Page 2 of 3

Re: 11/13/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:46 pm
by te_fern
SPX staying in the range....

Re: 11/13/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:47 pm
by te_fern
Al_Dente wrote:“Risk-On” and “Risk Off”
(An updated quickie view of the weekend’s post on “there is some evidence that ‘de-risking’ may be in progress”)
When the defensive “Risk-Off” sectors (all dashed lines) are strong, you will see them start to climb above the red zero line.
When the aggressive “Risk-On” sectors are strong, you will see them start to climb above the red zero line.
% performance, 5 min, 6 days (all last week plus today)

1113risk on off.png.png


Nice Chart AD, really shows the risk off trade....

Re: 11/13/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:53 pm
by Al_Dente
te_fern wrote:Nice Chart AD, really shows the risk off trade....

:D
ELSEWHERE:
REPOST: reminder, Almanac’s “typical” November
FYI today is the 9th trading day of the month
1113SAVEreminder nov.png.png

Re: 11/13/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:57 pm
by Cobra

Re: 11/13/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:06 pm
by Al_Dente
Here’s what bothers me about the “defensives”
They’ve been selling off bonds: treasurys, investment-grade bonds, junk... all bonds (red circles)
The defensive buying has occurred in reits, staples, utilities (green circles)

Surely Janet is watching this, because as she tapers the FEDs reinvestment in treasurys (as clearly stated), she was surely hoping for the world or “somebody” to pick up the slack and buy treasuries, to compensate for her $billion[?] shortfall in long treasurys
Am I wrong? Show me.

1113defensives.png

Re: 11/13/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:12 pm
by te_fern
SPX breaking up out of the channel...

Re: 11/13/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:14 pm
by te_fern
The NYSE ticks are trying to turn to support the breakout of the SPX, we'll see if its a head fake.... QQQs already running up..

Re: 11/13/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:25 pm
by Al_Dente
:o
HAS wants to buy MAT

Re: 11/13/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:27 pm
by Al_Dente
GE is holding back the dow
(cut dividend, old news this morn)

Re: 11/13/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:35 pm
by Trades with cats
Buying REITS and Utilities is a real question mark. Only thing I can think of is fund managers with their hands tied by investment committees that need some income but trust the FGed will be destroying bonds. As long as the move up is gradual (and that is certainly today's word) Utilities and REITs have a chance of improving themselves by raising rates, especially if their debt is mostly locked in at the long end.

Bonds and the S&P both dropping is these days considered a symptom of deleveraging by the equal risk Bridgewater type funds. They are at their core a bet on the Fed continuing to print and they have no hedging, so all they can do is increase or decrease their leverage.

Re: 11/13/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:36 pm
by Cobra
might still be another push up, if makes lower high only then bears finally have chances.

Re: 11/13/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:50 pm
by Al_Dente
Trades with cats wrote:Buying REITS and Utilities is a real question mark. Only thing I can think of is fund managers with their hands tied by investment committees that need some income but trust the FGed will be destroying bonds. As long as the move up is gradual (and that is certainly today's word) Utilities and REITs have a chance of improving themselves by raising rates, especially if their debt is mostly locked in at the long end.

Bonds and the S&P both dropping is these days considered a symptom of deleveraging by the equal risk Bridgewater type funds. They are at their core a bet on the Fed continuing to print and they have no hedging, so all they can do is increase or decrease their leverage.

:D

Re: 11/13/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:52 pm
by Al_Dente
Today is day five of IWM below the lower bollinger. Hasn’t done that all year (usually bounces after three).
Also below/testing the 50ma (purple ma).
Volume shows selling is drying up; but wait for the closing print
Possible double bottom or higher low today, but wait for the closing print
I want to continue the backtest of the breakout at the IWM 144 zone.
If we breakdown there, it would be bad. If this backtest can print a higher low above 144, and stick to it, that would be bullish.
In retrospect, a good “tell” for this move was the compression of the bb bands two weeks ago, the tightest bands of the year
…… which I noticed after the fact…. :roll:
Daily
1113iwm day.png.png

Re: 11/13/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:56 pm
by te_fern
Al_Dente wrote:
Trades with cats wrote:Buying REITS and Utilities is a real question mark. Only thing I can think of is fund managers with their hands tied by investment committees that need some income but trust the FGed will be destroying bonds. As long as the move up is gradual (and that is certainly today's word) Utilities and REITs have a chance of improving themselves by raising rates, especially if their debt is mostly locked in at the long end.

Bonds and the S&P both dropping is these days considered a symptom of deleveraging by the equal risk Bridgewater type funds. They are at their core a bet on the Fed continuing to print and they have no hedging, so all they can do is increase or decrease their leverage.

:D


and both REITs and Utilities can benefit from an improving economy....

Re: 11/13/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:06 pm
by Trades with cats
RTY 12-17 (300 Tick) 2017_11_13.png

Small Caps-
Working with upgraded platform. Fat Tails (Henry in Berlin, ( LIZARDINDICATORS.) has a new Keltner with lots of choices. So I am running the center line as a 20 period EMA with a 2 ATR band width. The big heavy dash dot is daily VWAP and I continue using Chandre Knoll version of a chandelier stop. Paint bar colors are tied to the Kaufman Efficiency indicator down below

I have two indicators in the same box at the bottom. A more advanced version of Perry Kaufman's efficiency which goes red and blue for buy sell and tan for chop. It has a built in algo that is supposed to adjust the cHop level automatically. The orange line is the average. Fat Tails says it is more reliable than the ADX so hey, why not. The green line with the red histogram is our old friend the True Strength Index but this one is triple smoothed. Of course Henry gives you about 30 or so averages to use for both indicators (and the Keltner) from Gaussian to Holt EMA's so you can fiddle with the settings for the rest of your life!

Re: 11/13/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:10 pm
by te_fern
Fell back into the range....

Re: 11/13/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:15 pm
by Al_Dente
te_fern wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:
Trades with cats wrote:Buying REITS and Utilities is a real question mark. Only thing I can think of is fund managers with their hands tied by investment committees that need some income but trust the FGed will be destroying bonds. As long as the move up is gradual (and that is certainly today's word) Utilities and REITs have a chance of improving themselves by raising rates, especially if their debt is mostly locked in at the long end.

Bonds and the S&P both dropping is these days considered a symptom of deleveraging by the equal risk Bridgewater type funds. They are at their core a bet on the Fed continuing to print and they have no hedging, so all they can do is increase or decrease their leverage.

:D


and both REITs and Utilities can benefit from an improving economy....

:D

Re: 11/13/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:16 pm
by te_fern
Trades with cats wrote:
RTY 12-17 (300 Tick) 2017_11_13.png

Small Caps-
Working with upgraded platform. Fat Tails (Henry in Berlin, ( LIZARDINDICATORS.) has a new Keltner with lots of choices. So I am running the center line as a 20 period EMA with a 2 ATR band width. The big heavy dash dot is daily VWAP and I continue using Chandre Knoll version of a chandelier stop. Paint bar colors are tied to the Kaufman Efficiency indicator down below

I have two indicators in the same box at the bottom. A more advanced version of Perry Kaufman's efficiency which goes red and blue for buy sell and tan for chop. It has a built in algo that is supposed to adjust the cHop level automatically. The orange line is the average. Fat Tails says it is more reliable than the ADX so hey, why not. The green line with the red histogram is our old friend the True Strength Index but this one is triple smoothed. Of course Henry gives you about 30 or so averages to use for both indicators (and the Keltner) from Gaussian to Holt EMA's so you can fiddle with the settings for the rest of your life!


TWC, is Ninjatrader free if you use their brokerage platform?

Re: 11/13/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:36 pm
by Trades with cats
RTY 12-17 (300 Tick) 2017_11_13C.png

More magic numbers, drops from the Pivot Point to exactly the S1 and bounces. These are standard floor traders pivots calculated from the cash (old open outcry) trading hours.

Re: 11/13/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:03 pm
by Cobra
new high means another push up before bears can have chances.