08/12/2011 Intraday Watering

[BullBear52x]

TICK TOCK TICK TOCK 120 here we come.

[grachu]

hey cobra. thanks for everything .,. you are cool .

[vats]

Re: 08/12/2011 Intraday Watering

Unread postby ccash04 » Fri Aug 12, 2011 8:05 am

lazytrader wrote:

Cobra wrote:

vats wrote:Hi Cobra and all the participants,
I am a newbie ..I have put and a call in silver for september at diffrent strikes. question is, why are both puts and calls down? for all the months and strikes??
appreciate your insight! thanks



I don't trade options, so no expert here. My guess is because IV is down.




It is because of theta...time decay and as Cobra mentioned IV could be down..




They are september calls and puts so theta is negligible, its pure a function of IV or implied volatility going down. Since the volatility jumped a lot in the past 8 days and the movement is not as big as volatility implies it will lose value relative to the previous implied vol.

In order to offset this use spreads, whether it be vertical or calendar or a combination of both. At such high vol. you want to have some exposure to short vol. in order to help alleviate the risk of vol. falling while still taking advantage of price movements."

"besides why would you want to have hold silver puts we all know its going to 70 once QE3 gets announced later this month "

Thanks all, now I understand it better. The reason for put is to protect my physical holdings. Hope, silver goes to 70 or 100, that is the reason for calls.

I am sorry, I should have used " quote " feature!

[oldpigwang]

Cobra Da : you mean up trend target 120?

[BullBear52x]

Intraday line in the sand, so long SPY trades above 200ma 1min. Bulls may enjoy another beer or wine.

[rpccharts]

1177 is weekly 200ma - they will close higher on lite vol.. let em pop to 1194/1200... som say 1250 - I doubt it before run bak to 1100

[StrikePrice]

important correction here. Who will win? I shorted into yesterday's selling near close so i'm bias.

[muktuk]

Wow! I am learning alot...thank you to Cobra and all the contributors.
I am new to TA and have a question about time frames on charts that I am confused about. There are many time frame charts shown and discussed with seemingly different patterns on the different time frames...H&S here, triangle there, etc.
Could someone assist me with how I can interpret the differences?
Thanks!!!

[newbie_77]

cobra,
2nd test of morning high 119.19 . is that the test of the HOD ? or the resistance?

[shumushu]

Wow! I am learning alot...thank you to Cobra and all the contributors.
I am new to TA and have a question about time frames on charts that I am confused about. There are many time frame charts shown and discussed with seemingly different patterns on the different time frames...H&S here, triangle there, etc.
Could someone assist me with how I can interpret the differences?
Thanks!!!

It maybe confusing for you if you don't know which timeframe you trade in. I use the 5minute time-frame to trade while I use 30minute timeframe to establish market biasing about up and down.

[Cobra]

Cobra Da : you mean up trend target 120?

Don't understand your question. It's just a text book target, I don't care whether the market will be there or not, I just provide info here.

[StrikePrice]

Wow! I am learning alot...thank you to Cobra and all the contributors.
I am new to TA and have a question about time frames on charts that I am confused about. There are many time frame charts shown and discussed with seemingly different patterns on the different time frames...H&S here, triangle there, etc.
Could someone assist me with how I can interpret the differences?
Thanks!!!

Time Frame is your choice. You want to hold for 5 days. Use hourly and daily charts. Day Trading? I-minute, 5-minute, 15-minute. Read about Elder's Triple Screen system. I like his ideas on that.

[Cobra]

cobra,
2nd test of morning high 119.19 . is that the test of the HOD ? or the resistance?

Could turn into Ascending Triangle. Let's see.

[BullBear52x]

Wow! I am learning alot...thank you to Cobra and all the contributors.
I am new to TA and have a question about time frames on charts that I am confused about. There are many time frame charts shown and discussed with seemingly different patterns on the different time frames...H&S here, triangle there, etc.
Could someone assist me with how I can interpret the differences?
Thanks!!!

I would say experience will be best to explain what time frame is best to fit one individual. some like it fast some like it slow, what's best time period is only individual trader can tell on him/herself. what is best comfort time frame and a draw down associate with it. the pain limit one individual can handle comfortably. this may not say much but it's been one tough subject on traders talk.

[soku]

The red box is a statistical time & price window for an expected 60 min. cycle high based on the last 6 cycles measured with a 0.75 zig-zag filter. When price went clear through it (although it did hiccup on the way through) I interpret this as bullish. The blue box is the next expected 60 min. cycle low. From experience, if this is a new intermediate bull trend, then price may not touch it.
The 50 DMA made a bear cross of the 200 DMA yesterday that may have long term implications, but the 200 DMA was rising, and is now flat, and price may have a chance at re-testing that area before a longer term down trend ensues.
I'm including a chart of one indicator that supposedly has a good track record and has not triggered since March 2009 (see bottom of chart.) The idea comes from "Technical Analysis" Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist page 147. It triggered several times during the 2008 decline. The present May-August time may have a rough parallel to the 10/2007 to 01/2008 period, and so I'm cautiously long.

man i am sitting in my beach house drinking beer and waiting for the passing shower to pass, so i can go back to do my bird watching business. you ruin it by dumping so many things one me!
1. this further explains why we have similar chart. i am using some diff parameters but in general i am using triple zigzag to measure possible cycle change. the problem with zz is the last one will not be fixed until a reversal comes. it is a big hit to my day trading business. i am using other ways to get better signal. only works on short timeframe so far.
2. 200ma is lagging, which is not new. in fact 200sma peaked on 8/5, and totally ignored the crash since 7/27. simple math, it we stay here at 1180, 200ma will keep on dropping until meet the spot. it is very far away from what we are now. at this moment i think i want to respect the dead cross of 50 and 200.
3. do u have pdf? as i mentioned i always want to improve my swing skills.

[General doofus]

S&P stock correlations at 84% are near all-time high -- around levels seen during 1987 crash, spring 2009, and summer 2010. All eventually resulted in very strong rallies.

[soku]

this is damn boring. maybe a b-o, but again i don't like it. if it takes out 1181 but failed at 1186 area, this could be a tradable pattern. my target is around 1173-1174 area.

It has to take out 1186 to go higher.I may stay in if it does.Lets see.

so far so good. my target remains at 73-74.
another alternative to yr longs may be covered calls.

[uempel]

I'm really tired so I'm not going to join the conversation - time for a jog and a slow weekend. I've got 66% longs and 33% shorts and I'm quite happy like this. Chart shows what happened at the top in April 2000 and June 2008. I'll be watching MA 377 (now at 1210) very carefully next week if SPX climbs that far. Bye guys

[uempel]

Me trading...

http://www.collegehumor.com/video/64772 ... everything

[Cobra]

now it looks more and more like Ascending Triangle or a little worse case, Rectangle.