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10/18/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:23 am
by Cobra
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renewed up strength,wow. however my guess is still down in the moring then up and up the rest of the day, overall boring day with small up.

Re: 10/18/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:26 am
by Cobra

Re: 10/18/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:04 am
by Cobra

Re: 10/18/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:21 am
by Trades with cats
Overnight gap has closed. But while ADX is bear it is still weak and that overnight move was not exactly on large volume.

Best thing I have heard today is with all the negative outlooks about the market we still need to trade the facts of what is in front of us right now. Of course I will continue to read every flip of the tarot cards on the future of Central Bank policy but I am going to put "Trade what is in front of you " on my wall.

Re: 10/18/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:24 am
by fehro
INDU.. nice gap.. thanks IBM :) pretty exhaustion gap for the bears.. abandoned baby… :roll: .. a giant "IF" :roll: :lol:

Re: 10/18/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:32 am
by Trades with cats
ES 12-17 (1000 Tick)  10_18_2017.jpg
Annotated ES

Re: 10/18/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:03 am
by Trades with cats
Oil- reports are out today and it is rather messy. Nate shut down Gulf platforms causing a really big drop in oil production. Refineries and blenders were back at flat out making as much product as they could. Product supplied (not sure what that means) dropped to the bottom of the 5 year average as the market price system allocated a temporarily scarce commodity by running up prices. Yes consumers do respond even though the professors claim gas should be relatively inelastic demand.

Bottom line we are slowly returning to normal. Hedge funds and others thinking this summer storm season is the start of longer term higher prices and listening to the Saudi news agencies. Give this a couple of weeks to stabilize before reaching any longer term trend guesses. :D

Re: 10/18/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:42 am
by daytradingES

Re: 10/18/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:49 am
by Al_Dente
$INDU, the dow, is up +141 points intraday
IBM represents approximately 89 points of that rise
In the meantime, we are on day 2/3 of a declining tick and declining AD (cumulative)
5min
1018tick.png.png

Re: 10/18/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:59 am
by Trades with cats
oil production.jpg
DaytradingES thanks for the official numbers but they don't have the same impact as the visual aid :P

One of the really big challenges to oil and nat gas is the hurricane season. We haven't really had one for quite a few years so I am guessing there are a bunch of newer traders (our 'friends' the 28 year old Ivy League history majors) who have never seen this before.

Re: 10/18/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:04 pm
by Trades with cats
RTY 12-17 (15 Min)  10_18_2017.jpg
RTY Futs back in the box!

Re: 10/18/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:04 pm
by Mr. BachNut
Seems a little quiet here today.
The lack of vol makes it tough to have anything to say I guess.

Well, the NYMO cycle is down.
The last high was at the start of September.
Things went flat until the beginning of October and then down she has been going since.
Yesterday was the second close under zero, and we are making fresh lows this morning.

Pricewise, the gap year continues. We have a fresh crop of potential targets below as quotes have overnighted higher and higher.
We have been tracking above the upper keltner for some time.
Prices above the upper keltner and negative NYMOs don't mix.
A trip to the middle keltner is probable at this point, but when and from what level are open questions.
As usual, I don't have a clue.

I am flat. I was taken out of a long position in late September and have done nothing in equities since.
I am on watch for a setup to get me short.
I do wonder though about the possibility of things going parabolic in a blow-off to the upside.
The NYMO suggests a lot of stocks have had a lot of time to correct. An up cycle from here and price could go bananas.
Perhaps clarity comes after OPEX gets done.

Re: 10/18/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:09 pm
by Cobra

Re: 10/18/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:12 pm
by Al_Dente
IWM, TNA
HOD

Re: 10/18/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:14 pm
by Al_Dente
Trades with cats wrote:
RTY 12-17 (15 Min) 10_18_2017.jpg

hi cats
can u tell me the difference between RTY and TF
thanks :D

Re: 10/18/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:19 pm
by Cobra
possible double bottom.

Re: 10/18/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:27 pm
by Trades with cats
Al_Dente wrote:
Trades with cats wrote:
RTY 12-17 (15 Min) 10_18_2017.jpg

hi cats
can u tell me the difference between RTY and TF
thanks :D

Same thing. Russel has licensed the use of it's index to the CME/Globex folks. We are in the midst of (I think, but not sure) a 9 month transition where both are tradingf before the TF goes away. The big deal is the CME does not charge $80 a month for the data feed.

Small casp fun facts- No FANG stocks.

Re: 10/18/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:38 pm
by Trades with cats
IBM continues its track record with 23 consecutive quarters of declining sales. Once again beat estimates by reducing it's estimated income tax rate according to the Wall Street Journal's MarketWatch website. For a good look at financial engineering and the incentives for upper management all laid out with nice charts here is a look at McDonald's https://realinvestmentadvice.com/something-wicked-this-way-comes-mcdonalds-a-bear-in-a-bull-costume/

Until they fail and get kicked out of the indexes you will not be properly rewarded for being short as the market is now a socialist share and share a like with passive investing. Flip side is really good companies will not go up as much as they would have because they must drag the entire index with them as so much of the new money is allocated. Still a person can look at hedging and if your broker allows net exposure for calculating margin (like Interactive) you could probably leverage up to some really scary levels. :twisted:

Re: 10/18/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:01 pm
by Al_Dente
BEIGE BOOK released now

Re: 10/18/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:23 pm
by QED
Trades with cats wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:
Trades with cats wrote:
RTY 12-17 (15 Min) 10_18_2017.jpg

hi cats
can u tell me the difference between RTY and TF
thanks :D

Same thing. Russel has licensed the use of it's index to the CME/Globex folks. We are in the midst of (I think, but not sure) a 9 month transition where both are tradingf before the TF goes away. The big deal is the CME does not charge $80 a month for the data feed.

Small casp fun facts- No FANG stocks.

The Russell 2000 returned to CME Group July 10th, 2017. [/RTY]
It will continue to also be available on the ICE exchange until June 15th, 2018. [/TF]