area. I know I cannot simply use tinted area to do the measure on log chart, but should be close enough. H&S Top has only 55% chances to reach the text book target, so normally, I won't expect it to reach the target, the Nov 2010 lows should be it.


Well we're less than 1 SPY point from the November lows now.
User avatar
Mr. BachNut
 
Posts: 2483
Joined: Thu Feb 24, 2011 2:28 pm

Re: 08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby lilitulip » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:43 am



copper is lagging this time, strange
lilitulip
 
Posts: 71
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2011 10:37 am

Re: 08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby trust_yr_instinct » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:45 am

following the 2007 template....possible scenario..

in 2007 the august selloff ended at the 2006 oct close level ( most big funds have their performance and portfolios number based on october close ) if that holds true, we are RIGHT now at the oct 2010 close level and funds are break even on their oct to oct year end...any fall from here 1180 ish...and they go negative yr over yr and things get bad...BUT they MAY be motivated ( probably next week tho ) to get things rolling up so they are not flat...

but like Cobra says, its a feeling I have based on the greed of fund managers to perform and NOT in the charts..( even tho we are crazy maximum oversold now on ALL indicators ) trade what you SEE not feel...but interesting, we shall see how this plays out

biggest concern is they havent shot the generals yet...AAPL AMZN GOOG CRM CMG ISRG they all need to be shot before a true bottom can be in
trust_yr_instinct
 
Posts: 21
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2011 4:34 pm

Re: 08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Mr. BachNut » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:47 am

Detcting some buying as well as some dumping (probably margin calls).

Bought some PFF. Down 3%+ and well below November lows. Yielding 7.2%.
If banking system collapses next week, it will be a bad idea. :roll:
User avatar
Mr. BachNut
 
Posts: 2483
Joined: Thu Feb 24, 2011 2:28 pm

Re: 08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby trust_yr_instinct » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:49 am

ok this is getting SCARY!!! EVERYONE LOOKING FOR A BOUNCE HERE...BUT crashes come from these kind of set ups...and from oversold levels NOT at highs...and its a summer friday...wow....
we are now at 2010 oct closing level for funds, and almost at the HS pattern Cobra talked about as a target...1175 area 1180 area..we BETTER bouce here
trust_yr_instinct
 
Posts: 21
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2011 4:34 pm

Re: 08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Cobra » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:49 am

no good, this could mean there's at least one more try on the downside today after a rebound if any. what is wrong with this market? :o
Attachments
1.png

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
 
Posts: 46731
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby agnosia » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:49 am

vix another new high. i got a buy order for /es @ 1172-70 zone.
agnosia
 
Posts: 1491
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2011 10:59 am

Re: 08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby barbaragull » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:52 am

Gees, either buy or sell, I always do it too early
barbaragull
 
Posts: 106
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2011 9:19 am

Re: 08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Ninja Trader » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:53 am

Cobra,

what do you think of DOW theory, worthless for a day trader as it discounts minor trends, however, for intermediate time frame/401k money I believe there was a DT sell signal yesterday and it follows the DT sell rules rather than a basic non-confirmation

what do you think

sorry if this posts twice, still getting used to the forum
Ninja Trader
 
Posts: 48
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:39 am

Re: 08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby hatt60ft » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:53 am

look at the BDI baltic dry index that cobra shows on page 4 of his stockcharts

and then you can see there is no underlying reason for the bull market since march 2009 other than the printing of money and the actions of the plunge protection team

so this has all been a house of cards

and no house of cards can stand forever.....so days like this have just been a matter of time

all that money printing has done very little to get the real economy going

all it has done has boosted financial assets....which has saved us for a while.....but in the end will make things much worse
hatt60ft
 
Posts: 2
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2011 2:42 pm

Re: 08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby shumushu » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:54 am

stopped out =\
User avatar
shumushu
 
Posts: 315
Joined: Thu Feb 17, 2011 1:09 pm

Re: 08/05/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby agnosia » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:55 am

Cobra wrote:no good, this could mean there's at least one more try on the downside today after a rebound if any. what is wrong with this market? :o


it's all about the banks and the s&p downgrade tonight i think. take a look at BAC, which is a big part of the market. down 8%+
agnosia
 
Posts: 1491
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2011 10:59 am

PreviousNext

Return to Traders Lounge

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 34 guests