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Re: 11/29/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:50 pm
by Al_Dente
[Pasta here: Moral of that story: get your "protection" on]
meaning that if it happens at Fidelity on a blah day, it WILL happen at other firms....

Re: 11/29/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:53 pm
by Al_Dente
[SAVE FOR LATER]
here's an interesting one on trading chart patterns:
https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/ho ... t-patterns

Re: 11/29/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:54 pm
by Cobra
possible double top, rebound may have failed.

Re: 11/29/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:56 pm
by Al_Dente
Al_Dente wrote:Weak:
NY advancing stocks = 1.09 x declining stocks
NY advancing volume = 1.62 x declining volume

NY advancing stocks = 0.8 x declining stocks
NY advancing volume = 0.3 x declining volume

Re: 11/29/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:02 pm
by Trades with cats
Van Tharp talks about a trading business plan. He has a full section on disaster planning. Two brokerage accounts, an internet back-up (like tethering your cell phone) and having the brokerage phone numbers handy.

The big problem is if it gets truly ugly they will shut down the exchanges using the predetermined levels, like what happened election night a year ago.

Re: 11/29/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:06 pm
by Al_Dente
ONE MINUTE, FIVE DAYS
Just to compare spy (purple, top panel) and aapl (lime, bottom panel)

1129spy appl.png.png

Re: 11/29/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:11 pm
by Al_Dente
"McConnell says the Senate will vote later today on the Motion to Proceed to the GOP tax reform bill."

Re: 11/29/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:30 pm
by fehro
:roll: :lol: +290 points

Re: 11/29/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:41 pm
by fehro
BTC carnage..

Re: 11/29/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:45 pm
by Al_Dente
fehro wrote::roll: :lol: +290 points

Some big trans
wow dang, it's across the board :shock:
https://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Fav ... how&disp=f

Re: 11/29/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:47 pm
by fehro
Al_Dente wrote:
fehro wrote::roll: :lol: +290 points

Some big trans
wow dang, it's across the board :shock:
https://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Fav ... how&disp=f


yup using TRANSports.. to "hold" up the indexes..be very very careful.

Re: 11/29/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:53 pm
by Al_Dente
fehro wrote:yup using TRANSports.. to "hold" up the indexes..be very very careful.

ok boss, am awaiting your next "dabble" 8-) :geek: ;) :ugeek: :idea: :arrow:

Re: 11/29/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:58 pm
by tsf
Source:
https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2017/11/ ... l-the-vix/

Image

There are a lot of models for the Cboe’s VIX. None of them are particularly good at predicting what the VIX will do tomorrow but they can be useful in predicting general behaviors of the VIX. The most popular model for the VIX (although people might not recognize it as a model) is simple mean reversion.

Simple Mean Reversion

Car gas mileage is a good example of a simple mean reverting process.

Over time your car’s gas mileage will exhibit an average value, e.g., 28 miles per gallon. You don’t expect to get the same mileage with every tank because you know that there are factors that make a difference with your mileage (e.g., city vs highway driving, tire air pressure, and wind direction) but over time you expect your mileage to cluster around that average value. If you get 32 miles per gallon on one tank of gas you reasonably expect that next time you check it will likely be closer to 28. If the values start varying significantly from the average you start wondering if something has changed with the car itself (e.g., needs a tune-up)

A mean-reverting random walk is a relatively simple model and fits some of the basic behaviors of the VIX. Specifically, over time the mean value of the VIX has stayed stable at around 20 and the VIX exhibits range bound behavior—with all-time lows around 9 and all-time highs around 80.

However, there are many aspects of the VIX that aren’t well explained by a simple mean-reverting model. For example, a simple mean reverting process will have its mode value (the most frequently occurring values) close to its mean. This is not the case of the VIX; its mode is around 12.4—a long way away from its mean. The histograms below show that difference visually.

Re: 11/29/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:01 pm
by Al_Dente
HAPPY HOUR
cat is in control.png.png

Re: 11/29/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:11 pm
by Al_Dente
When TICK and AD can’t hold their breadth for more than a day = chop choppy chop
Passing a tax bill has already been more-than-baked-in, so ……

1129ad.png.png

Re: 11/29/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:17 pm
by Trades with cats
Looking at FINVIZ.com it is real clear that what ever was selling stopped at noon. Interesting that the foreign indexes were similarly hit. Also the dollar stopped dropping and the VIX stopped rising. Bonds sure didn't show any pattern that I could see. I am sure it will all be explained tonight by the media. :)

Now we will be subject to an absolute barrage of articles by the permabears about this warning. I personally will consider them to be balderdash, as clearly there was a cause for today's action and all it showed was what we already knew. The geniuses in Washington have eliminated market makers and pretended that high speed trading firms would provide liquidity when they have proven time and time again that they just switch off. The real warning is that when the major event happens it will be as it always has been for us retail types, no access to the markets. Only real protection in my opinion is a defensive options hedging strategy because with these new highs all the relatives think they are can't lose smart and won't take any profits. Sigh.

Re: 11/29/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:19 pm
by Trades with cats
Sorry wasn't clear. Trying to convince family members to hedge at this point seems the only possible thing to do because they sure won't listen if you say time to take profits.

Re: 11/29/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:29 pm
by Al_Dente
Yes, agree, but real problem is that we’ve been shouting “protection” for soooo long that “we” are now viewed as “crying wolf.”
So what, you don’t buy car insurance because you’re certain you’ll never get in a car crash?
Preposterous
You buy car insurance every year.... you buy market insurance every year... why not...

Re: 11/29/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:33 pm
by Al_Dente
what's that u say?
market insurance is too expensive?
so is car insurance, but i'll be ok in a crash

Re: 11/29/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:39 pm
by fehro
someone wants ATH for TRANsports.. just 15 points short :roll: :roll: +311points +3.29%