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Whatever it is, my crystal ball now floating with the number 123 what is that???? that's 5$ more? no way....Cobra wrote:now it looks more and more like Ascending Triangle or a little worse case, Rectangle.
rhight wrote:I'm a swing (preferably position) trader, and so, if you are a day trader then our decisions may not match up. A few things to notice on the chart : TICK has been in an uptrend since 8/8, through the potential bottom. Yesterday, when you placed a short, TRIN was bullish and TICK was trending bullish. This combo I will not short. Notice the extremely high positive TICKs on 8/10 and 8/11, with negative TICK "only" reaching -1000 (it's all relative!). I interpreted this as "smart money" being put back to work. The red box is a statistical time & price window for an expected 60 min. cycle high based on the last 6 cycles measured with a 0.75 zig-zag filter. When price went clear through it (although it did hiccup on the way through) I interpret this as bullish. The blue box is the next expected 60 min. cycle low. From experience, if this is a new intermediate bull trend, then price may not touch it. The 50 DMA made a bear cross of the 200 DMA yesterday that may have long term implications, but the 200 DMA was rising, and is now flat, and price may have a chance at re-testing that area before a longer term down trend ensues. I'm including a chart of one indicator that supposedly has a good track record and has not triggered since March 2009 (see bottom of chart.) The idea comes from "Technical Analysis" Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist page 147. It triggered several times during the 2008 decline. The present May-August time may have a rough parallel to the 10/2007 to 01/2008 period, and so I'm cautiously long.soku wrote:we may have diff opinion, but i still like your chart. it explained 2 of my failed trades yesterday.rhight wrote:Good morning Cobra and all,
Been on vacation. Entered a long position yesterday for a swing trade. Stop is below 1118. Hope to hold for a week or two.
i think it will not break out the H-line around 1150, so i shorted and got stopped out. then i had another bet in the red box, betting for a back test of the break out. apparently the bo is strong and legitimate, and i have to say i didn't give full respect of.
rhight wrote:I'm a swing (preferably position) trader, and so, if you are a day trader then our decisions may not match up. A few things to notice on the chart : TICK has been in an uptrend since 8/8, through the potential bottom. Yesterday, when you placed a short, TRIN was bullish and TICK was trending bullish. This combo I will not short. Notice the extremely high positive TICKs on 8/10 and 8/11, with negative TICK "only" reaching -1000 (it's all relative!). I interpreted this as "smart money" being put back to work. The red box is a statistical time & price window for an expected 60 min. cycle high based on the last 6 cycles measured with a 0.75 zig-zag filter. When price went clear through it (although it did hiccup on the way through) I interpret this as bullish. The blue box is the next expected 60 min. cycle low. From experience, if this is a new intermediate bull trend, then price may not touch it. The 50 DMA made a bear cross of the 200 DMA yesterday that may have long term implications, but the 200 DMA was rising, and is now flat, and price may have a chance at re-testing that area before a longer term down trend ensues. I'm including a chart of one indicator that supposedly has a good track record and has not triggered since March 2009 (see bottom of chart.) The idea comes from "Technical Analysis" Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist page 147. It triggered several times during the 2008 decline. The present May-August time may have a rough parallel to the 10/2007 to 01/2008 period, and so I'm cautiously long.soku wrote:we may have diff opinion, but i still like your chart. it explained 2 of my failed trades yesterday.rhight wrote:Good morning Cobra and all,
Been on vacation. Entered a long position yesterday for a swing trade. Stop is below 1118. Hope to hold for a week or two.
i think it will not break out the H-line around 1150, so i shorted and got stopped out. then i had another bet in the red box, betting for a back test of the break out. apparently the bo is strong and legitimate, and i have to say i didn't give full respect of.
BullBear: I show the top of the gap at 119.80 ish. Gap NOT filled yet. Failed twice today. Also corresponds to Cobra's resistance at the 200sma on the 15 min chartBullBear52x wrote:here is the gap resistance I'm referring to, bulls must do it here or I will switch side
When we all agreed, that's when I worry the most.Al_Dente wrote:BullBear: I show the top of the gap at 119.80 ish. Gap NOT filled yet. Failed twice today. Also corresponds to Cobra's resistance at the 200sma on the 15 min chartBullBear52x wrote:here is the gap resistance I'm referring to, bulls must do it here or I will switch side
rhight wrote:Yes, $NYHL:$NYTOT is the chart. I call it a "Bottom Detector" just to slap myself in the face, since I've missed so many good bottoms, if you know what I mean. Anyways, the Ned Davis data set is from 1966 to 2005, the chart is labeled "New Highs Minus New Lows / Issues Traded -- Five Day Smoothing" in which they label this zone "So Bad It's Good". The text reads, "It shows a particularly strong positive result when the ratio declines to below -13.8%. Otherwise, the results are mixed."varaamo wrote:rhight,
Can u please verify this.
When you are are referring to the bottom indicator, is it the $NYHL:$NYTOT chart?
Thanks,
rhight wrote:soku wrote:rhight wrote:Good morning Cobra and all,
Been on vacation. Entered a long position yesterday for a swing trade. Stop is below 1118. Hope to hold for a week or two.
I'm including a chart of one indicator that supposedly has a good track record and has not triggered since March 2009 (see bottom of chart.) The idea comes from "Technical Analysis" Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist page 147. It triggered several times during the 2008 decline. The present May-August time may have a rough parallel to the 10/2007 to 01/2008 period, and so I'm cautiously long.