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Re: 12/14/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:53 am
by Trades with cats
ES 03-18 (2 BetterRenko(17)) 2017_12_14.png
2 brick Renko

I cleaned things up by dropping the pivot lines, then I extended each days POC. If this doesn't look like a broad rounded top then I guess you could hope for a consolidation before breaking higher on year end retail trade, assuming they have any sideline money left. After all, we either need a new catalyst or we have to face the very real possibility of exhaustion. Small caps are a great example of longer term exhaustion.

Re: 12/14/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:03 pm
by Al_Dente
UGAZ Reverse Split
PR Newswire — 6:10 PM ET 12/13/2017
-- Credit Suisse announced that it will implement a 1-for-10 reverse split of its 3x Long Natural Gas ETN ("UGAZ"), effective as of December 20, 2017.

Re: 12/14/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:09 pm
by te_fern
Al_Dente wrote:UGAZ Reverse Split
PR Newswire — 6:10 PM ET 12/13/2017
-- Credit Suisse announced that it will implement a 1-for-10 reverse split of its 3x Long Natural Gas ETN ("UGAZ"), effective as of December 20, 2017.


Have you heard about any splits from Direxion?

Re: 12/14/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:11 pm
by te_fern
Smalls are definitely struggling!

Re: 12/14/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:13 pm
by te_fern
Levered smalls could be headed to that first support pivot...

Re: 12/14/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:18 pm
by Trades with cats
Nice, we finally move and it is looking like a sell down into the London/Frankfurt close.

Re: 12/14/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:19 pm
by fehro
fehro wrote:too early.. fwiw..


be careful on RUT nears 20d/50d confluence.. it goes.. will get ugly fast… VIXes still red.. bonds nHOD take out yHOD.. careful

Re: 12/14/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:20 pm
by Al_Dente
te_fern wrote:Have you heard about any splits from Direxion?

no, but i could easily miss an announcement

Re: 12/14/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:44 pm
by te_fern
Al_Dente wrote:
te_fern wrote:Have you heard about any splits from Direxion?

no, but i could easily miss an announcement


Sorry, I asked you instead of Googling it. From what I can tell, no splits announced. Thanks Boss!

Re: 12/14/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:54 pm
by Cobra
maybe the low was in for today.

Re: 12/14/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:56 pm
by Trades with cats
ES 03-18 (1100 Tick) 2017_12_14.png

Moment of truth as we are back to VWAP

Re: 12/14/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:08 pm
by Cobra

Re: 12/14/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:14 pm
by Al_Dente
Here’s what the options traders think (inverted volatility)
60min
1214vol.png.png

Re: 12/14/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:48 pm
by Trades with cats
So beyond my understanding is all the derivative holders positioning for the big expiration tomorrow, but I do know it makes today not normal. Also the volume overnight was really low. The reaction to the Fed release was non-existent.

I don't want to be the kids in the horror movie who ignore the car and instead hide in the shed filled with chain saws, but we have been in this creepy place where the markets look like they could turn down so very many times the last couple of years. And expecting a down turn has been a widow maker trade while being a lemming and buying the dip has been pure genius, and it will continue to be, until it isn't. So far today is an isn't. But Pasta Boss's reference to the Hirsch seasonal charts clearly show that we should feel hesitant and concerned right now because it is the dark before the December rally.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:49 pm
by MrMiyagi
SPX Double bottom or kick to the groin?

Re: 12/14/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:52 pm
by Al_Dente
Update on rotation:
1214rotation.png

And here is Relative Strength/Rotation in a few commodities and internationals :o
1214rotation commod.png

Re: 12/14/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:55 pm
by Al_Dente
Trades with cats wrote:..........I don't want to be the kids in the horror movie who ignore the car and instead hide in the shed filled with chain saws :lol: :lol: :lol:
But Pasta Boss's reference to the Hirsch seasonal charts clearly show that we should feel hesitant and concerned right now because it is the dark before the December rally.

also remember this old post from hirsch
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/16832 ... -the-bulls

Re: 12/14/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:05 pm
by Al_Dente
Box
SPY
1min
1214spy box.png.png

Re: 12/14/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:16 pm
by Cobra
100% mm, so maybe the pullback will have small legs.

Re: 12/14/2017 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:23 pm
by fehro
fehro wrote:
fehro wrote:too early.. fwiw..


be careful on RUT nears 20d/50d confluence.. it goes.. will get ugly fast… VIXes still red.. bonds nHOD take out yHOD.. careful


candles weaken… RUT <20d.. 50d next.. if "AAPL" cracks 4day support NDX/COMPQ/TRANS outside reversals -ish at these levels VIXes weak.. red still no fear